2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-03-26 11:43 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

39.6%

17.0%

43.4%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:28

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.2%

0.0%

51.8%

Trump
by 3.6%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:25

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson [3]

43.3%

10.7%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:22

2024-03-11 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-14

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:43

2024-03-11 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-14

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:34

2024-02-23 00:00

Kaplan

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-02-22
2024-02-23

2024-02-26
2024-02-28 03:13

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

37.1%

22.1%

40.8%

Trump
by 3.7%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-27
2024-02-28 03:50

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson [2]

42.4%

12.4%

45.2%

Trump
by 2.8%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-27
2024-02-28 03:47

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 07:08

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

24.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 07:06

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-01-28 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-01-26
2024-01-30

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 17:39

2024-01-28 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

39.0%

19.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-26
2024-01-30

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 17:35

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette LV w/5P [6]

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:27

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:24

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette LV [6]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:21

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette RV w/5P [6]

37.0%

23.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:19

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:17

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette RV [6]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:16

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

49.3%

0.0%

50.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:48

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:47

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:46

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:46

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

22.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:43

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:18

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

34.0%

26.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:14

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners [2]

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 07:03

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners w/5P [2]

37.0%

31.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 06:57

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

36.0%

26.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:34

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:32

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

42.6%

13.6%

43.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:08

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

45.0%

9.8%

45.2%

Trump
by 0.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:04

2023-10-30 00:00

Marquette w/Lean [2]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-02

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 00:53

2023-10-30 00:00

Marquette [2]

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-02

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 00:51

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

37.0%

28.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:17

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

37.0%

28.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:15

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

36.0%

28.0%

36.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:17

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:11

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

35.0%

30.0%

35.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:31

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:27

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 16:12

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

39.5%

18.5%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.5%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-12
2023-10-13 02:00

2023-09-26 00:00

PPP

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-09-25
2023-09-26

2023-09-29
2023-09-29 16:03

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

37.0%

23.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:38

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

53.0%

0.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:54

2023-06-10 12:00

Marquette

52.0%

5.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2023-06-08
2023-06-12

2023-06-28
2023-06-29 06:17

2023-04-19 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-04-17
2023-04-20

2023-04-24
2023-04-24 15:22

2022-10-28 12:00

Emerson

44.2%

12.9%

42.9%

Biden
by 1.3%

2022-10-27
2022-10-29

2022-11-02
2023-03-24 02:26

2022-09-17 12:00

Emerson

44.8%

11.2%

44.0%

Biden
by 0.8%

2022-09-16
2022-09-18

2022-09-20
2023-03-22 03:56

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]

38.0%

15.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-07-04 00:51

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [2]

42.0%

6.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-03-20 13:36

2021-10-29 00:00

Marquette

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2021-10-26
2021-10-31

2021-11-03
2023-03-20 09:59

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.5%

1.7%

48.8%

DEM
by 0.6%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 06:24

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.5%

6.3%

47.2%

REP
by 0.8%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:34

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.8%

1.3%

45.9%

DEM
by 6.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:19

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

56.2%

1.5%

42.3%

DEM
by 13.9%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 05:22

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

49.7%

1.0%

49.3%

DEM
by 0.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:19

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.8%

4.6%

47.6%

DEM
by 0.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:16

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

48.8%

12.7%

38.5%

DEM
by 10.3%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:53

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

41.1%

22.1%

36.8%

DEM
by 4.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:09

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

51.4%

0.8%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:13

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

45.0%

0.8%

54.2%

REP
by 9.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:46

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

43.2%

8.9%

47.9%

REP
by 4.7%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:35

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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