2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Pennsylvania [19 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-08-23 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-08-26 15:14 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

2024 Pennsylvania [19 EV] Poll Average

Biden		Trump

2024 Pennsylvania [19 EV] Probabilities

Biden		Trump

If the election was now:

Biden		Trump
/td>

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-08-23 12:00	SoCal LV [2]	43.0%	10.0%	47.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-23	2024-08-26 2024-08-26 15:14
2024-08-23 12:00	SoCal RV [2]	41.0%	13.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-23	2024-08-26 2024-08-26 15:10
2024-07-21 00:00	North Star w/5P [3]	35.0%	23.0%	42.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-07-20 2024-07-21	2024-07-24 2024-07-25 04:39
2024-07-21 00:00	North Star Total [3]	39.0%	13.0%	48.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2024-07-20 2024-07-21	2024-07-24 2024-07-25 04:29
2024-07-21 00:00	North Star Definitely [3]	31.0%	26.0%	43.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2024-07-20 2024-07-21	2024-07-24 2024-07-25 04:23
2024-07-21 00:00	SoCal	46.0%	4.0%	50.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-07-20 2024-07-21	2024-07-21 2024-07-25 04:07
2024-07-18 00:00	PPP [2]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-07-17 2024-07-18	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 16:07
2024-07-18 00:00	PPP w/4P [2]	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-07-17 2024-07-18	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 16:01
2024-07-17 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	41.0%	14.0%	45.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-07-16 2024-07-18	2024-07-21 2024-07-21 19:26

