2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Nevada [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-05-20 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-24 04:26 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

40.0%

13.8%

46.2%

Trump
by 6.2%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:26

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

39.8%

16.2%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:24

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

42.9%

5.9%

51.2%

Trump
by 8.3%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:22

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

41.5%

8.9%

49.6%

Trump
by 8.1%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:18

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

43.0%

13.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:10

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:07

2024-05-11 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-05-08
2024-05-13

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:26

2024-05-11 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-13

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:24

2024-05-10 00:00

Benenson [2]

40.0%

11.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-23 22:33

2024-05-10 00:00

Benenson w/5P [2]

35.0%

22.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-23 22:30

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV [4]

38.0%

11.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:10

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

30.0%

26.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:08

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV [4]

38.0%

12.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:06

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

27.0%

32.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:03

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

37.1%

20.8%

42.1%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 16:11

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

49.3%

0.0%

50.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 16:01

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson [3]

44.2%

10.7%

45.1%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:59

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

43.8%

5.9%

50.3%

Trump
by 6.5%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 05:36

2024-04-11 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

6.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-14

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 14:47

2024-04-11 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

34.0%

18.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-14

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 14:41

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:37

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

35.0%

28.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:36

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

38.0%

20.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:34

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

33.0%

30.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:31

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:31

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

39.0%

18.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:29

2024-03-14 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

36.0%

23.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-15

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:46

2024-03-14 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.7%

0.0%

51.3%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-03-12
2024-03-15

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:43

2024-03-14 00:00

Emerson [3]

41.2%

14.9%

43.9%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-03-12
2024-03-15

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:40

2024-03-12 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-15

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:16

2024-03-12 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

36.0%

22.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-15

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:13

2024-03-02 00:00

Noble Predictive w/5P [2]

33.0%

27.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-02-27
2024-03-05

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:05

2024-03-02 00:00

Noble Predictive [2]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-02-27
2024-03-05

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:00

2024-02-18 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

34.3%

21.4%

44.3%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-02-16
2024-02-19

2024-02-23
2024-02-23 01:53

2024-02-18 00:00

Emerson [2]

40.2%

13.8%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.8%

2024-02-16
2024-02-19

2024-02-22
2024-02-23 01:51

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

10.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:47

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:44

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:14

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:12

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:11

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

40.0%

12.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:22

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

31.0%

26.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:17

2024-01-07 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

38.8%

19.0%

42.2%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-01-05
2024-01-08

2024-01-09
2024-01-10 04:39

2024-01-07 00:00

Emerson [2]

45.3%

7.7%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-01-05
2024-01-08

2024-01-09
2024-01-10 04:36

2023-12-05 12:00

Change Research

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-12-03
2023-12-07

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:17

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:50

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

21.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:46

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

35.0%

26.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:11

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:09

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

39.4%

14.4%

46.2%

Trump
by 6.8%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:32

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

44.2%

8.5%

47.3%

Trump
by 3.1%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:29

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

34.0%

26.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:01

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

31.0%

31.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:59

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

33.0%

26.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:39

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

41.0%

7.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:36

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

31.0%

30.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:13

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

41.0%

7.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:10

2023-10-25 00:00

Tarrance

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2023-10-23
2023-10-26

2023-11-02
2023-11-02 19:21

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

11.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 15:57

2023-10-03 00:00

SSRS

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-09-29
2023-10-06

2023-10-10
2023-10-11 04:32

2023-07-06 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-07-05
2023-07-06

2023-07-07
2023-07-07 18:14

2023-07-06 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]

36.0%

29.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-07-05
2023-07-06

2023-07-07
2023-07-07 18:10

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

39.0%

22.0%

39.0%

TIED

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:32

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:49

2023-05-23 12:00

McLaughlin

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-05-22
2023-05-24

2023-06-06
2023-06-07 01:04

2023-05-17 12:00

Vote TXT

40.1%

11.4%

48.5%

Trump
by 8.3%

2023-05-15
2023-05-19

2023-05-22
2023-05-26 18:27

2023-04-22 12:00

Noble Predictive Insights

48.0%

12.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2023-04-18
2023-04-26

2023-05-02
2023-05-02 14:30

2023-04-19 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-04-17
2023-04-20

2023-04-24
2023-04-25 13:59

2023-02-03 00:00

OH Predictive

40.0%

18.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-01-30
2023-02-06

2023-02-09
2023-03-25 00:49

2022-11-09 00:00

Rasmussen

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2022-11-08
2022-11-09

2022-12-02
2023-03-24 06:53

2022-10-26 00:00

Susquehanna

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2022-10-24
2022-10-27

2022-11-02
2023-03-24 02:18

2022-10-15 12:00

Rasmussen

37.0%

14.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2022-10-13
2022-10-17

2022-10-21
2023-03-23 05:08

2022-09-09 12:00

Emerson

39.8%

17.7%

42.5%

Trump
by 2.7%

2022-09-08
2022-09-10

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 03:04

2022-07-09 00:00

Emerson

40.1%

16.9%

43.0%

Trump
by 2.9%

2022-07-07
2022-07-10

2022-07-13
2023-03-21 01:37

2022-03-23 00:00

Blueprint

34.2%

21.7%

44.1%

Trump
by 9.9%

2022-03-21
2022-03-24

2022-03-25
2023-03-20 15:09

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

50.1%

2.3%

47.7%

DEM
by 2.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 15:27

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.9%

6.6%

45.5%

DEM
by 2.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:50

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.4%

2.0%

45.7%

DEM
by 6.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:46

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

55.2%

2.2%

42.7%

DEM
by 12.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:26

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.9%

1.7%

50.5%

REP
by 2.6%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:51

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

46.0%

4.5%

49.5%

REP
by 3.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:26

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

43.9%

13.2%

42.9%

DEM
by 1.0%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 16:05

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.4%

27.9%

34.7%

DEM
by 2.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:18

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

37.9%

3.2%

58.9%

REP
by 20.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:19

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

32.0%

2.2%

65.9%

REP
by 33.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:30

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

26.9%

7.6%

65.5%

REP
by 38.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:52

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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