Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
|
Polls Used in Average
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-07-20 00:00 | 44.0% | 6.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-07-19 | 2024-07-21 | |
2024-07-20 00:00 | 40.0% | 15.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-07-19 | 2024-07-21 | |
2024-07-17 12:00 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-07-16 | 2024-07-21 | |
2024-07-16 00:00 | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-18 | |
2024-07-16 00:00 | 36.0% | 18.4% | 45.6% | Trump | 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-18 | |
2024-07-16 00:00 | 40.3% | 12.8% | 46.9% | Trump | 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-18 | |
2024-07-11 00:00 | 43.0% | 6.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-07-10 | 2024-07-22 | |
2024-07-11 00:00 | 40.0% | 14.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-10 | 2024-07-18 |
Older Polls
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-07-09 12:00 | 39.0% | 18.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-07-08 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-07-08 12:00 | 37.0% | 17.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-04 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-07-08 12:00 | 37.0% | 19.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-07-04 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-07-05 00:00 | 39.0% | 20.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-29 | |
2024-07-05 00:00 | 31.0% | 34.0% | 35.0% | Trump | 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-29 | |
2024-07-05 00:00 | 44.0% | 8.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-29 | |
2024-07-03 12:00 | 38.0% | 17.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-06 | |
2024-07-03 12:00 | 45.0% | 7.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-06 | |
2024-07-01 12:00 | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-08 | |
2024-06-30 12:00 | 42.0% | 9.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-06-29 | 2024-07-08 | |
2024-06-29 12:00 | 33.0% | 19.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-06-28 | 2024-07-08 | |
2024-06-19 00:00 | 32.0% | 26.0% | 42.0% | Trump | 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-21 | |
2024-06-19 00:00 | 42.0% | 10.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-21 | |
2024-06-16 00:00 | 36.0% | 17.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-06-11 | 2024-06-27 | |
2024-06-16 00:00 | 39.3% | 18.0% | 42.7% | Trump | 2024-06-13 | 2024-06-20 | |
2024-06-16 00:00 | 48.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | Trump | 2024-06-13 | 2024-06-20 | |
2024-06-16 00:00 | 42.7% | 10.1% | 47.2% | Trump | 2024-06-13 | 2024-06-20 | |
2024-06-12 12:00 | 37.0% | 22.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2024-06-11 | 2024-06-14 | |
2024-06-12 12:00 | 40.0% | 13.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-06-11 | 2024-06-14 | |
2024-06-10 00:00 | 38.0% | 22.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2024-06-08 | 2024-06-17 | |
2024-06-03 00:00 | 41.0% | 13.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-06-01 | 2024-06-06 | |
2024-06-03 00:00 | 46.0% | 3.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-06-01 | 2024-06-06 | |
2024-06-01 00:00 | 38.0% | 17.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-05-28 | 2024-06-12 | |
2024-06-01 00:00 | 44.0% | 6.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-05-28 | 2024-06-12 | |
2024-06-01 00:00 | 36.0% | 21.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-05-28 | 2024-06-12 | |
2024-06-01 00:00 | 37.0% | 18.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-05-28 | 2024-06-12 | |
2024-05-20 12:00 | 39.3% | 17.9% | 42.8% | Trump | 2024-05-19 | 2024-05-23 | |
