2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Texas [40 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-08 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-04-16 18:26 UTC

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-04-08 00:00	TXHPF w/4P [2]	36.0%	16.0%	48.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2024-04-05 2024-04-10	2024-04-16 2024-04-16 18:26
2024-04-08 00:00	TXHPF w/5P [2]	34.0%	20.0%	46.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2024-04-05 2024-04-10	2024-04-16 2024-04-16 18:23
2024-04-05 12:00	Cygnal Total [4]	42.2%	7.1%	50.7%	Trump by 8.5%	2024-04-04 2024-04-06	2024-04-11 2024-04-12 00:56
2024-04-05 12:00	Cygnal Definitely [4]	32.0%	25.0%	43.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2024-04-04 2024-04-06	2024-04-11 2024-04-12 00:52
2024-04-05 12:00	Cygnal Total w/5P [4]	36.6%	17.6%	45.8%	Trump by 9.2%	2024-04-04 2024-04-06	2024-04-11 2024-04-12 00:49
2024-04-05 12:00	Cygnal Definitely w/5P [4]	27.0%	36.0%	37.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2024-04-04 2024-04-06	2024-04-11 2024-04-12 00:47
2024-03-20 00:00	Marist w/3P [2]	36.0%	16.0%	48.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2024-03-18 2024-03-21	2024-03-26 2024-03-26 15:49
2024-03-20 00:00	Marist [2]	44.0%	1.0%	55.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2024-03-18 2024-03-21	2024-03-26 2024-03-26 15:48
2024-03-02 00:00	Mainstreet LV [2]	42.3%	6.8%	50.9%	Trump by 8.6%	2024-02-29 2024-03-03	2024-03-07 2024-03-07 22:31
2024-03-02 00:00	Mainstreet RV [2]	41.5%	8.6%	49.9%	Trump by 8.4%	2024-02-29 2024-03-03	2024-03-07 2024-03-07 22:29
2024-02-22 12:00	UT Tyler w/5P [2]	37.0%	22.0%	41.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-02-18 2024-02-26	2023-02-28 2024-03-01 07:16
2024-02-22 12:00	UT Tyler [2]	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-02-18 2024-02-26	2024-02-28 2024-03-01 07:13

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-02-07 12:00	YouGov w/5P [2]	36.0%	19.0%	45.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2024-02-02 2024-02-12	2024-02-19 2024-02-20 02:43
2024-02-07 12:00	YouGov [2]	41.0%	11.0%	48.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-02-02 2024-02-12	2024-02-19 2024-02-20 02:41
2024-02-07 12:00	NPA w/5P	35.0%	23.0%	42.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-02-06 2024-02-08	2024-02-15 2024-02-16 03:45
2024-02-02 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	35.0%	21.0%	44.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2024-02-01 2024-02-03	2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:49
2024-01-18 00:00	YouGov w/3P	40.0%	11.0%	49.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2024-01-11 2024-01-24	2024-01-30 2024-01-30 21:18
2024-01-14 12:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	36.1%	18.2%	45.7%	Trump by 9.6%	2024-01-13 2024-01-15	2024-01-18 2024-01-18 17:48
2024-01-14 12:00	Emerson [2]	40.9%	10.4%	48.7%	Trump by 7.8%	2024-01-13 2024-01-15	2024-01-18 2024-01-18 17:44
2023-12-06 00:00	YouGov w/5P [2]	34.0%	24.0%	42.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-12-01 2023-12-10	2023-12-19 2023-12-20 17:31
2023-12-06 00:00	YouGov [2]	39.0%	16.0%	45.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2023-12-01 2023-12-10	2023-12-19 2023-12-20 17:25
2023-10-11 12:00	YouGov	37.0%	18.0%	45.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-17	2023-10-25 2023-10-26 03:40
2023-05-13 00:00	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	42.0%	14.0%	44.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-05-08 2023-05-17	2023-05-25 2023-05-25 02:14
2023-04-19 12:00	CWS Research	42.0%	13.0%	45.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-04-17 2023-04-21	2023-04-25 2023-04-25 19:09
2022-10-18 12:00	Emerson	40.4%	12.2%	47.4%	Trump by 7.0%	2022-10-17 2022-10-19	2022-10-24 2023-03-23 05:14
2022-09-21 12:00	Emerson	39.9%	11.0%	49.1%	Trump by 9.2%	2022-09-20 2022-09-22	2022-09-27 2023-03-23 02:18
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	32.0%	33.0%	35.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-07-27 03:28
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 02:05
2022-06-09 12:00	Blueprint	38.3%	17.7%	44.0%	Trump by 5.7%	2022-06-08 2022-06-10	2022-06-13 2023-03-20 16:41
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	46.5%	1.5%	52.1%	REP by 5.6%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-17 05:55
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	43.2%	4.5%	52.2%	REP by 9.0%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:11
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	41.4%	1.5%	57.2%	REP by 15.8%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:13
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	43.7%	0.9%	55.5%	REP by 11.8%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 01:52
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	38.2%	0.7%	61.1%	REP by 22.9%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:11
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	38.0%	2.7%	59.3%	REP by 21.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:05
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	43.8%	7.4%	48.8%	REP by 4.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:44
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	37.1%	22.4%	40.6%	REP by 3.5%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:58
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	43.4%	0.7%	56.0%	REP by 12.6%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:01
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	36.1%	0.3%	63.6%	REP by 27.5%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:07
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	41.4%	3.3%	55.3%	REP by 13.9%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:20

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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