2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Ohio [17 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-12 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-11-17 02:51 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-12 00:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	31.3%	23.8%	44.9%	Trump by 13.6%	2023-11-10 2023-11-13	2023-11-16 2023-11-17 02:51
2023-11-12 00:00	Emerson [2]	38.3%	11.7%	50.0%	Trump by 11.7%	2023-11-10 2023-11-13	2023-11-16 2023-11-17 02:49
2023-11-01 12:00	Data for Progress	43.0%	6.0%	51.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-10-31 2023-11-02	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:12
2023-10-18 00:00	Northern w/3P [2]	35.0%	23.0%	42.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-10-16 2023-10-19	2023-11-02 2023-11-02 19:02
2023-10-18 00:00	Northern [2]	40.0%	15.0%	45.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-16 2023-10-19	2023-11-02 2023-11-02 18:57
2023-10-03 12:00	Emerson	32.6%	22.8%	44.6%	Trump by 12.0%	2023-10-02 2023-10-04	2023-10-10 2023-10-11 04:44
2023-09-18 00:00	Change Research w/4P [3]	34.0%	24.0%	42.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-09-16 2023-09-19	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:04
2023-09-18 00:00	Change Research w/3P [3]	36.0%	19.0%	45.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-09-16 2023-09-19	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 04:59
2023-09-18 00:00	Change Research [3]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-09-16 2023-09-19	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 04:56

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-07-22 00:00	Northern	39.0%	11.9%	49.1%	Trump by 10.1%	2023-07-17 2023-07-26	2023-07-28 2023-07-29 01:28
2023-07-11 00:00	Suffolk w/3P	38.2%	18.2%	43.6%	Trump by 5.4%	2023-07-09 2023-07-12	2023-07-17 2023-07-18 16:03
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz LV [2]	40.0%	3.0%	57.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:56
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz RV [2]	37.0%	7.0%	56.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:54
2022-10-31 12:00	Emerson	38.2%	11.5%	50.3%	Trump by 12.1%	2022-10-30 2022-11-01	2022-11-04 2023-03-24 03:09
2022-10-13 12:00	Northern	35.2%	9.4%	55.4%	Trump by 20.2%	2022-10-11 2022-10-15	2022-10-18 2023-03-23 04:38
2022-10-07 00:00	Emerson	39.8%	12.6%	47.6%	Trump by 7.8%	2022-10-06 2022-10-07	2022-10-12 2023-03-23 03:29
2022-09-13 00:00	Emerson	39.7%	10.5%	49.8%	Trump by 10.1%	2022-09-12 2022-09-13	2022-09-16 2023-03-22 03:17
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	31.0%	31.0%	38.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-07-27 03:14
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	41.0%	10.0%	49.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 01:34
2022-08-16 00:00	Emerson	38.9%	8.6%	52.5%	Trump by 13.6%	2022-08-15 2022-08-16	2022-08-17 2023-03-21 03:50
2022-07-23 12:00	PEM	44.1%	14.2%	41.7%	Biden by 2.4%	2022-07-22 2022-07-24	2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:42
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	45.2%	1.5%	53.3%	REP by 8.0%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-16 16:29
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	43.6%	4.8%	51.7%	REP by 8.1%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:20
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	50.7%	1.6%	47.7%	DEM by 3.0%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:05
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	51.5%	1.6%	46.9%	DEM by 4.6%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:33
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	48.7%	0.5%	50.8%	REP by 2.1%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:00
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	46.5%	3.6%	50.0%	REP by 3.5%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:42
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	47.4%	11.6%	41.0%	DEM by 6.4%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 18:19
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	40.2%	21.5%	38.4%	DEM by 1.8%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:37
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	44.2%	0.9%	55.0%	REP by 10.9%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:40
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	40.1%	1.0%	58.9%	REP by 18.8%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:49
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	40.9%	7.6%	51.5%	REP by 10.6%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:04

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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