Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
---|
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Total [4] | 42.0% | 11.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 04:19 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4] | 34.0% | 25.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 04:10 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4] | 37.0% | 20.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 03:59 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4] | 34.0% | 27.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 03:48 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | Echelon Total [2] | 45.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-19 | 2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:03 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | Echelon Definitely [2] | 40.0% | 15.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-19 | 2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:00 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/4P | 41.0% | 15.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-17 | 2024-03-25 2024-03-25 18:35 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | North Star w/4P [2] | 33.0% | 30.0% | 37.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-17 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:08 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | North Star [2] | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-17 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:05 |
2024-03-14 00:00 | Emerson w/5P [3] | 37.9% | 16.3% | 45.8% | Trump by 7.9% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:33 |
2024-03-14 00:00 | Emerson w/Lean [3] | 47.7% | 0.0% | 52.3% | Trump by 4.6% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:32 |
2024-03-14 00:00 | Emerson [3] | 44.1% | 7.6% | 48.3% | Trump by 4.2% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:28 |
2024-03-11 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 43.0% | 9.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 10:35 |
2024-03-11 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 37.0% | 20.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 10:31 |
2024-03-09 12:00 | Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2] | 39.0% | 18.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-03-07 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-13 2024-03-14 16:03 |
2024-03-09 12:00 | Beacon/Shaw [2] | 45.0% | 6.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-03-07 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-13 2024-03-14 15:58 |
2024-02-24 00:00 | Rasmussen | 40.0% | 13.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-02-21 2024-02-26 | 2024-02-28 2024-02-29 04:03 |
2024-02-18 00:00 | Emerson w/5P [2] | 37.1% | 20.3% | 42.6% | Trump by 5.5% | 2024-02-16 2024-02-19 | 2024-02-22 2024-02-23 02:12 |
2024-02-18 00:00 | Emerson [2] | 42.5% | 11.9% | 45.6% | Trump by 3.1% | 2024-02-16 2024-02-19 | 2024-02-22 2024-02-23 02:09 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 43.0% | 8.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:15 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 36.0% | 19.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:12 |
2024-01-31 00:00 | JL Partners | 41.0% | 14.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-01-29 2024-02-01 | 2024-02-02 2024-02-03 21:03 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata LV 2W [3] | 49.6% | 0.0% | 50.4% | Trump by 0.8% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:08 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata LV [3] | 41.0% | 14.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:07 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata All [3] | 39.0% | 18.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:05 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 18:54 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 35.0% | 22.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 18:51 |
2023-12-29 12:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P | 35.0% | 24.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2023-12-28 2023-12-30 | 2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:23 |
2023-12-16 12:00 | Bullfinch Total [2] | 40.0% | 10.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2023-12-14 2023-12-18 | 2023-12-18 2023-12-19 03:09 |
2023-12-16 12:00 | Bullfinch Definitely [2] | 32.0% | 29.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2023-12-14 2023-12-18 | 2023-12-18 2023-12-19 03:05 |
2023-12-05 00:00 | VCreek/AMG w/6P [3] | 32.0% | 28.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 | 2023-12-19 2023-12-20 02:27 |
2023-12-05 00:00 | VCreek/AMG w/3P [3] | 35.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 | 2023-12-19 2023-12-20 02:12 |
2023-12-05 00:00 | VCreek/AMG [3] | 41.0% | 13.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 | 2023-12-19 2023-12-20 02:07 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:23 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 37.0% | 23.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:20 |
2023-11-29 12:00 | JL Partners [2] | 43.0% | 9.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:46 |
2023-11-29 12:00 | JL Partners w/4P [2] | 34.0% | 27.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:44 |
2023-11-28 12:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P | 33.0% | 27.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:38 |
2023-11-17 00:00 | Tulchin | 42.0% | 16.0% | 42.0% | TIED | 2023-11-13 2023-11-20 | 2023-12-12 2023-12-13 17:52 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult w/4P [2] | 36.0% | 24.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:46 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:42 |
2023-11-02 00:00 | Emerson RV [2] | 40.6% | 16.6% | 42.8% | Trump by 2.2% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 | 2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:16 |
