2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:38 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-29 12:00
JL Partners [2]
43.0%
9.0%
48.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-11-27 2023-12-01
2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:46
2023-11-29 12:00
JL Partners w/4P [2]
34.0%
27.0%
39.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-11-27 2023-12-01
2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:44
2023-11-28 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P
33.0%
27.0%
40.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2023-11-27 2023-11-29
2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:38
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult w/4P [2]
36.0%
24.0%
40.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:46
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult [2]
42.0%
12.0%
46.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:42
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson RV [2]
40.6%
16.6%
42.8%
Trump by 2.2%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:16
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson LV [2]
43.7%
10.8%
45.5%
Trump by 1.8%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:14
2023-10-28 12:00
Noble
38.0%
16.0%
46.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2023-10-25 2023-10-31
2023-11-13 2023-11-14 16:57
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/3P [6]
34.0%
32.0%
34.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:34
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/3P [6]
33.0%
34.0%
33.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:32
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV Definitely [6]
35.0%
25.0%
40.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:16
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/Lean [6]
44.0%
7.0%
49.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:14
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV Definitely [6]
33.0%
29.0%
38.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:47
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/Lean [6]
44.0%
7.0%
49.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:35
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-10-08 00:00
Morning Consult
43.0%
10.0%
47.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-10
2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:44
2023-10-08 00:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]
37.0%
21.0%
42.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-07 2023-10-08
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:53
2023-10-08 00:00
Redfield & Wilton [2]
39.0%
17.0%
44.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-07 2023-10-08
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:48
2023-08-03 12:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
40.6%
17.6%
41.8%
Trump by 1.2%
2023-08-02 2023-08-04
2023-08-08 2023-08-09 00:55
2023-08-03 12:00
Emerson [2]
43.2%
12.1%
44.7%
Trump by 1.5%
2023-08-02 2023-08-04
2023-08-08 2023-08-09 00:51
2023-07-23 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]
45.0%
11.0%
44.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-07-22 2023-07-24
2023-07-26 2023-07-27 02:28
2023-07-23 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]
40.0%
22.0%
38.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-07-22 2023-07-24
2023-07-26 2023-07-27 02:23
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime w/NL [2]
31.0%
28.0%
41.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:19
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime [2]
48.0%
0.0%
52.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:36
2023-06-18 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]
40.0%
24.0%
36.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-06-17 2023-06-19
2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:05
2023-06-18 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]
44.0%
15.0%
41.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-06-17 2023-06-19
2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:05
2023-05-16 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies
46.0%
10.0%
44.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-05-15 2023-05-17
2023-05-19 2023-05-19 16:36
2023-04-12 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies
45.0%
11.0%
44.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-04-11 2023-04-13
2023-04-16 2023-04-17 16:24
2023-03-14 00:00
Rasmussen
39.0%
11.0%
50.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2023-03-13 2023-03-14
2023-03-17 2023-03-25 07:06
2023-02-05 00:00
OH Predictive
39.0%
24.0%
37.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-01-31 2023-02-09
2023-02-23 2023-03-25 00:53
2023-01-07 00:00
Blueprint
35.2%
26.5%
38.3%
Trump by 3.1%
2023-01-05 2023-01-08
2023-01-11 2023-03-25 00:19
2022-11-09 00:00
Rasmussen
47.0%
8.0%
45.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2022-11-08 2022-11-09
2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:46
2022-11-04 12:00
Targoz LV [2]
45.0%
2.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2022-11-02 2022-11-06
2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:43
2022-11-04 12:00
Targoz RV [2]
41.0%
5.0%
54.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2022-11-02 2022-11-06
2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:41
2022-10-31 12:00
Emerson
42.0%
11.8%
46.2%
Trump by 4.2%
2022-10-30 2022-11-01
2022-11-04 2023-03-24 03:06
2022-09-07 00:00
Emerson
41.0%
14.8%
44.2%
Trump by 3.2%
2022-09-06 2022-09-07
2022-09-09 2023-03-21 17:08
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Definitely [2]
33.0%
32.0%
35.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-07-27 02:48
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Total [2]
43.0%
10.0%
47.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-03-22 00:38
2022-05-14 12:00
Blueprint
40.8%
18.5%
40.7%
Biden by 0.1%
2022-05-12 2022-05-16
2022-05-18 2023-03-20 16:22
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]
40.0%
16.0%
44.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:38
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Total [2]
43.0%
6.0%
51.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:12
2021-06-20 12:00
Bendixen & Amandi
51.0%
5.0%
44.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2021-06-17 2021-06-23
2021-06-29 2023-03-20 07:05
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
49.4%
1.6%
49.1%
DEM by 0.3%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-15 01:11
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
45.1%
6.2%
48.7%
REP by 3.5%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:43
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
44.6%
1.8%
53.7%
REP by 9.1%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:07
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
45.1%
1.2%
53.6%
REP by 8.5%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:38
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
44.4%
0.7%
54.9%
REP by 10.5%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:27
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
44.7%
4.3%
51.0%
REP by 6.3%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:10
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
46.5%
9.2%
44.3%
DEM by 2.2%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:13
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
36.5%
25.0%
38.5%
REP by 2.0%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:06
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
38.7%
1.3%
60.0%
REP by 21.2%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 03:08
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
32.5%
1.0%
66.4%
REP by 33.9%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:15
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
28.2%
11.2%
60.6%
REP by 32.4%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:10
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
Page cached at 2023-12-10 11:15:15 UTC
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