2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Pennsylvania [19 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 02:01 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-28 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P
37.0%
19.0%
44.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2023-11-27 2023-11-29
2023-12-05 2023-12-06 02:01
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult w/4P [2]
38.0%
21.0%
41.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:27
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult [2]
44.0%
9.0%
47.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:22
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson RV [2]
43.2%
10.4%
46.4%
Trump by 3.2%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:52
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson LV [2]
45.2%
5.7%
49.1%
Trump by 3.9%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:45
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/3P [6]
36.0%
28.0%
36.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:12
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/3P [6]
35.0%
30.0%
35.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:06
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV Definitely [6]
35.0%
27.0%
38.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:07
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/Lean [6]
44.0%
7.0%
49.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:04
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV Definitely [6]
34.0%
30.0%
36.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:23
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/Lean [6]
44.0%
8.0%
48.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:19
2023-10-17 00:00
Franklin & Marshall
44.0%
14.0%
42.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-11 2023-10-22
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:50
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-10-08 00:00
Morning Consult
45.0%
9.0%
46.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-10
2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:07
2023-10-08 00:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]
39.0%
22.0%
39.0%
TIED
2023-10-07 2023-10-08
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 05:02
2023-10-08 00:00
Redfield & Wilton [2]
43.0%
15.0%
42.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-10-07 2023-10-08
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:57
2023-10-03 00:00
Emerson
36.4%
18.3%
45.3%
Trump by 8.9%
2023-10-01 2023-10-04
2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:27
2023-09-30 12:00
Quinnipiac
45.0%
8.0%
47.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2023-09-28 2023-10-02
2023-10-04 2023-10-05 05:14
2023-09-26 00:00
PPP
48.0%
7.0%
45.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-09-25 2023-09-26
2023-09-29 2023-09-29 15:57
2023-09-24 00:00
Susquehanna
47.0%
8.0%
45.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-09-19 2023-09-28
2023-10-05 2023-10-05 15:37
2023-09-16 00:00
NPA
47.0%
8.0%
45.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-09-14 2023-09-17
2023-09-21 2023-09-22 01:58
2023-08-15 00:00
Franklin & Marshall
42.0%
18.0%
40.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-08-09 2023-08-20
2023-08-24 2023-08-24 19:33
2023-06-24 12:00
Quinnipiac
46.0%
7.0%
47.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2023-06-22 2023-06-26
2023-06-28 2023-06-29 06:27
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime w/NL [2]
38.0%
19.0%
43.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:36
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime [2]
50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
TIED
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:52
2023-06-18 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]
43.0%
18.0%
39.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-06-17 2023-06-19
2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:19
2023-06-18 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]
48.0%
8.0%
44.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-06-17 2023-06-19
2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:21
2023-04-12 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies
46.0%
12.0%
42.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-04-11 2023-04-13
2023-04-16 2023-04-17 16:18
2023-04-02 00:00
Franklin & Marshall
36.0%
29.0%
35.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-03-27 2023-04-07
2023-04-13 2023-04-13 22:38
2023-02-23 00:00
Susquehanna
48.0%
11.0%
41.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2023-02-19 2023-02-26
2023-03-02 2023-03-25 02:52
2022-11-04 12:00
Targoz LV [2]
46.0%
2.0%
52.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2022-11-02 2022-11-06
2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:49
2022-11-04 12:00
Targoz RV [2]
48.0%
4.0%
48.0%
TIED
2022-11-02 2022-11-06
2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:47
2022-10-30 00:00
Emerson
44.2%
11.5%
44.3%
Trump by 0.1%
2022-10-28 2022-10-31
2022-11-03 2023-03-24 02:33
2022-09-25 00:00
Emerson
44.9%
9.2%
45.9%
Trump by 1.0%
2022-09-23 2022-09-26
2022-09-29 2023-03-23 02:39
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Definitely [2]
39.0%
31.0%
30.0%
Biden by 9.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-07-27 03:20
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Total [2]
48.0%
9.0%
43.0%
Biden by 5.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-03-22 01:51
2022-08-23 00:00
Emerson
41.7%
11.1%
47.2%
Trump by 5.5%
2022-08-22 2022-08-23
2022-08-25 2023-03-21 04:13
2022-07-23 12:00
PEM
41.7%
13.8%
44.4%
Trump by 2.7%
2022-07-22 2022-07-24
2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:45
2022-07-20 12:00
Blueprint
42.0%
17.0%
41.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2022-07-19 2022-07-21
2022-07-26 2023-03-21 02:01
2022-02-16 00:00
Blueprint
45.1%
15.0%
39.9%
Biden by 5.2%
2022-02-15 2022-02-16
2022-02-22 2023-03-20 14:20
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]
39.0%
13.0%
48.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:48
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Total [2]
45.0%
4.0%
51.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:33
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
50.0%
1.2%
48.8%
DEM by 1.2%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-17 05:34
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.5%
4.4%
48.2%
REP by 0.7%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:57
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.0%
1.4%
46.6%
DEM by 5.4%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:08
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
54.5%
1.3%
44.2%
DEM by 10.3%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:39
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
50.9%
0.7%
48.4%
DEM by 2.5%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:04
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
50.6%
3.0%
46.4%
DEM by 4.2%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:47
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
49.2%
10.9%
40.0%
DEM by 9.2%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 19:43
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
45.2%
18.7%
36.1%
DEM by 9.0%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:41
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
48.4%
0.9%
50.7%
REP by 2.3%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:47
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
46.0%
0.7%
53.3%
REP by 7.4%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:55
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
42.5%
7.9%
49.6%
REP by 7.1%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:10
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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