2024-05-20 12:00 | 36.6% | 24.6% | 38.8% | Trump | 2024-05-19 | 2024-05-23 | |
2024-05-20 12:00 | 45.1% | 11.7% | 43.2% | Biden | 2024-05-19 | 2024-05-23 | |
2024-05-20 12:00 | 40.9% | 17.9% | 41.2% | Trump | 2024-05-19 | 2024-05-23 | |
2024-05-17 12:00 | 38.0% | 21.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2024-05-13 | 2024-06-27 | |
2024-05-13 12:00 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-05-10 | 2024-05-19 | |
2024-05-13 12:00 | 47.0% | 1.0% | 52.0% | Trump | 2024-05-10 | 2024-05-19 | |
2024-05-13 00:00 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-05-13 00:00 | 49.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-05-11 00:00 | 36.0% | 21.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-05-07 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-05-11 00:00 | 41.0% | 15.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-05-07 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-05-10 12:00 | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-05-08 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-05-10 12:00 | 40.0% | 15.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-05-08 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-05-10 00:00 | 44.0% | 11.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-05-06 | 2024-05-23 | |
2024-05-10 00:00 | 37.0% | 22.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2024-05-06 | 2024-05-23 | |
2024-05-04 00:00 | 43.0% | 8.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-04-28 | 2024-05-13 | |
2024-05-04 00:00 | 35.0% | 21.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-04-28 | 2024-05-13 | |
2024-05-04 00:00 | 42.0% | 9.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-04-28 | 2024-05-13 | |
2024-05-04 00:00 | 33.0% | 25.0% | 42.0% | Trump | 2024-04-28 | 2024-05-13 | |
2024-05-03 12:00 | 42.0% | 14.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-05-02 | 2024-05-13 | |
2024-04-28 12:00 | 38.8% | 23.1% | 38.1% | Biden | 2024-04-27 | 2024-05-07 | |
2024-04-27 12:00 | 40.2% | 16.2% | 43.6% | Trump | 2024-04-25 | 2024-04-30 | |
2024-04-27 12:00 | 47.7% | 0.0% | 52.3% | Trump | 2024-04-25 | 2024-04-30 | |
2024-04-27 12:00 | 44.4% | 7.7% | 47.9% | Trump | 2024-04-25 | 2024-04-30 | |
2024-04-21 00:00 | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-04-20 | 2024-04-26 | |
2024-04-17 12:00 | 39.7% | 9.0% | 51.3% | Trump | 2024-04-13 | 2024-04-30 | |
2024-04-11 00:00 | 42.0% | 9.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-04-08 | 2024-04-24 | |
2024-04-11 00:00 | 40.0% | 14.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-04-08 | 2024-04-24 | |
2024-04-11 00:00 | 33.0% | 28.0% | 39.0% | Trump | 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-16 | |
2024-04-09 12:00 | 44.0% | 8.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-04-07 | 2024-04-15 | |
2024-04-09 12:00 | 39.0% | 17.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-04-07 | 2024-04-15 | |
2024-04-09 12:00 | 37.0% | 21.0% | 42.0% | Trump | 2024-04-07 | 2024-04-15 | |
2024-04-01 00:00 | 38.0% | 18.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-03-29 | 2024-04-12 | |
2024-04-01 00:00 | 28.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% | Trump | 2024-03-29 | 2024-04-12 | |
2024-03-30 00:00 | 36.0% | 25.0% | 39.0% | Trump | 2024-03-28 | 2024-04-02 | |
2024-03-21 00:00 | 42.0% | 11.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-03-17 | 2024-04-02 | |
2024-03-21 00:00 | 34.0% | 25.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2024-03-17 | 2024-04-02 | |
2024-03-21 00:00 | 37.0% | 20.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-03-17 | 2024-04-02 | |
2024-03-21 00:00 | 34.0% | 27.0% | 39.0% | Trump | 2024-03-17 | 2024-04-02 | |
2024-03-18 12:00 | 42.1% | 12.9% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-03-16 | 2024-07-18 | |
