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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Alaska [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-20 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-08 04:38 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-20 00:00

Bullfinch w/5P [3]

26.0%

25.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 23.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-23

2024-05-02
2024-05-08 04:38

2024-04-20 00:00

Bullfinch Total [3]

36.0%

9.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-23

2024-05-02
2024-05-08 04:35

2024-04-20 00:00

Bullfinch Definitely [3]

28.0%

29.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-23

2024-05-02
2024-05-08 04:32

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

42.8%

7.5%

49.7%

Trump
by 6.9%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 02:11

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

41.1%

7.5%

51.4%

Trump
by 10.3%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 21:39

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

40.1%

10.4%

49.5%

Trump
by 9.4%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 21:38

2024-02-27 12:00

Data for Progress

41.0%

6.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-02-23
2024-03-02

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 01:54

2023-10-16 00:00

Alaska Survey Research w/3P [2]

29.0%

34.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-10-13
2023-10-18

2023-10-23
2023-10-24 03:18

2023-10-16 00:00

Alaska Survey Research [2]

37.0%

18.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-10-13
2023-10-18

2023-10-23
2023-10-24 03:13

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-07-20 00:00

Alaska Survey Research

36.0%

21.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-07-18
2023-07-21

2023-08-14
2023-08-15 13:57

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

42.8%

4.4%

52.8%

REP
by 10.1%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 00:50

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

36.6%

12.2%

51.3%

REP
by 14.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:40

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

40.8%

4.4%

54.8%

REP
by 14.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:06

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

37.9%

2.7%

59.4%

REP
by 21.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:36

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

35.5%

3.4%

61.1%

REP
by 25.6%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:25

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

27.7%

13.7%

58.6%

REP
by 31.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:08

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

33.3%

15.9%

50.8%

REP
by 17.5%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:12

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

30.3%

30.3%

39.5%

REP
by 9.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:04

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

36.3%

4.1%

59.6%

REP
by 23.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 02:51

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

29.9%

3.5%

66.7%

REP
by 36.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:12

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

26.4%

19.2%

54.4%

REP
by 27.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:05

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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