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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Idaho [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-08 06:07 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

30.5%

9.7%

59.8%

Trump
by 29.3%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 20:17

2024-04-15 00:00

Civiqs

28.0%

9.0%

63.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2024-04-13
2024-04-16

2024-04-24
2024-05-08 06:07

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

25.8%

19.7%

54.5%

Trump
by 28.7%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:36

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

33.1%

3.0%

63.9%

REP
by 30.8%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 05:47

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

27.5%

13.3%

59.3%

REP
by 31.8%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:38

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

32.6%

2.9%

64.5%

REP
by 31.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:25

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

36.1%

2.4%

61.5%

REP
by 25.4%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 05:27

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

30.3%

1.4%

68.4%

REP
by 38.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:41

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

27.6%

5.2%

67.2%

REP
by 39.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 06:04

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

33.7%

14.2%

52.2%

REP
by 18.5%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:47

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

28.4%

29.6%

42.0%

REP
by 13.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:21

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

36.0%

1.9%

62.1%

REP
by 26.1%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 08:11

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

26.4%

1.3%

72.4%

REP
by 46.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:31

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

25.2%

8.4%

66.5%

REP
by 41.3%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:30

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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