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-07-16 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	45.0%	6.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-07-15 2024-07-16	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 07:57
2024-07-16 00:00	Emerson w/6P [2]	39.7%	14.4%	45.9%	Trump by 6.2%	2024-07-15 2024-07-16	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 05:31
2024-07-16 00:00	Emerson [2]	42.7%	9.7%	47.6%	Trump by 4.9%	2024-07-15 2024-07-16	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 05:25
2024-07-15 00:00	Civiqs w/3P	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-07-13 2024-07-16	2024-07-19 2024-07-19 22:33
2024-07-12 00:00	PPP	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-11 2024-07-12	2024-07-22 2024-07-24 17:47
2024-07-10 12:00	Siena LV w/6P [4]	40.0%	18.0%	42.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-07-09 2024-07-11	2024-07-15 2024-07-15 17:14
2024-07-10 12:00	Siena LV [4]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-09 2024-07-11	2024-07-15 2024-07-15 17:09
2024-07-10 12:00	Siena RV w/6P [4]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-09 2024-07-11	2024-07-15 2024-07-15 16:59
2024-07-10 12:00	Siena RV [4]	44.0%	8.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-07-09 2024-07-11	2024-07-15 2024-07-15 16:50
2024-07-09 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	40.0%	15.0%	45.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-07-08 2024-07-10	2024-07-15 2024-07-16 04:53
2024-07-08 12:00	YouGov LV w/5P [2]	42.0%	13.0%	45.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-04 2024-07-12	2024-07-15 2024-07-16 18:06
2024-07-08 12:00	YouGov RV w/5P [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-04 2024-07-12	2024-07-15 2024-07-16 17:49
2024-07-05 00:00	Echelon w/6P [3]	44.0%	14.0%	42.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-08	2024-07-29 2024-07-30 01:34
2024-07-05 00:00	Echelon Definitely [3]	35.0%	29.0%	36.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-08	2024-07-29 2024-07-30 01:28
2024-07-05 00:00	Echelon Total [3]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-08	2024-07-29 2024-07-30 01:23
2024-07-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/6P [2]	41.0%	15.0%	44.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-05	2024-07-06 2024-07-06 18:58
2024-07-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	44.0%	5.0%	51.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-05	2024-07-06 2024-07-06 16:40
2024-07-01 12:00	Emerson	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-06-30 2024-07-02	2024-07-08 2024-07-09 00:15
2024-06-30 12:00	Remington	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-06-29 2024-07-01	2024-07-08 2024-07-08 16:49
2024-06-29 12:00	1983 Labs w/4P	41.0%	13.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-06-28 2024-06-30	2024-07-08 2024-07-08 22:32
2024-06-28 00:00	Cygnal w/5P [2]	38.1%	19.5%	42.4%	Trump by 4.3%	2024-06-27 2024-06-28	2024-07-01 2024-07-01 22:47
2024-06-28 00:00	Cygnal [2]	44.0%	7.7%	48.3%	Trump by 4.3%	2024-06-27 2024-06-28	2024-07-01 2024-07-01 22:38
2024-06-17 00:00	Bullfinch	45.0%	11.0%	44.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-06-14 2024-06-19	2024-07-02 2024-07-02 20:18
2024-06-16 00:00	Emerson w/5P [3]	42.2%	13.0%	44.8%	Trump by 2.6%	2024-06-13 2024-06-18	2024-06-20 2024-06-21 04:40
2024-06-16 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	48.9%	0.0%	51.1%	Trump by 2.2%	2024-06-13 2024-06-18	2024-06-20 2024-06-21 04:30
2024-06-16 00:00	Emerson [3]	45.2%	7.5%	47.3%	Trump by 2.1%	2024-06-13 2024-06-18	2024-06-20 2024-06-21 04:22
2024-06-12 12:00	Innovative Research w/3P	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-06-07 2024-06-17	2024-07-05 2024-07-11 15:03
2024-06-10 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	42.0%	14.0%	44.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-06-08 2024-06-11	2024-06-17 2024-06-17 17:18
2024-06-05 00:00	Marist LV w/6P [2]	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-06-03 2024-06-06	2024-06-12 2024-06-12 16:21
2024-06-05 00:00	Marist RV w/6P [2]	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-06-03 2024-06-06	2024-06-12 2024-06-12 16:12
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]	43.0%	15.0%	42.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 21:29
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]	41.0%	20.0%	39.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 21:23
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet LV [4]	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 21:18
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet RV [4]	43.0%	12.0%	45.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 21:08
2024-05-17 12:00	KAConsulting w/6P [2]	39.0%	20.0%	41.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-15 2024-05-19	2024-07-16 2024-07-16 16:06
2024-05-17 12:00	KAConsulting [2]	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2024-05-15 2024-05-19	2024-07-16 2024-07-16 16:05
2024-05-13 00:00	Prime w/5P [2]	45.0%	13.0%	42.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2024-05-09 2024-05-16	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 19:31
2024-05-13 00:00	Prime [2]	51.0%	0.0%	49.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-05-09 2024-05-16	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 19:19
2024-05-10 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-08 2024-05-12	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 20:47
2024-05-10 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	42.0%	13.0%	45.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-05-08 2024-05-12	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 20:30
2024-05-10 00:00	BSG/GS [2]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-05-06 2024-05-13	2024-05-23 2024-05-24 03:38
2024-05-10 00:00	BSG/GS w/5P [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-05-06 2024-05-13	2024-05-23 2024-05-24 03:29
