2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Florida [30 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-06-10 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-06-17 17:04 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-06-10 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

37.0%

20.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-11

2024-06-17
2024-06-17 17:04

2024-06-09 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-09

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 16:49

2024-06-09 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

37.0%

20.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-09

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 16:47

2024-06-09 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-09

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 16:41

2024-06-09 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-09

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 16:34

2024-06-08 00:00

Tyson

36.0%

18.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-06-06
2024-06-09

2024-06-11
2024-06-12 01:39

2024-06-03 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

40.0%

13.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-06-01
2024-06-04

2024-06-06
2024-06-07 04:39

2024-06-03 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-06-01
2024-06-04

2024-06-06
2024-06-07 04:36

2024-05-13 12:00

YouGov w/3P [2]

36.0%

15.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-05-10
2024-05-16

2024-05-19
2024-05-20 17:17

2024-05-13 12:00

YouGov [2]

45.0%

1.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-05-10
2024-05-16

2024-05-19
2024-05-20 17:15

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

39.0%

13.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:41

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

47.0%

0.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:39

2024-05-03 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

38.0%

15.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-04

2024-05-13
2024-05-13 18:00

2024-05-03 00:00

Cherry w/3P [2]

37.0%

17.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-07

2024-05-10
2024-05-10 15:15

2024-05-03 00:00

Cherry [2]

42.0%

7.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-07

2024-05-10
2024-05-10 15:14

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

42.2%

6.6%

51.2%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 05:23

2024-04-16 12:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

40.1%

11.1%

48.8%

Trump
by 8.7%

2024-04-15
2024-04-17

2024-04-18
2024-04-18 18:09

2024-04-16 12:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

38.3%

13.3%

48.4%

Trump
by 10.1%

2024-04-15
2024-04-17

2024-04-18
2024-04-18 18:07

2024-04-16 12:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

42.7%

6.0%

51.3%

Trump
by 8.6%

2024-04-15
2024-04-17

2024-04-18
2024-04-18 18:04

2024-04-16 12:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

41.5%

8.2%

50.3%

Trump
by 8.8%

2024-04-15
2024-04-17

2024-04-18
2024-04-18 18:00

2024-04-10 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

34.6%

16.2%

49.2%

Trump
by 14.6%

2024-04-09
2024-04-10

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 19:13

2024-04-10 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

43.6%

0.0%

56.4%

Trump
by 12.8%

2024-04-09
2024-04-10

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 19:11

2024-04-10 00:00

Emerson [3]

37.9%

10.8%

51.3%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-04-09
2024-04-10

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 19:09

2024-04-06 12:00

Ipsos w/3P

31.0%

30.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-04-05
2024-04-07

2024-04-14
2024-04-15 12:24

2024-03-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

39.0%

15.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 18:42

2024-03-12 12:00

St. Pete

42.0%

10.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-11
2024-03-13

2024-03-15
2024-03-15 19:57

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Lean LV [16]

43.7%

0.0%

56.3%

Trump
by 12.6%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:35

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data LV [16]

38.1%

10.6%

51.3%

Trump
by 13.2%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:33

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/6P [16]

37.2%

12.8%

50.0%

Trump
by 12.8%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:31

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/6P [16]

35.4%

15.8%

48.8%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:26

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/3P [16]

37.2%

12.2%

50.6%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:24

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/3P [16]

36.7%

13.2%

50.1%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:22

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV [16]

38.7%

9.5%

51.8%

Trump
by 13.1%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:21

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P LV [16]

37.5%

11.8%

50.7%

Trump
by 13.2%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-28 19:18

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Lean Total [16]

43.4%

0.0%

56.6%

Trump
by 13.2%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:37

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data Total [16]

37.0%

11.9%

51.1%

Trump
by 14.1%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:35

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/6P [16]

36.3%

14.2%

49.5%

Trump
by 13.2%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:33

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/6P [16]

34.5%

17.6%

47.9%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:31

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/3P [16]

36.4%

13.7%

49.9%

Trump
by 13.5%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:28

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/3P [16]

35.7%

15.1%

49.2%

Trump
by 13.5%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:26

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total [16]

38.0%

10.6%

51.4%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:24

2024-03-10 00:00

Big Data w/Gen3P Total [16]

