2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Ohio [17 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-12 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-11-17 02:51 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-12 00:00
Emerson w/5P [2]
31.3%
23.8%
44.9%
Trump by 13.6%
2023-11-10 2023-11-13
2023-11-16 2023-11-17 02:51
2023-11-12 00:00
Emerson [2]
38.3%
11.7%
50.0%
Trump by 11.7%
2023-11-10 2023-11-13
2023-11-16 2023-11-17 02:49
2023-11-01 12:00
Data for Progress
43.0%
6.0%
51.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2023-10-31 2023-11-02
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:12
2023-10-18 00:00
Northern w/3P [2]
35.0%
23.0%
42.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2023-10-16 2023-10-19
2023-11-02 2023-11-02 19:02
2023-10-18 00:00
Northern [2]
40.0%
15.0%
45.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-16 2023-10-19
2023-11-02 2023-11-02 18:57
2023-10-03 12:00
Emerson
32.6%
22.8%
44.6%
Trump by 12.0%
2023-10-02 2023-10-04
2023-10-10 2023-10-11 04:44
2023-09-18 00:00
Change Research w/4P [3]
34.0%
24.0%
42.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2023-09-16 2023-09-19
2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:04
2023-09-18 00:00
Change Research w/3P [3]
36.0%
19.0%
45.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2023-09-16 2023-09-19
2023-10-11 2023-10-12 04:59
2023-09-18 00:00
Change Research [3]
43.0%
9.0%
48.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-09-16 2023-09-19
2023-10-11 2023-10-12 04:56
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-07-22 00:00
Northern
39.0%
11.9%
49.1%
Trump by 10.1%
2023-07-17 2023-07-26
2023-07-28 2023-07-29 01:28
2023-07-11 00:00
Suffolk w/3P
38.2%
18.2%
43.6%
Trump by 5.4%
2023-07-09 2023-07-12
2023-07-17 2023-07-18 16:03
2022-11-04 12:00
Targoz LV [2]
40.0%
3.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2022-11-02 2022-11-06
2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:56
2022-11-04 12:00
Targoz RV [2]
37.0%
7.0%
56.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2022-11-02 2022-11-06
2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:54
2022-10-31 12:00
Emerson
38.2%
11.5%
50.3%
Trump by 12.1%
2022-10-30 2022-11-01
2022-11-04 2023-03-24 03:09
2022-10-13 12:00
Northern
35.2%
9.4%
55.4%
Trump by 20.2%
2022-10-11 2022-10-15
2022-10-18 2023-03-23 04:38
2022-10-07 00:00
Emerson
39.8%
12.6%
47.6%
Trump by 7.8%
2022-10-06 2022-10-07
2022-10-12 2023-03-23 03:29
2022-09-13 00:00
Emerson
39.7%
10.5%
49.8%
Trump by 10.1%
2022-09-12 2022-09-13
2022-09-16 2023-03-22 03:17
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Definitely [2]
31.0%
31.0%
38.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-07-27 03:14
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Total [2]
41.0%
10.0%
49.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-03-22 01:34
2022-08-16 00:00
Emerson
38.9%
8.6%
52.5%
Trump by 13.6%
2022-08-15 2022-08-16
2022-08-17 2023-03-21 03:50
2022-07-23 12:00
PEM
44.1%
14.2%
41.7%
Biden by 2.4%
2022-07-22 2022-07-24
2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:42
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
45.2%
1.5%
53.3%
REP by 8.0%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-16 16:29
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
43.6%
4.8%
51.7%
REP by 8.1%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:20
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
50.7%
1.6%
47.7%
DEM by 3.0%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:05
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
51.5%
1.6%
46.9%
DEM by 4.6%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:33
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
48.7%
0.5%
50.8%
REP by 2.1%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:00
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
46.5%
3.6%
50.0%
REP by 3.5%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:42
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
47.4%
11.6%
41.0%
DEM by 6.4%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 18:19
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
40.2%
21.5%
38.4%
DEM by 1.8%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:37
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
44.2%
0.9%
55.0%
REP by 10.9%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:40
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
40.1%
1.0%
58.9%
REP by 18.8%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:49
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
40.9%
7.6%
51.5%
REP by 10.6%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:04
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
Page cached at 2023-12-09 20:37:37 UTC
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