2024-03-16 00:00 | 45.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-03-12 | 2024-04-15 | |
2024-03-16 00:00 | 40.0% | 15.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-03-12 | 2024-04-15 | |
2024-03-16 00:00 | 41.0% | 15.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-25 | |
2024-03-16 00:00 | 33.0% | 30.0% | 37.0% | Trump | 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-20 | |
2024-03-16 00:00 | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-20 | |
2024-03-14 00:00 | 37.9% | 16.3% | 45.8% | Trump | 2024-03-12 | 2024-03-20 | |
2024-03-14 00:00 | 47.7% | 0.0% | 52.3% | Trump | 2024-03-12 | 2024-03-20 | |
2024-03-14 00:00 | 44.1% | 7.6% | 48.3% | Trump | 2024-03-12 | 2024-03-20 | |
2024-03-11 12:00 | 43.0% | 9.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-03-08 | 2024-03-26 | |
2024-03-11 12:00 | 37.0% | 20.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-03-08 | 2024-03-26 | |
2024-03-09 12:00 | 39.0% | 18.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-13 | |
2024-03-09 12:00 | 45.0% | 6.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-13 | |
2024-02-24 00:00 | 40.0% | 13.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-02-21 | 2024-02-28 | |
2024-02-18 00:00 | 37.1% | 20.3% | 42.6% | Trump | 2024-02-16 | 2024-02-22 | |
2024-02-18 00:00 | 42.5% | 11.9% | 45.6% | Trump | 2024-02-16 | 2024-02-22 | |
2024-02-15 12:00 | 43.0% | 8.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-28 | |
2024-02-15 12:00 | 36.0% | 19.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-28 | |
2024-01-31 00:00 | 41.0% | 14.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-01-29 | 2024-02-02 | |
2024-01-20 12:00 | 49.6% | 0.0% | 50.4% | Trump | 2024-01-17 | 2024-03-01 | |
2024-01-20 12:00 | 41.0% | 14.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-01-17 | 2024-03-01 | |
2024-01-20 12:00 | 39.0% | 18.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-01-17 | 2024-03-01 | |
2024-01-19 00:00 | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-01-16 | 2024-01-31 | |
2024-01-19 00:00 | 35.0% | 22.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-01-16 | 2024-01-31 | |
2023-12-29 12:00 | 35.0% | 24.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2023-12-28 | 2024-01-08 | |
2023-12-16 12:00 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2023-12-14 | 2023-12-18 | |
2023-12-16 12:00 | 32.0% | 29.0% | 39.0% | Trump | 2023-12-14 | 2023-12-18 | |
2023-12-05 00:00 | 32.0% | 28.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-19 | |
2023-12-05 00:00 | 35.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-19 | |
2023-12-05 00:00 | 41.0% | 13.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-19 | |
2023-12-02 00:00 | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2023-11-27 | 2023-12-14 | |
2023-12-02 00:00 | 37.0% | 23.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2023-11-27 | 2023-12-14 | |
2023-11-29 12:00 | 43.0% | 9.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2023-11-27 | 2023-12-04 | |
2023-11-29 12:00 | 34.0% | 27.0% | 39.0% | Trump | 2023-11-27 | 2023-12-04 | |
2023-11-28 12:00 | 33.0% | 27.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2023-11-27 | 2023-12-05 | |
2023-11-17 00:00 | 42.0% | 16.0% | 42.0% | TIED | 2023-11-13 | 2023-12-12 | |
2023-11-03 12:00 | 36.0% | 24.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-10 | |
2023-11-03 12:00 | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-10 | |
2023-11-02 00:00 | 40.6% | 16.6% | 42.8% | Trump | 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-09 | |
