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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - District of Columbia [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-03 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-03-15 02:31 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 District of Columbia [3 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 District of Columbia [3 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

92.2%

2.4%

5.4%

DEM
by 86.8%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 02:31

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

90.5%

5.5%

4.1%

DEM
by 86.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:15

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

90.9%

1.8%

7.3%

DEM
by 83.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:07

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

92.5%

1.0%

6.5%

DEM
by 85.9%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:46

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

89.2%

1.5%

9.3%

DEM
by 79.8%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:25

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

85.2%

5.9%

9.0%

DEM
by 76.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:50

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

85.2%

5.5%

9.3%

DEM
by 75.9%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:30

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

84.6%

6.3%

9.1%

DEM
by 75.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:15

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

82.7%

3.1%

14.3%

DEM
by 68.4%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:38

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

85.4%

0.9%

13.7%

DEM
by 71.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:13

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

74.9%

11.7%

13.4%

DEM
by 61.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:23

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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