2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Montana [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-06 05:22 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

33.9%

7.4%

58.7%

Trump
by 24.8%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 05:22

2024-02-29 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

28.3%

23.2%

48.5%

Trump
by 20.2%

2024-02-26
2024-03-02

2024-03-06
2024-03-07 21:25

2024-02-29 00:00

Emerson [2]

35.0%

9.4%

55.6%

Trump
by 20.6%

2024-02-26
2024-03-02

2024-03-06
2024-03-07 21:22

2024-02-14 00:00

SurveyUSA

29.0%

20.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 22.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-15

2024-02-19
2024-02-20 03:01

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

28.3%

23.1%

48.6%

Trump
by 20.3%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-17
2023-10-17 19:32

2023-09-18 00:00

Change Research w/4P [3]

28.0%

23.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2023-09-16
2023-09-19

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:16

2023-09-18 00:00

Change Research w/3P [3]

30.0%

19.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2023-09-16
2023-09-19

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:12

2023-09-18 00:00

Change Research [3]

37.0%

9.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2023-09-16
2023-09-19

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:08

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-08-15 00:00

JL Partners

39.0%

10.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2023-08-12
2023-08-17

2023-08-30
2023-09-02 17:13

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

27.0%

42.0%

31.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 03:10

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

36.0%

15.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 01:31

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

40.6%

2.5%

56.9%

REP
by 16.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 15:09

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

35.8%

8.1%

56.2%

REP
by 20.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:27

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

41.7%

3.0%

55.4%

REP
by 13.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:41

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

47.3%

3.2%

49.5%

REP
by 2.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:16

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

38.6%

2.4%

59.1%

REP
by 20.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:29

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

33.4%

8.2%

58.4%

REP
by 25.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:00

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

41.2%

14.7%

44.1%

REP
by 2.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:41

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.6%

27.3%

35.1%

DEM
by 2.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:33

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

46.2%

1.7%

52.1%

REP
by 5.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 12:37

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.2%

1.4%

60.5%

REP
by 22.3%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:51

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

32.4%

10.8%

56.8%

REP
by 24.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:04

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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