2023-11-02 00:00 | 43.7% | 10.8% | 45.5% | Trump | 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-09 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 38.0% | 16.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2023-10-25 | 2023-11-13 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 34.0% | 32.0% | 34.0% | TIED | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 33.0% | 34.0% | 33.0% | TIED | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 35.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 33.0% | 29.0% | 38.0% | Trump | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-08 00:00 | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2023-10-05 | 2023-10-19 | |
2023-10-08 00:00 | 37.0% | 21.0% | 42.0% | Trump | 2023-10-07 | 2023-10-15 | |
2023-10-08 00:00 | 39.0% | 17.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2023-10-07 | 2023-10-15 | |
2023-08-03 12:00 | 40.6% | 17.6% | 41.8% | Trump | 2023-08-02 | 2023-08-08 | |
2023-08-03 12:00 | 43.2% | 12.1% | 44.7% | Trump | 2023-08-02 | 2023-08-08 | |
2023-07-23 12:00 | 45.0% | 11.0% | 44.0% | Biden | 2023-07-22 | 2023-07-26 | |
2023-07-23 12:00 | 40.0% | 22.0% | 38.0% | Biden | 2023-07-22 | 2023-07-26 | |
2023-06-21 12:00 | 31.0% | 28.0% | 41.0% | Trump | 2023-06-14 | 2023-07-13 | |
2023-06-21 12:00 | 48.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | Trump | 2023-06-14 | 2023-07-13 | |
2023-06-18 12:00 | 40.0% | 24.0% | 36.0% | Biden | 2023-06-17 | 2023-06-20 | |
2023-06-18 12:00 | 44.0% | 15.0% | 41.0% | Biden | 2023-06-17 | 2023-06-20 | |
2023-05-16 12:00 | 46.0% | 10.0% | 44.0% | Biden | 2023-05-15 | 2023-05-19 | |
2023-04-12 12:00 | 45.0% | 11.0% | 44.0% | Biden | 2023-04-11 | 2023-04-16 | |
2023-03-14 00:00 | 39.0% | 11.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2023-03-13 | 2023-03-17 | |
2023-02-05 00:00 | 39.0% | 24.0% | 37.0% | Biden | 2023-01-31 | 2023-02-23 | |
2023-01-07 00:00 | 35.2% | 26.5% | 38.3% | Trump | 2023-01-05 | 2023-01-11 | |
2022-11-09 00:00 | 47.0% | 8.0% | 45.0% | Biden | 2022-11-08 | 2022-12-02 | |
2022-11-04 12:00 | 45.0% | 2.0% | 53.0% | Trump | 2022-11-02 | 2022-11-07 | |
2022-11-04 12:00 | 41.0% | 5.0% | 54.0% | Trump | 2022-11-02 | 2022-11-07 | |
2022-10-31 12:00 | 42.0% | 11.8% | 46.2% | Trump | 2022-10-30 | 2022-11-04 | |
2022-09-07 00:00 | 41.0% | 14.8% | 44.2% | Trump | 2022-09-06 | 2022-09-09 | |
2022-09-04 00:00 | 33.0% | 32.0% | 35.0% | Trump | 2022-08-31 | 2022-09-13 | |
2022-09-04 00:00 | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2022-08-31 | 2022-09-13 | |
2022-05-14 12:00 | 40.8% | 18.5% | 40.7% | Biden | 2022-05-12 | 2022-05-18 | |
2021-11-14 00:00 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2021-11-11 | 2021-11-21 | |
2021-11-14 00:00 | 43.0% | 6.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2021-11-11 | 2021-11-21 | |
2021-06-20 12:00 | 51.0% | 5.0% | 44.0% | Biden | 2021-06-17 | 2021-06-29 | |
2020-11-03 12:00 | 49.4% | 1.6% | 49.1% | DEM | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 | |
2016-11-08 12:00 | 45.1% | 6.2% | 48.7% | REP | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 | |
2012-11-06 12:00 | 44.6% | 1.8% | 53.7% | REP | 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 | |
2008-11-04 12:00 | 45.1% | 1.2% | 53.6% | REP | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 | |
2004-11-02 12:00 | 44.4% | 0.7% | 54.9% | REP | 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 | |
2000-11-07 12:00 | 44.7% | 4.3% | 51.0% | REP | 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 | |
1996-11-05 12:00 | 46.5% | 9.2% | 44.3% | DEM | 1996-11-05 | 1996-11-05 | |
1992-11-03 12:00 | 36.5% | 25.0% | 38.5% | REP | 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 | |
1988-11-08 12:00 | 38.7% | 1.3% | 60.0% | REP | 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 | |
1984-11-06 12:00 | 32.5% | 1.0% | 66.4% | REP | 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 | |
1980-11-04 12:00 | 28.2% | 11.2% | 60.6% | REP | 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 |
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
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