2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:38 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-29 12:00	JL Partners [2]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-01	2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:46
2023-11-29 12:00	JL Partners w/4P [2]	34.0%	27.0%	39.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-01	2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:44
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	33.0%	27.0%	40.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:38
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	36.0%	24.0%	40.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:46
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:42
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	40.6%	16.6%	42.8%	Trump by 2.2%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:16
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	43.7%	10.8%	45.5%	Trump by 1.8%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:14
2023-10-28 12:00	Noble	38.0%	16.0%	46.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-10-25 2023-10-31	2023-11-13 2023-11-14 16:57
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	34.0%	32.0%	34.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:34
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	33.0%	34.0%	33.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:32
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	35.0%	25.0%	40.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:16
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:14
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	33.0%	29.0%	38.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:47
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:35

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	43.0%	10.0%	47.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:44
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	37.0%	21.0%	42.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:53
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	39.0%	17.0%	44.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:48
2023-08-03 12:00	Emerson w/3P [2]	40.6%	17.6%	41.8%	Trump by 1.2%	2023-08-02 2023-08-04	2023-08-08 2023-08-09 00:55
2023-08-03 12:00	Emerson [2]	43.2%	12.1%	44.7%	Trump by 1.5%	2023-08-02 2023-08-04	2023-08-08 2023-08-09 00:51
2023-07-23 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	45.0%	11.0%	44.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-07-22 2023-07-24	2023-07-26 2023-07-27 02:28
2023-07-23 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	40.0%	22.0%	38.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-07-22 2023-07-24	2023-07-26 2023-07-27 02:23
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	31.0%	28.0%	41.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:19
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	48.0%	0.0%	52.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:36
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	40.0%	24.0%	36.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:05
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	44.0%	15.0%	41.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:05
2023-05-16 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	46.0%	10.0%	44.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-05-15 2023-05-17	2023-05-19 2023-05-19 16:36
2023-04-12 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	45.0%	11.0%	44.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-04-11 2023-04-13	2023-04-16 2023-04-17 16:24
2023-03-14 00:00	Rasmussen	39.0%	11.0%	50.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2023-03-13 2023-03-14	2023-03-17 2023-03-25 07:06
2023-02-05 00:00	OH Predictive	39.0%	24.0%	37.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-01-31 2023-02-09	2023-02-23 2023-03-25 00:53
2023-01-07 00:00	Blueprint	35.2%	26.5%	38.3%	Trump by 3.1%	2023-01-05 2023-01-08	2023-01-11 2023-03-25 00:19
2022-11-09 00:00	Rasmussen	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2022-11-08 2022-11-09	2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:46
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz LV [2]	45.0%	2.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:43
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz RV [2]	41.0%	5.0%	54.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:41
2022-10-31 12:00	Emerson	42.0%	11.8%	46.2%	Trump by 4.2%	2022-10-30 2022-11-01	2022-11-04 2023-03-24 03:06
2022-09-07 00:00	Emerson	41.0%	14.8%	44.2%	Trump by 3.2%	2022-09-06 2022-09-07	2022-09-09 2023-03-21 17:08
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	33.0%	32.0%	35.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-07-27 02:48
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	43.0%	10.0%	47.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 00:38
2022-05-14 12:00	Blueprint	40.8%	18.5%	40.7%	Biden by 0.1%	2022-05-12 2022-05-16	2022-05-18 2023-03-20 16:22
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	40.0%	16.0%	44.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:38
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	43.0%	6.0%	51.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:12
2021-06-20 12:00	Bendixen & Amandi	51.0%	5.0%	44.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2021-06-17 2021-06-23	2021-06-29 2023-03-20 07:05
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	49.4%	1.6%	49.1%	DEM by 0.3%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-15 01:11
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	45.1%	6.2%	48.7%	REP by 3.5%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:43
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	44.6%	1.8%	53.7%	REP by 9.1%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:07
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	45.1%	1.2%	53.6%	REP by 8.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:38
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	44.4%	0.7%	54.9%	REP by 10.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:27
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	44.7%	4.3%	51.0%	REP by 6.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:10
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	46.5%	9.2%	44.3%	DEM by 2.2%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:13
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	36.5%	25.0%	38.5%	REP by 2.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:06
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	38.7%	1.3%	60.0%	REP by 21.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 03:08
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	32.5%	1.0%	66.4%	REP by 33.9%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:15
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	28.2%	11.2%	60.6%	REP by 32.4%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:10

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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