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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Missouri [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-06 05:15 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

43.4%

7.7%

48.9%

Trump
by 5.5%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 05:15

2024-01-26 00:00

Emerson

31.9%

18.4%

49.7%

Trump
by 17.8%

2024-01-23
2024-01-28

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 17:16

2023-10-12 00:00

Remington w/3P [2]

34.0%

17.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2023-10-11
2023-10-12

2023-10-24
2023-10-25 04:07

2023-10-12 00:00

Remington [2]

39.0%

9.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2023-10-11
2023-10-12

2023-10-24
2023-10-25 04:01

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

33.0%

16.8%

50.2%

Trump
by 17.2%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-12
2023-10-13 02:08

2022-10-30 00:00

SurveyUSA

34.0%

14.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2022-10-27
2022-11-01

2022-11-02
2023-03-24 03:21

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2022-10-27 12:00

Emerson

36.5%

10.6%

52.9%

Trump
by 16.4%

2022-10-26
2022-10-28

2022-11-01
2023-03-24 02:06

2022-09-25 12:00

Emerson

37.0%

11.6%

51.4%

Trump
by 14.4%

2022-09-23
2022-09-27

2022-09-29
2023-03-23 02:30

2022-09-16 12:00

SurveyUSA

35.0%

13.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2022-09-14
2022-09-18

2022-09-19
2023-03-23 01:34

2022-07-26 00:00

SurveyUSA

35.0%

14.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2022-07-24
2022-07-27

2022-07-28
2023-03-21 03:11

2022-05-13 12:00

SurveyUSA

35.0%

15.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2022-05-11
2022-05-15

2022-05-17
2023-03-20 16:29

2021-09-19 12:00

Remington

36.0%

9.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2021-09-18
2021-09-20

2021-09-23
2023-03-20 09:06

2021-04-22 00:00

Remington

38.0%

9.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2021-04-21
2021-04-22

2021-04-26
2023-03-20 02:23

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

41.4%

1.8%

56.8%

REP
by 15.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 07:13

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

38.1%

5.1%

56.8%

REP
by 18.6%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:23

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.4%

1.9%

53.8%

REP
by 9.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:40

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

49.3%

1.3%

49.4%

REP
by 0.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:13

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

46.1%

0.6%

53.3%

REP
by 7.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:27

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.1%

2.5%

50.4%

REP
by 3.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:57

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

47.5%

11.2%

41.2%

DEM
by 6.3%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:40

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

44.1%

22.0%

33.9%

DEM
by 10.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:32

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.9%

0.3%

51.8%

REP
by 4.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 12:34

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.0%

0.0%

60.0%

REP
by 20.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:50

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

44.4%

4.5%

51.2%

REP
by 6.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:03

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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