2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Pennsylvania [19 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 02:01 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	37.0%	19.0%	44.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 02:01
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:27
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:22
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	43.2%	10.4%	46.4%	Trump by 3.2%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:52
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	45.2%	5.7%	49.1%	Trump by 3.9%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:45
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	36.0%	28.0%	36.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:12
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	35.0%	30.0%	35.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:06
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	35.0%	27.0%	38.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:07
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:04
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	34.0%	30.0%	36.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:23
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	8.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:19
2023-10-17 00:00	Franklin & Marshall	44.0%	14.0%	42.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-11 2023-10-22	2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:50

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	45.0%	9.0%	46.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:07
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	39.0%	22.0%	39.0%	TIED	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 05:02
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	43.0%	15.0%	42.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:57
2023-10-03 00:00	Emerson	36.4%	18.3%	45.3%	Trump by 8.9%	2023-10-01 2023-10-04	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:27
2023-09-30 12:00	Quinnipiac	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-09-28 2023-10-02	2023-10-04 2023-10-05 05:14
2023-09-26 00:00	PPP	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-09-25 2023-09-26	2023-09-29 2023-09-29 15:57
2023-09-24 00:00	Susquehanna	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-09-19 2023-09-28	2023-10-05 2023-10-05 15:37
2023-09-16 00:00	NPA	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-09-14 2023-09-17	2023-09-21 2023-09-22 01:58
2023-08-15 00:00	Franklin & Marshall	42.0%	18.0%	40.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-08-09 2023-08-20	2023-08-24 2023-08-24 19:33
2023-06-24 12:00	Quinnipiac	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-06-22 2023-06-26	2023-06-28 2023-06-29 06:27
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	38.0%	19.0%	43.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:36
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	TIED	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:52
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	43.0%	18.0%	39.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:19
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:21
2023-04-12 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	46.0%	12.0%	42.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-04-11 2023-04-13	2023-04-16 2023-04-17 16:18
2023-04-02 00:00	Franklin & Marshall	36.0%	29.0%	35.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-03-27 2023-04-07	2023-04-13 2023-04-13 22:38
2023-02-23 00:00	Susquehanna	48.0%	11.0%	41.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2023-02-19 2023-02-26	2023-03-02 2023-03-25 02:52
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz LV [2]	46.0%	2.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:49
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz RV [2]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:47
2022-10-30 00:00	Emerson	44.2%	11.5%	44.3%	Trump by 0.1%	2022-10-28 2022-10-31	2022-11-03 2023-03-24 02:33
2022-09-25 00:00	Emerson	44.9%	9.2%	45.9%	Trump by 1.0%	2022-09-23 2022-09-26	2022-09-29 2023-03-23 02:39
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	39.0%	31.0%	30.0%	Biden by 9.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-07-27 03:20
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	48.0%	9.0%	43.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 01:51
2022-08-23 00:00	Emerson	41.7%	11.1%	47.2%	Trump by 5.5%	2022-08-22 2022-08-23	2022-08-25 2023-03-21 04:13
2022-07-23 12:00	PEM	41.7%	13.8%	44.4%	Trump by 2.7%	2022-07-22 2022-07-24	2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:45
2022-07-20 12:00	Blueprint	42.0%	17.0%	41.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2022-07-19 2022-07-21	2022-07-26 2023-03-21 02:01
2022-02-16 00:00	Blueprint	45.1%	15.0%	39.9%	Biden by 5.2%	2022-02-15 2022-02-16	2022-02-22 2023-03-20 14:20
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	39.0%	13.0%	48.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:48
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	45.0%	4.0%	51.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:33
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	50.0%	1.2%	48.8%	DEM by 1.2%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-17 05:34
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	47.5%	4.4%	48.2%	REP by 0.7%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:57
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.0%	1.4%	46.6%	DEM by 5.4%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:08
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	54.5%	1.3%	44.2%	DEM by 10.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:39
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	50.9%	0.7%	48.4%	DEM by 2.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:04
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	50.6%	3.0%	46.4%	DEM by 4.2%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:47
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	49.2%	10.9%	40.0%	DEM by 9.2%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 19:43
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	45.2%	18.7%	36.1%	DEM by 9.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:41
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	48.4%	0.9%	50.7%	REP by 2.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:47
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	46.0%	0.7%	53.3%	REP by 7.4%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:55
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	42.5%	7.9%	49.6%	REP by 7.1%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:10

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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