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena LV [4]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 07:18
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena LV w/6P [4]	37.0%	22.0%	41.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 07:15
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena RV [4]	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 07:14
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena RV w/6P [4]	36.0%	24.0%	40.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 07:12
2024-05-03 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	41.0%	16.0%	43.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-02 2024-05-04	2024-05-13 2024-05-13 18:26
2024-04-27 12:00	Fabrizio Lee [2]	45.0%	6.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-04-24 2024-04-30	2024-05-07 2024-05-08 06:21
2024-04-27 12:00	Fabrizio Lee w/4P [2]	41.0%	13.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-04-24 2024-04-30	2024-05-07 2024-05-08 06:18
2024-04-27 12:00	Emerson w/5P [3]	40.8%	14.2%	45.0%	Trump by 4.2%	2024-04-25 2024-04-29	2024-04-30 2024-04-30 15:22
2024-04-27 12:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	48.8%	0.0%	51.2%	Trump by 2.4%	2024-04-25 2024-04-29	2024-04-30 2024-04-30 15:20
2024-04-27 12:00	Emerson [3]	44.5%	8.1%	47.4%	Trump by 2.9%	2024-04-25 2024-04-29	2024-04-30 2024-04-30 15:18
2024-04-22 12:00	YouGov	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-04-19 2024-04-25	2024-04-28 2024-04-28 18:50
2024-04-21 00:00	Kaplan	41.0%	13.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-04-20 2024-04-21	2024-04-26 2024-04-26 22:53
2024-04-20 12:00	Muhlenberg w/3P [2]	35.0%	30.0%	35.0%	TIED	2024-04-15 2024-04-25	2024-05-07 2024-05-08 06:15
2024-04-20 12:00	Muhlenberg [2]	41.0%	15.0%	44.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-04-15 2024-04-25	2024-05-07 2024-05-08 06:12
2024-04-17 12:00	Zogby	49.5%	5.7%	44.8%	Biden by 4.7%	2024-04-13 2024-04-21	2024-04-30 2024-05-06 09:19
2024-04-14 00:00	Beacon/Shaw [2]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-04-11 2024-04-16	2024-04-18 2024-04-19 20:31
2024-04-14 00:00	Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]	42.0%	14.0%	44.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-04-11 2024-04-16	2024-04-18 2024-04-19 20:28
2024-04-11 00:00	Morning Consult [2]	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-04-08 2024-04-13	2024-04-24 2024-04-24 15:29
2024-04-11 00:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	42.0%	15.0%	43.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-04-08 2024-04-13	2024-04-24 2024-04-24 15:20
2024-04-01 00:00	Independent Center Total [2]	38.0%	18.0%	44.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-03-29 2024-04-03	2024-04-19 2024-04-23 03:58
2024-04-01 00:00	Independent Center Definitely [2]	29.0%	35.0%	36.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-03-29 2024-04-03	2024-04-19 2024-04-23 03:52
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Lean [8]	48.9%	0.0%	51.1%	Trump by 2.2%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:54
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data [8]	42.0%	13.6%	44.4%	Trump by 2.4%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:52
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean w/4P [8]	41.6%	12.7%	45.7%	Trump by 4.1%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:50
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/4P [8]	40.0%	15.6%	44.4%	Trump by 4.4%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:48
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean w/3P [8]	39.7%	14.9%	45.4%	Trump by 5.7%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:46
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/3P [8]	38.8%	16.7%	44.5%	Trump by 5.7%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:45
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean [8]	41.3%	11.7%	47.0%	Trump by 5.7%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:43
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P [8]	40.3%	14.0%	45.7%	Trump by 5.4%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-03 2024-04-19 21:41
2024-03-24 12:00	Bullfinch w/3P	44.0%	15.0%	41.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2024-03-22 2024-03-26	2024-04-09 2024-04-10 02:35
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [4]	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:51
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:49
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]	40.0%	16.0%	44.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:47
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:44
2024-03-20 00:00	Franklin & Marshall w/4P [2]	42.0%	18.0%	40.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-03-18 2024-03-21	2024-04-04 2024-04-04 15:38
2024-03-20 00:00	Franklin & Marshall [2]	48.0%	14.0%	38.0%	Biden by 10.0%	2024-03-18 2024-03-21	2024-04-04 2024-04-04 15:35
2024-03-18 12:00	Emerson	43.8%	9.6%	46.6%	Trump by 2.8%	2024-03-16 2024-03-20	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 06:05
2024-03-16 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	45.0%	6.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-03-12 2024-03-19	2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:43
2024-03-16 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	39.0%	18.0%	43.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-03-12 2024-03-19	2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:35
2024-03-16 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	41.0%	15.0%	44.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-14 2024-03-17	2024-03-25 2024-03-25 19:01
2024-03-16 00:00	SSRS w/4P [2]	38.0%	22.0%	40.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-03-13 2024-03-18	2024-03-22 2024-03-22 15:06
2024-03-16 00:00	SSRS [2]	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2024-03-13 2024-03-18	2024-03-22 2024-03-22 15:04
2024-03-12 00:00	Emerson w/5P [3]	40.2%	16.1%	43.7%	Trump by 3.5%	2024-03-10 2024-03-13	2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:59
