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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Oklahoma [7 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-08 04:16 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Oklahoma [7 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 Oklahoma [7 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

39.8%

7.3%

52.9%

Trump
by 13.1%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 09:03

2024-04-12 00:00

Cygnal Total [4]

30.2%

9.2%

60.6%

Trump
by 30.4%

2024-04-11
2024-04-12

2024-04-30
2024-05-08 04:16

2024-04-12 00:00

Cygnal Definitely [4]

23.0%

25.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 29.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-12

2024-04-30
2024-05-08 04:15

2024-04-12 00:00

Cygnal Total w/5P [4]

23.7%

19.9%

56.4%

Trump
by 32.7%

2024-04-11
2024-04-12

2024-04-30
2024-05-08 04:14

2024-04-12 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/5P [4]

18.0%

34.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-12

2024-04-30
2024-05-08 04:12

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

31.3%

9.9%

58.8%

Trump
by 27.5%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:23

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

33.1%

9.4%

57.5%

Trump
by 24.4%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:22

2023-10-02 12:00

Emerson

26.9%

17.7%

55.4%

Trump
by 28.5%

2023-10-01
2023-10-03

2023-10-10
2023-10-11 04:38

2022-10-27 00:00

Emerson

30.0%

11.3%

58.7%

Trump
by 28.7%

2022-10-25
2022-10-28

2022-10-31
2023-03-23 05:44

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2022-10-05 12:00

Sooner

40.8%

6.5%

52.7%

Trump
by 11.9%

2022-10-04
2022-10-06

2022-10-19
2023-03-23 04:28

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

24.0%

30.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 22.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 03:18

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

30.0%

7.0%

63.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 01:48

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

32.3%

2.3%

65.4%

REP
by 33.1%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:34

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

28.9%

5.8%

65.3%

REP
by 36.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:36

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

33.2%

0.0%

66.8%

REP
by 33.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:06

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

34.4%

0.0%

65.7%

REP
by 31.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:35

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

34.4%

0.0%

65.6%

REP
by 31.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:02

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

38.4%

1.3%

60.3%

REP
by 21.9%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:43

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

40.5%

11.3%

48.3%

REP
by 7.8%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 19:38

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

34.0%

23.3%

42.7%

REP
by 8.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:39

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

41.3%

0.8%

57.9%

REP
by 16.7%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:43

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

30.7%

0.7%

68.6%

REP
by 37.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:51

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

35.0%

4.5%

60.5%

REP
by 25.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:06

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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