Currently being updated. Automatic reload in seconds.
Polls Used in Average
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.
Like Election Graphs on Facebook.
Read the Election Graphs blog posts.
If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email email@example.com
If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
Page cached at 2023-09-22 09:00:19 UTC
Original calculation time was 11.227 seconds
Page displayed at 2023-09-24 17:46:45 UTC
Page generated in 0.228 seconds