2024-03-12 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	48.2%	0.0%	51.8%	Trump by 3.6%	2024-03-10 2024-03-13	2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:57
2024-03-12 00:00	Emerson [3]	43.2%	9.7%	47.1%	Trump by 3.9%	2024-03-10 2024-03-13	2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:54
2024-03-10 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2024-03-08 2024-03-12	2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:31
2024-03-10 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	38.0%	18.0%	44.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-03-08 2024-03-12	2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:28
2024-03-09 12:00	Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]	42.0%	16.0%	42.0%	TIED	2024-03-07 2024-03-11	2024-03-13 2024-03-14 15:50
2024-03-09 12:00	Beacon/Shaw [2]	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-03-07 2024-03-11	2024-03-13 2024-03-14 15:43
2024-03-02 12:00	Susquehanna	50.0%	5.0%	45.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2024-02-26 2024-03-07	2024-03-25 2024-03-25 20:16
2024-02-26 12:00	Axis w/5P	40.0%	21.0%	39.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-02-25 2024-02-27	2024-03-05 2024-03-05 22:08
2024-02-15 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	43.0%	8.0%	49.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-02-12 2024-02-18	2024-02-28 2024-03-01 07:02
2024-02-15 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	36.0%	19.0%	45.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2024-02-12 2024-02-18	2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:58
2024-02-15 12:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	37.0%	21.0%	42.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-02-14 2024-02-16	2024-02-20 2024-02-21 02:42
2024-02-15 12:00	Emerson [2]	43.0%	12.0%	45.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-02-14 2024-02-16	2024-02-20 2024-02-21 02:38
2024-02-07 12:00	Chism	32.0%	28.0%	40.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-02-06 2024-02-08	2024-02-09 2024-02-10 06:06
2024-01-24 00:00	Public Opinion Strategies	42.0%	10.0%	48.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-01-22 2024-01-25	2024-02-26 2024-02-27 00:56
2024-01-23 00:00	Franklin & Marshall w/4P [2]	42.0%	21.0%	37.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2024-01-17 2024-01-28	2024-02-01 2024-02-02 03:39
2024-01-23 00:00	Franklin & Marshall [2]	43.0%	15.0%	42.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-01-17 2024-01-28	2024-02-01 2024-02-02 03:35
2024-01-20 12:00	Focaldata LV 2W [3]	48.6%	0.0%	51.4%	Trump by 2.8%	2024-01-17 2024-01-23	2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:02
2024-01-20 12:00	Focaldata LV [3]	42.0%	11.0%	47.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-01-17 2024-01-23	2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:01
2024-01-20 12:00	Focaldata All [3]	38.0%	16.0%	46.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-01-17 2024-01-23	2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:59
2024-01-19 00:00	Morning Consult [2]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-01-16 2024-01-21	2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:39
2024-01-19 00:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-01-16 2024-01-21	2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:33
2024-01-18 12:00	Susquehanna	46.8%	13.9%	39.3%	Biden by 7.5%	2024-01-15 2024-01-21	2024-01-23 2024-01-23 17:13
2024-01-06 12:00	Quinnipiac w/5P [2]	41.0%	20.0%	39.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-01-04 2024-01-08	2024-01-10 2024-01-12 05:59
2024-01-06 12:00	Quinnipiac [2]	49.0%	5.0%	46.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2024-01-04 2024-01-08	2024-01-10 2024-01-12 05:55
2023-12-29 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	39.0%	21.0%	40.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-12-28 2023-12-30	2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:46
2023-12-16 12:00	Bullfinch Total [2]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2023-12-14 2023-12-18	2023-12-18 2023-12-19 03:17
2023-12-16 12:00	Bullfinch Definitely [2]	38.0%	27.0%	35.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-12-14 2023-12-18	2023-12-18 2023-12-19 03:14
2023-12-05 12:00	Change Research	40.0%	14.0%	46.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2023-12-03 2023-12-07	2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:10
2023-12-02 00:00	Muhlenberg	42.0%	17.0%	41.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-11-20 2023-12-13	2023-12-19 2023-12-20 17:52
2023-12-02 00:00	Morning Consult [2]	44.0%	10.0%	46.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-06	2023-12-14 2023-12-15 02:09
2023-12-02 00:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	38.0%	23.0%	39.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-06	2023-12-14 2023-12-15 02:06
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	37.0%	19.0%	44.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 02:01
2023-11-18 00:00	Big Data w/5P [3]	35.4%	24.5%	40.1%	Trump by 4.7%	2023-11-16 2023-11-19	2023-11-19 2024-04-19 22:09
2023-11-18 00:00	Big Data w/3P [3]	36.0%	24.1%	39.9%	Trump by 3.9%	2023-11-16 2023-11-19	2023-11-19 2024-04-19 22:07
2023-11-18 00:00	Big Data [3]	37.0%	22.5%	40.5%	Trump by 3.5%	2023-11-16 2023-11-19	2023-11-19 2024-04-19 22:04
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:27
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:22
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	43.2%	10.4%	46.4%	Trump by 3.2%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:52
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	45.2%	5.7%	49.1%	Trump by 3.9%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:45
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	36.0%	28.0%	36.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:12
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	35.0%	30.0%	35.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:06
