Currently being updated. Automatic reload in seconds.

2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - South Carolina [9 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-02-15 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-02-21 02:35 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson

37.0%

12.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-20
2024-02-21 02:35

2024-02-08 12:00

Citadel w/5P [2]

32.0%

19.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2024-02-05
2024-02-11

2024-02-16
2024-02-17 16:52

2024-02-08 12:00

Citadel [2]

35.0%

11.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2024-02-05
2024-02-11

2024-02-16
2024-02-17 16:49

2024-02-06 12:00

Winthrop

35.0%

15.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2024-02-02
2024-02-10

2024-02-14
2024-02-15 03:13

2024-02-05 00:00

FAU LV [2]

35.9%

10.5%

53.6%

Trump
by 17.7%

2024-02-01
2024-02-08

2024-02-13
2024-02-14 05:17

2024-02-05 00:00

FAU RV [2]

34.3%

14.1%

51.6%

Trump
by 17.3%

2024-02-01
2024-02-08

2024-02-13
2024-02-14 05:15

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

32.0%

30.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 03:26

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

39.0%

10.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 02:01

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2022-08-25 00:00

BluePrint

34.0%

20.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2022-08-24
2022-08-25

2022-08-30
2023-03-21 05:20

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

43.4%

1.5%

55.1%

REP
by 11.7%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 05:45

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

40.7%

4.4%

54.9%

REP
by 14.3%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 17:33

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.1%

1.3%

54.6%

REP
by 10.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:10

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

44.9%

1.2%

53.9%

REP
by 9.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:46

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

40.9%

1.1%

58.0%

REP
by 17.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:07

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

40.9%

2.3%

56.8%

REP
by 15.9%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:50

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

43.9%

6.3%

49.9%

REP
by 6.0%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:39

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.9%

12.1%

48.0%

REP
by 8.1%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:45

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

37.6%

0.9%

61.5%

REP
by 23.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:52

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

35.6%

0.9%

63.6%

REP
by 28.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:59

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

48.0%

2.4%

49.6%

REP
by 1.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:13

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

Page cached at 2024-04-15 23:37:38 UTC

Original calculation time was 11.701 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-04-17 00:35:28 UTC

Page generated in 0.116 seconds