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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Colorado [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-04-04 05:25 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-17 12:00

New Bridge / Aspect Total [2]

49.0%

12.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2024-03-15
2024-03-19

2024-04-03
2024-04-04 05:25

2024-03-17 12:00

New Bridge / Aspect Definitely [2]

38.0%

32.0%

30.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2024-03-15
2024-03-19

2024-04-03
2024-04-04 05:20

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

48.3%

7.6%

44.1%

Biden
by 4.2%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 21:54

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

47.6%

9.8%

42.6%

Biden
by 5.0%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 21:52

2024-01-26 00:00

Emerson

41.0%

24.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2024-01-23
2024-01-28

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 17:21

2024-01-25 12:00

Global Strategy Group

49.0%

10.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2024-01-22
2024-01-28

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:04

2023-12-10 00:00

YouGov

47.0%

13.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2023-12-01
2023-12-18

2024-01-29
2024-01-30 01:12

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-11-27 00:00

Cygnal Total [2]

45.0%

18.8%

36.2%

Biden
by 8.8%

2023-11-26
2023-11-27

2023-12-15
2023-12-16 02:14

2023-11-27 00:00

Cygnal Definitely [2]

31.2%

43.4%

25.4%

Biden
by 5.8%

2023-11-26
2023-11-27

2023-12-15
2023-12-16 02:06

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

41.8%

20.6%

37.6%

Biden
by 4.2%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-16
2023-10-17 01:06

2023-05-08 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

49.0%

12.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2023-05-07
2023-05-09

2023-05-12
2023-05-12 16:52

2022-10-28 00:00

Emerson

46.6%

14.0%

39.4%

Biden
by 7.2%

2022-10-26
2022-10-29

2022-11-01
2023-03-24 01:59

2022-09-19 00:00

Emerson

45.8%

18.2%

36.0%

Biden
by 9.8%

2022-09-18
2022-09-19

2022-09-22
2023-03-23 02:05

2022-07-25 12:00

McLaughlin Definitely [2]

43.0%

23.0%

34.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2022-07-24
2022-07-26

2022-08-12
2023-07-18 16:24

2022-07-25 12:00

McLaughlin Total [2]

50.0%

7.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2022-07-24
2022-07-26

2022-08-12
2023-03-21 03:44

2022-04-07 12:00

Blueprint

42.9%

14.0%

43.1%

Trump
by 0.2%

2022-04-06
2022-04-08

2022-04-13
2023-03-20 15:17

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

55.4%

2.7%

41.9%

DEM
by 13.5%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 01:53

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

48.2%

8.6%

43.3%

DEM
by 4.9%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:03

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

51.5%

2.4%

46.1%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:04

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

53.7%

1.6%

44.7%

DEM
by 9.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:42

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.0%

1.3%

51.7%

REP
by 4.7%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:13

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

42.4%

6.9%

50.8%

REP
by 8.4%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:45

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

44.4%

9.8%

45.8%

REP
by 1.4%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:27

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

40.1%

24.0%

35.9%

DEM
by 4.3%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:10

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

45.3%

1.7%

53.1%

REP
by 7.8%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:16

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

35.1%

1.4%

63.4%

REP
by 28.3%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:05

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

31.1%

13.9%

55.1%

REP
by 24.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:18

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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