36.7%

13.2%

50.1%

Trump
by 13.4%

2024-03-08
2024-03-11

2024-03-15
2024-04-18 18:20

2023-12-29 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

34.0%

21.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2023-12-28
2023-12-30

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:32

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

34.0%

22.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 01:44

2023-11-14 12:00

Cygnal Total w/3P [4]

37.0%

19.3%

43.7%

Trump
by 6.7%

2023-11-13
2023-11-15

2023-11-20
2023-11-21 16:56

2023-11-14 12:00

Cygnal Definitely w/3P [4]

29.9%

34.4%

35.7%

Trump
by 5.8%

2023-11-13
2023-11-15

2023-11-20
2023-11-21 16:53

2023-11-14 12:00

Cygnal Total [4]

43.1%

9.2%

47.7%

Trump
by 4.6%

2023-11-13
2023-11-15

2023-11-20
2023-11-21 16:51

2023-11-14 12:00

Cygnal Definitely [4]

35.2%

24.4%

40.4%

Trump
by 5.2%

2023-11-13
2023-11-15

2023-11-20
2023-11-21 16:49

2023-11-04 00:00

Mainstreet

38.6%

12.1%

49.3%

Trump
by 10.7%

2023-10-27
2023-11-11

2023-11-16
2023-11-17 02:42

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 02:01

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton [2]

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 01:58

2023-06-29 12:00

Mainstreet

39.0%

12.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2023-06-27
2023-07-01

2023-07-10
2023-07-11 00:48

2023-03-17 12:00

MRS

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-03-15
2023-03-19

2023-03-19
2023-03-25 07:13

2023-03-14 12:00

Emerson

44.2%

12.3%

43.5%

Biden
by 0.7%

2023-03-13
2023-03-15

2023-03-17
2023-03-25 06:58

2023-03-02 12:00

UNF

43.0%

7.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-02-25
2023-03-07

2023-03-09
2023-03-25 03:52

2022-11-17 00:00

Victory w/Lean [2]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2022-11-16
2022-11-17

2022-11-21
2023-03-24 05:17

2022-11-17 00:00

Victory [2]

48.3%

8.9%

42.8%

Biden
by 5.5%

2022-11-16
2022-11-17

2022-11-21
2023-03-24 05:13

2022-11-09 00:00

Rasmussen

40.0%

11.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2022-11-08
2022-11-09

2022-12-02
2023-03-24 06:50

2022-10-14 12:00

FAU

41.4%

13.5%

45.1%

Trump
by 3.7%

2022-10-12
2022-10-16

2022-10-21
2023-03-23 04:51

2022-09-17 00:00

Suffolk

44.4%

9.0%

46.6%

Trump
by 2.2%

2022-09-15
2022-09-18

2022-09-21
2023-03-23 01:37

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

32.0%

29.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 02:54

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

41.0%

10.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 00:47

2022-01-28 00:00

Suffolk

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2022-01-26
2022-01-29

2022-02-01
2023-03-20 14:00

2021-09-17 12:00

Victory

51.2%

0.0%

48.8%

Biden
by 2.4%

2021-09-16
2021-09-18

2021-10-12
2023-03-20 09:11

2021-08-17 00:00

St Pete Unweighted [2]

47.9%

4.6%

47.5%

Biden
by 0.4%

2021-08-16
2021-08-17

2021-08-17
2023-07-07 18:33

2021-08-17 00:00

St Pete Weighted [2]

48.0%

4.6%

47.4%

Biden
by 0.6%

2021-08-16
2021-08-17

2021-08-17
2023-03-20 07:22

2021-08-07 12:00

Susquehanna

50.0%

8.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2021-08-04
2021-08-10

2021-08-23
2023-03-20 07:28

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

47.9%

0.9%

51.2%

REP
by 3.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 02:35

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.8%

3.2%

49.0%

REP
by 1.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:21

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.0%

0.9%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.0%

0.8%

48.2%

DEM
by 2.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:48

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.1%

0.8%

52.1%

REP
by 5.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:26

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

48.8%

2.3%

48.9%

REP
by 0.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:52

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

48.0%

9.7%

42.3%

DEM
by 5.7%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:31

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.0%

20.1%

40.9%

REP
by 1.9%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:16

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.5%

0.6%

60.9%

REP
by 22.4%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 05:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

34.7%

0.0%

65.3%

REP
by 30.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:24

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.5%

6.0%

55.5%

REP
by 17.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:24

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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