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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Georgia [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-21 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-04-15 16:13 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

43.0%

13.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:44

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

35.0%

27.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:38

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

38.0%

20.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:34

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

35.0%

27.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:31

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

42.0%

6.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:13

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

36.0%

18.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:06

2024-03-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 18:44

2024-03-13 00:00

Marist w/3P [2]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-11
2024-03-14

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:16

2024-03-13 00:00

Marist [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-11
2024-03-14

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:13

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 10:53

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

38.0%

17.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 10:43

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-08 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

1.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-04
2024-03-11

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:31

2024-03-06 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

37.1%

18.7%

44.2%

Trump
by 7.1%

2024-03-05
2024-03-07

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:26

2024-03-06 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.0%

0.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-05
2024-03-07

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:25

2024-03-06 12:00

Emerson [3]

42.1%

11.5%

46.4%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-03-05
2024-03-07

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:22

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:21

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

38.0%

17.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:18

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

36.2%

18.8%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.8%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 02:57

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson [2]

41.6%

10.5%

47.9%

Trump
by 6.3%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 02:55

2024-01-28 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

43.0%

6.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-26
2024-01-30

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 18:06

2024-01-28 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

37.0%

18.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-26
2024-01-30

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 18:00

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

48.3%

0.0%

51.7%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:55

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

39.0%

14.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:53

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

36.0%

19.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:52

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.0%

10.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:02

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 18:58

2024-01-07 12:00

University of Georgia

37.0%

18.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-03
2024-01-11

2024-01-16
2024-01-16 17:10

2023-12-29 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

34.0%

24.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-12-28
2023-12-30

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:34

2023-12-04 00:00

SSRS w/4P [2]

34.0%

24.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-11-30
2023-12-07

2023-12-11
2023-12-12 02:46

2023-12-04 00:00

SSRS [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-11-30
2023-12-07

2023-12-11
2023-12-12 02:41

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:34

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:30

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 06:53

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners w/4P [2]

36.0%

25.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 06:50

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

35.0%

20.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 01:48

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

34.0%

23.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 19:52

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.0%

11.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 19:49

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

39.7%

13.4%

46.9%

Trump
by 7.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:00

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

41.4%

9.5%

49.1%

Trump
by 7.7%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:57

2023-10-30 12:00

University of Georgia

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-03

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 01:17

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

31.0%

31.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:48

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

29.0%

35.0%

36.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:45

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

32.0%

30.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:24

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:21

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

29.0%

35.0%

36.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 15:55

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 15:52

2023-10-11 00:00

Zogby w/4P [2]

36.0%

19.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-10-09
2023-10-12

2023-10-28
2023-10-28 20:52

2023-10-11 00:00

Zogby [2]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-09
2023-10-12

2023-10-28
2023-10-28 20:49

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 15:48

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 02:10

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 02:07

2023-09-10 00:00

Rasmussen

38.0%

15.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-09-08
2023-09-11

2023-09-15
2023-09-15 16:07

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

36.0%

19.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:22

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

48.0%

0.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:41

2023-06-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]

41.0%

19.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-06-17
2023-06-19

2023-06-20
2023-08-11 06:12

2023-06-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-06-17
2023-06-19

2023-06-20
2023-06-21 06:11

2023-06-06 12:00

Cygnal

41.0%

17.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-06-05
2023-06-07

2023-06-09
2023-06-09 17:06

2023-05-16 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-05-15
2023-05-17

2023-05-19
2023-05-19 16:22

2023-04-26 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-04-25
2023-04-27

2023-05-02
2023-05-02 14:46

2022-11-29 12:00

Emerson

43.5%

13.4%

43.1%

Biden
by 0.4%

2022-11-28
2022-11-30

2022-12-01
2023-03-24 06:38

2022-11-23 12:00

UMass Lowell

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2022-11-18
2022-11-28

2022-12-05
2023-03-24 06:57

2022-11-04 12:00

Targoz LV [2]

43.0%

5.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2022-11-02
2022-11-06

2022-11-07
2023-03-24 03:36

2022-11-04 12:00

Targoz RV [2]

41.0%

7.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2022-11-02
2022-11-06

2022-11-07
2023-03-24 03:32

2022-10-30 00:00

Emerson

43.8%

9.3%

46.9%

Trump
by 3.1%

2022-10-28
2022-10-31

2022-11-03
2023-03-24 02:56

2022-10-24 00:00

Rasmussen

39.0%

14.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2022-10-23
2022-10-24

2022-10-27
2023-03-23 05:30

2022-10-07 00:00

Emerson

43.4%

11.4%

45.2%

Trump
by 1.8%

2022-10-06
2022-10-07

2022-10-11
2023-03-23 03:21

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

38.0%

28.0%

34.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 02:58

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 00:53

2022-08-29 00:00

Emerson

45.8%

3.5%

50.7%

Trump
by 4.9%

2022-08-28
2022-08-29

2022-08-30
2023-03-21 05:10

2022-07-23 12:00

PEM

39.9%

12.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 8.1%

2022-07-22
2022-07-24

2022-07-28
2023-03-21 02:36

2022-06-08 00:00

ECU

40.2%

13.1%

46.7%

Trump
by 6.5%

2022-06-06
2022-06-09

2022-06-14
2023-03-20 16:45

2022-02-16 00:00

Blueprint

36.3%

13.8%

49.9%

Trump
by 13.6%

2022-02-15
2022-02-16

2022-03-08
2023-03-20 14:31

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-07-04 00:43

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [2]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-03-20 13:14

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.5%

1.2%

49.3%

DEM
by 0.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 05:31

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

45.6%

3.6%

50.8%

REP
by 5.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:28

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

45.5%

1.2%

53.3%

REP
by 7.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:23

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

47.0%

0.8%

52.2%

REP
by 5.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 01:14

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

41.4%

0.7%

58.0%

REP
by 16.6%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:37

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.0%

2.4%

54.7%

REP
by 11.7%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 06:00

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

45.8%

7.2%

47.0%

REP
by 1.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:45

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

13.7%

42.9%

DEM
by 0.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:18

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

39.5%

0.8%

59.8%

REP
by 20.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 06:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.8%

0.0%

60.2%

REP
by 20.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:27

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

55.8%

3.3%

41.0%

DEM
by 14.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:27

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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