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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Tennessee [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-06-18 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-07-07 17:49 UTC

Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-06-18 12:00

Targoz RV [2]

32.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-22

2023-07-06
2023-07-07 17:49

2023-06-18 12:00

Targoz LV [2]

34.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-22

2023-07-06
2023-07-07 17:45

2023-04-21 12:00

SSRS

26.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2023-04-19
2023-04-23

2023-05-03
2023-05-03 16:37

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

37.5%

60.7%

REP
by 23.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 05:51

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

34.7%

60.7%

REP
by 26.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 17:51

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

39.1%

59.5%

REP
by 20.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:12

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

41.8%

56.9%

REP
by 15.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:51

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

42.5%

56.8%

REP
by 14.3%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:10

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.3%

51.2%

REP
by 3.9%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:02

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

48.0%

45.6%

DEM
by 2.4%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

47.1%

42.4%

DEM
by 4.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:55

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

41.6%

57.9%

REP
by 16.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:59

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

41.6%

57.8%

REP
by 16.3%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:05

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

48.4%

48.7%

REP
by 0.3%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:17

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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