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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Maryland [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-05-07 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-10 05:13 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-05-07 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

49.9%

17.6%

32.5%

Biden
by 17.4%

2024-05-06
2024-05-08

2024-05-09
2024-05-10 05:13

2024-05-07 12:00

Emerson [2]

56.0%

9.5%

34.5%

Biden
by 21.5%

2024-05-06
2024-05-08

2024-05-09
2024-05-10 05:10

2024-05-06 12:00

PPP

60.0%

8.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 28.0%

2024-05-05
2024-05-07

2024-05-08
2024-05-08 21:36

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

57.5%

8.8%

33.7%

Biden
by 23.8%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 21:25

2024-02-13 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

46.6%

22.0%

31.4%

Biden
by 15.2%

2024-02-12
2024-02-13

2024-02-14
2024-02-16 03:50

2024-02-13 00:00

Emerson [2]

54.6%

13.4%

32.0%

Biden
by 22.6%

2024-02-12
2024-02-13

2024-02-14
2024-02-16 03:48

2024-01-28 12:00

Gonzales w/3P [2]

45.4%

26.6%

28.0%

Biden
by 17.4%

2024-01-23
2024-02-02

2024-02-14
2024-02-15 02:51

2024-01-28 12:00

Gonzales [2]

53.3%

14.8%

31.9%

Biden
by 21.4%

2024-01-23
2024-02-02

2024-02-14
2024-02-15 02:47

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-09-23 12:00

Gonzales

56.1%

13.5%

30.4%

Biden
by 25.7%

2023-09-18
2023-09-28

2023-10-04
2023-10-05 04:30

2023-06-03 00:00

Gonzales

52.0%

13.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2023-05-30
2023-06-06

2023-06-14
2023-06-14 15:16

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

65.4%

2.5%

32.2%

DEM
by 33.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 06:53

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

60.3%

5.8%

33.9%

DEM
by 26.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 02:53

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

62.0%

2.1%

35.9%

DEM
by 26.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:35

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.9%

1.6%

36.5%

DEM
by 25.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:03

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

53.6%

1.9%

44.6%

DEM
by 9.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:17

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

56.6%

3.3%

40.2%

DEM
by 16.4%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:49

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

54.3%

7.5%

38.3%

DEM
by 16.0%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:33

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

49.8%

14.6%

35.6%

DEM
by 14.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:58

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.2%

0.7%

51.1%

REP
by 2.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:19

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

47.0%

0.5%

52.5%

REP
by 5.5%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:37

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.1%

8.7%

44.2%

DEM
by 3.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:54

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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