2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Illinois [19 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-05 20:24 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Illinois [19 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 Illinois [19 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

52.9%

6.9%

40.2%

Biden
by 12.7%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 20:24

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

43.4%

22.9%

33.7%

Biden
by 9.7%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 06:13

2023-08-26 00:00

Cor Strategies

55.0%

10.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2023-08-24
2023-08-27

2023-08-30
2023-08-31 04:20

2022-10-22 12:00

Emerson

49.0%

13.9%

37.1%

Biden
by 11.9%

2022-10-20
2022-10-24

2022-10-26
2023-03-23 05:27

2022-10-11 00:00

PPP

51.0%

7.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2022-10-10
2022-10-11

2022-10-17
2023-03-23 03:36

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2022-09-22 12:00

Emerson

51.0%

10.7%

38.3%

Biden
by 12.7%

2022-09-21
2022-09-23

2022-09-28
2023-03-23 02:25

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

57.5%

1.9%

40.6%

DEM
by 17.0%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 05:52

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

55.8%

5.4%

38.8%

DEM
by 17.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:42

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

57.6%

1.7%

40.7%

DEM
by 16.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:26

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.9%

1.3%

36.8%

DEM
by 25.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 05:29

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

54.8%

0.7%

44.5%

DEM
by 10.3%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:43

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

54.6%

2.8%

42.6%

DEM
by 12.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 06:05

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

54.3%

8.9%

36.8%

DEM
by 17.5%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:48

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

48.6%

17.1%

34.3%

DEM
by 14.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.6%

0.7%

50.7%

REP
by 2.1%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 08:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

43.3%

0.5%

56.2%

REP
by 12.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:34

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.7%

8.6%

49.7%

REP
by 7.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:31

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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