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	35.0%	27.0%	38.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:07
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:04
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	34.0%	30.0%	36.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:23
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	8.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:19
2023-10-17 00:00	Franklin & Marshall	44.0%	14.0%	42.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-11 2023-10-22	2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:50
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	45.0%	9.0%	46.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:07
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	39.0%	22.0%	39.0%	TIED	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 05:02
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	43.0%	15.0%	42.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:57
2023-10-03 00:00	Emerson	36.4%	18.3%	45.3%	Trump by 8.9%	2023-10-01 2023-10-04	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:27
2023-09-30 12:00	Quinnipiac	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-09-28 2023-10-02	2023-10-04 2023-10-05 05:14
2023-09-26 00:00	PPP	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-09-25 2023-09-26	2023-09-29 2023-09-29 15:57
2023-09-24 00:00	Susquehanna	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-09-19 2023-09-28	2023-10-05 2023-10-05 15:37
2023-09-16 00:00	NPA	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-09-14 2023-09-17	2023-09-21 2023-09-22 01:58
2023-08-15 00:00	Franklin & Marshall	42.0%	18.0%	40.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-08-09 2023-08-20	2023-08-24 2023-08-24 19:33
2023-06-24 12:00	Quinnipiac	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-06-22 2023-06-26	2023-06-28 2023-06-29 06:27
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	38.0%	19.0%	43.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:36
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	TIED	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:52
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	43.0%	18.0%	39.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:19
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:21
2023-04-12 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	46.0%	12.0%	42.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-04-11 2023-04-13	2023-04-16 2023-04-17 16:18
2023-04-02 00:00	Franklin & Marshall	36.0%	29.0%	35.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-03-27 2023-04-07	2023-04-13 2023-04-13 22:38
2023-02-23 00:00	Susquehanna	48.0%	11.0%	41.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2023-02-19 2023-02-26	2023-03-02 2023-03-25 02:52
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz LV [2]	46.0%	2.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:49
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz RV [2]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:47
2022-10-30 00:00	Emerson	44.2%	11.5%	44.3%	Trump by 0.1%	2022-10-28 2022-10-31	2022-11-03 2023-03-24 02:33
2022-09-25 00:00	Emerson	44.9%	9.2%	45.9%	Trump by 1.0%	2022-09-23 2022-09-26	2022-09-29 2023-03-23 02:39
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	39.0%	31.0%	30.0%	Biden by 9.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-07-27 03:20
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	48.0%	9.0%	43.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 01:51
2022-08-23 00:00	Emerson	41.7%	11.1%	47.2%	Trump by 5.5%	2022-08-22 2022-08-23	2022-08-25 2023-03-21 04:13
2022-07-23 12:00	PEM	41.7%	13.8%	44.4%	Trump by 2.7%	2022-07-22 2022-07-24	2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:45
2022-07-20 12:00	Blueprint	42.0%	17.0%	41.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2022-07-19 2022-07-21	2022-07-26 2023-03-21 02:01
2022-02-16 00:00	Blueprint	45.1%	15.0%	39.9%	Biden by 5.2%	2022-02-15 2022-02-16	2022-02-22 2023-03-20 14:20
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	39.0%	13.0%	48.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:48
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	45.0%	4.0%	51.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:33
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	50.0%	1.2%	48.8%	DEM by 1.2%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-17 05:34
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	47.5%	4.4%	48.2%	REP by 0.7%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:57
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.0%	1.4%	46.6%	DEM by 5.4%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:08
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	54.5%	1.3%	44.2%	DEM by 10.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:39
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	50.9%	0.7%	48.4%	DEM by 2.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:04
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	50.6%	3.0%	46.4%	DEM by 4.2%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:47
1996-11-05 12:00	Election1996	49.2%	10.9%	40.0%	DEM by 9.2%	1996-11-05 1996-11-05	1996-11-05 2014-02-16 19:43
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	45.2%	18.7%	36.1%	DEM by 9.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:41
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	48.4%	0.9%	50.7%	REP by 2.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:47
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	46.0%	0.7%	53.3%	REP by 7.4%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:55
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	42.5%	7.9%	49.6%	REP by 7.1%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:10

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

Page cached at 2025-05-18 10:03:27 UTC

Original calculation time was 20.548 seconds

Page displayed at 2025-05-19 12:28:16 UTC

Page generated in 0.337 seconds