2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Nevada [6 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-07-06 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-08-15 14:32 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Youngkin Biden vs Pence Harris vs Trump Biden vs Christie || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-07-06 00:00
Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]
45.0%
42.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-07-05 2023-07-06
2023-07-07 2023-07-07 18:14
2023-07-06 00:00
Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]
36.0%
35.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-07-05 2023-07-06
2023-07-07 2023-07-07 18:10
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime w/NL [2]
39.0%
39.0%
TIED
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:32
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime [2]
51.0%
49.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:49
2023-05-23 12:00
McLaughlin
47.0%
48.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2023-05-22 2023-05-24
2023-06-06 2023-06-07 01:04
2023-05-17 12:00
Vote TXT
40.1%
48.5%
Trump by 8.3%
2023-05-15 2023-05-19
2023-05-22 2023-05-26 18:27
2023-04-22 12:00
Noble Predictive Insights
48.0%
40.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2023-04-18 2023-04-26
2023-05-02 2023-05-02 14:30
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-04-19 00:00
Public Opinion Strategies
46.0%
45.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-04-17 2023-04-20
2023-04-24 2023-04-25 13:59
2023-02-03 00:00
OH Predictive
40.0%
42.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2023-01-30 2023-02-06
2023-02-09 2023-03-25 00:49
2022-11-09 00:00
Rasmussen
41.0%
45.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2022-11-08 2022-11-09
2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:53
2022-10-26 00:00
Susquehanna
47.0%
48.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2022-10-24 2022-10-27
2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:18
2022-10-15 12:00
Rasmussen
37.0%
49.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2022-10-13 2022-10-17
2022-10-21 2023-03-23 05:08
2022-09-09 12:00
Emerson
39.8%
42.5%
Trump by 2.7%
2022-09-08 2022-09-10
2022-09-13 2023-03-22 03:04
2022-07-09 00:00
Emerson
40.1%
43.0%
Trump by 2.9%
2022-07-07 2022-07-10
2022-07-13 2023-03-21 01:37
2022-03-23 00:00
Blueprint
34.2%
44.1%
Trump by 9.9%
2022-03-21 2022-03-24
2022-03-25 2023-03-20 15:09
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
50.1%
47.7%
DEM by 2.4%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-16 15:27
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.9%
45.5%
DEM by 2.4%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:50
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.4%
45.7%
DEM by 6.7%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:46
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
55.2%
42.7%
DEM by 12.5%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:26
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
47.9%
50.5%
REP by 2.6%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:51
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
46.0%
49.5%
REP by 3.5%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:26
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
43.9%
42.9%
DEM by 1.0%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 16:05
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
37.4%
34.7%
DEM by 2.6%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:18
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
37.9%
58.9%
REP by 20.9%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:19
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
32.0%
65.9%
REP by 33.9%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:30
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
26.9%
65.5%
REP by 38.6%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:52
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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