2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - New Mexico [5 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-08-24 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-08-28 17:35 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-08-24 00:00

PPP

49.0%

10.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2023-08-23
2023-08-24

2023-08-28
2023-08-28 17:35

2023-05-07 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

49.0%

13.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2023-05-06
2023-05-08

2023-05-12
2023-05-12 16:58

2022-10-27 00:00

Emerson

47.9%

13.9%

38.2%

Biden
by 9.7%

2022-10-25
2022-10-28

2022-10-31
2023-03-23 05:53

2022-09-10 00:00

Emerson

47.4%

12.1%

40.5%

Biden
by 6.9%

2022-09-08
2022-09-11

2022-09-14
2023-03-22 03:08

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

54.3%

2.2%

43.5%

DEM
by 10.8%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:10

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

48.3%

11.7%

40.0%

DEM
by 8.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:02

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

53.0%

4.2%

42.8%

DEM
by 10.2%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:49

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

56.9%

1.3%

41.8%

DEM
by 15.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:33

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

49.1%

1.1%

49.8%

REP
by 0.8%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:55

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.9%

4.2%

47.9%

DEM
by 0.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:33

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

9.0%

41.9%

DEM
by 7.3%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 17:26

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.9%

16.8%

37.3%

DEM
by 8.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:25

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

46.9%

1.2%

51.9%

REP
by 5.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:26

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.2%

1.1%

59.7%

REP
by 20.5%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:40

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

36.8%

8.3%

55.0%

REP
by 18.2%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:58

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

Page cached at 2024-04-16 13:01:20 UTC

Original calculation time was 11.969 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-04-16 23:21:31 UTC

Page generated in 0.116 seconds