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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Washington [12 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2022-10-01 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-03-23 03:01 UTC

Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2022-10-01 00:00

Emerson

49.4%

38.7%

Biden
by 10.7%

2022-09-30
2022-10-01

2022-10-04
2023-03-23 03:01

2022-08-16 12:00

McLaughlin

54.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2022-08-15
2022-08-17

2022-08-19
2023-03-21 03:58

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

58.0%

38.8%

DEM
by 19.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 06:19

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

52.5%

36.8%

DEM
by 15.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:26

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

56.2%

41.3%

DEM
by 14.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:17

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.7%

40.5%

DEM
by 17.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 03:19

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

52.8%

45.6%

DEM
by 7.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:17

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.2%

44.6%

DEM
by 5.6%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:12

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.8%

37.3%

DEM
by 12.5%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:51

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.4%

32.0%

DEM
by 11.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:06

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

50.1%

48.5%

DEM
by 1.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:09

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

42.9%

55.8%

REP
by 13.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:43

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

37.3%

49.7%

REP
by 12.3%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:31

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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