2023-11-02 00:00 | Emerson LV [2] | 43.7% | 10.8% | 45.5% | Trump by 1.8% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 | 2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:14 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Noble | 38.0% | 16.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2023-10-25 2023-10-31 | 2023-11-13 2023-11-14 16:57 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV w/3P [6] | 34.0% | 32.0% | 34.0% | TIED | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:34 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV w/3P [6] | 33.0% | 34.0% | 33.0% | TIED | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:32 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV Definitely [6] | 35.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:16 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV w/Lean [6] | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:14 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV Definitely [6] | 33.0% | 29.0% | 38.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:47 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV w/Lean [6] | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:35 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Morning Consult | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-10-05 2023-10-10 | 2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:44 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2] | 37.0% | 21.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-07 2023-10-08 | 2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:53 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton [2] | 39.0% | 17.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-07 2023-10-08 | 2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:48 |
2023-08-03 12:00 | Emerson w/3P [2] | 40.6% | 17.6% | 41.8% | Trump by 1.2% | 2023-08-02 2023-08-04 | 2023-08-08 2023-08-09 00:55 |
2023-08-03 12:00 | Emerson [2] | 43.2% | 12.1% | 44.7% | Trump by 1.5% | 2023-08-02 2023-08-04 | 2023-08-08 2023-08-09 00:51 |
2023-07-23 12:00 | Public Opinion Strategies Total [2] | 45.0% | 11.0% | 44.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2023-07-22 2023-07-24 | 2023-07-26 2023-07-27 02:28 |
2023-07-23 12:00 | Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2] | 40.0% | 22.0% | 38.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-07-22 2023-07-24 | 2023-07-26 2023-07-27 02:23 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime w/NL [2] | 31.0% | 28.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:19 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime [2] | 48.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:36 |
2023-06-18 12:00 | Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2] | 40.0% | 24.0% | 36.0% | Biden by 4.0% | 2023-06-17 2023-06-19 | 2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:05 |
2023-06-18 12:00 | Public Opinion Strategies Total [2] | 44.0% | 15.0% | 41.0% | Biden by 3.0% | 2023-06-17 2023-06-19 | 2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:05 |
2023-05-16 12:00 | Public Opinion Strategies | 46.0% | 10.0% | 44.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-05-15 2023-05-17 | 2023-05-19 2023-05-19 16:36 |
2023-04-12 12:00 | Public Opinion Strategies | 45.0% | 11.0% | 44.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2023-04-11 2023-04-13 | 2023-04-16 2023-04-17 16:24 |
2023-03-14 00:00 | Rasmussen | 39.0% | 11.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 11.0% | 2023-03-13 2023-03-14 | 2023-03-17 2023-03-25 07:06 |
2023-02-05 00:00 | OH Predictive | 39.0% | 24.0% | 37.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-01-31 2023-02-09 | 2023-02-23 2023-03-25 00:53 |
2023-01-07 00:00 | Blueprint | 35.2% | 26.5% | 38.3% | Trump by 3.1% | 2023-01-05 2023-01-08 | 2023-01-11 2023-03-25 00:19 |
2022-11-09 00:00 | Rasmussen | 47.0% | 8.0% | 45.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2022-11-08 2022-11-09 | 2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:46 |
2022-11-04 12:00 | Targoz LV [2] | 45.0% | 2.0% | 53.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2022-11-02 2022-11-06 | 2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:43 |
2022-11-04 12:00 | Targoz RV [2] | 41.0% | 5.0% | 54.0% | Trump by 13.0% | 2022-11-02 2022-11-06 | 2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:41 |
2022-10-31 12:00 | Emerson | 42.0% | 11.8% | 46.2% | Trump by 4.2% | 2022-10-30 2022-11-01 | 2022-11-04 2023-03-24 03:06 |
2022-09-07 00:00 | Emerson | 41.0% | 14.8% | 44.2% | Trump by 3.2% | 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-09 2023-03-21 17:08 |
2022-09-04 00:00 | Echelon Definitely [2] | 33.0% | 32.0% | 35.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2022-08-31 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-13 2023-07-27 02:48 |
2022-09-04 00:00 | Echelon Total [2] | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2022-08-31 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-13 2023-03-22 00:38 |
2022-05-14 12:00 | Blueprint | 40.8% | 18.5% | 40.7% | Biden by 0.1% | 2022-05-12 2022-05-16 | 2022-05-18 2023-03-20 16:22 |
2021-11-14 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2] | 40.0% | 16.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2021-11-11 2021-11-16 | 2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:38 |
2021-11-14 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Total [2] | 43.0% | 6.0% | 51.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2021-11-11 2021-11-16 | 2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:12 |
2021-06-20 12:00 | Bendixen & Amandi | 51.0% | 5.0% | 44.0% | Biden by 7.0% | 2021-06-17 2021-06-23 | 2021-06-29 2023-03-20 07:05 |
2020-11-03 12:00 | Election2020 | 49.4% | 1.6% | 49.1% | DEM by 0.3% | 2020-11-03 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 2023-03-15 01:11 |
2016-11-08 12:00 | Election2016 | 45.1% | 6.2% | 48.7% | REP by 3.5% | 2016-11-08 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:43 |
2012-11-06 12:00 | Election2012 | 44.6% | 1.8% | 53.7% | REP by 9.1% | 2012-11-06 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:07 |
2008-11-04 12:00 | Election2008 | 45.1% | 1.2% | 53.6% | REP by 8.5% | 2008-11-04 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:38 |
2004-11-02 12:00 | Election2004 | 44.4% | 0.7% | 54.9% | REP by 10.5% | 2004-11-02 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:27 |
2000-11-07 12:00 | Election2000 | 44.7% | 4.3% | 51.0% | REP by 6.3% | 2000-11-07 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:10 |
1996-11-06 12:00 | Election1996 | 46.5% | 9.2% | 44.3% | DEM by 2.2% | 1996-11-06 1996-11-06 | 1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:13 |
1992-11-03 12:00 | Election1992 | 36.5% | 25.0% | 38.5% | REP by 2.0% | 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:06 |
1988-11-08 12:00 | Election1988 | 38.7% | 1.3% | 60.0% | REP by 21.2% | 1988-11-08 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 2014-05-17 03:08 |
1984-11-06 12:00 | Election1984 | 32.5% | 1.0% | 66.4% | REP by 33.9% | 1984-11-06 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:15 |
1980-11-04 12:00 | Election1980 | 28.2% | 11.2% | 60.6% | REP by 32.4% | 1980-11-04 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:10 |
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".