2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Massachusetts [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-02 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-03-07 22:09 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

58.8%

7.5%

33.7%

Biden
by 25.1%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:09

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

57.8%

8.7%

33.5%

Biden
by 24.3%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:08

2024-02-04 00:00

Suffolk w/4P

45.0%

29.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2024-02-02
2024-02-05

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 02:04

2023-10-17 00:00

YouGov w/3P

43.0%

36.0%

21.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2023-10-13
2023-10-20

2023-10-25
2023-10-26 04:00

2022-10-22 00:00

UMass Lowell

58.0%

10.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 26.0%

2022-10-18
2022-10-25

2022-11-03
2023-03-24 02:49

2022-09-08 00:00

Emerson

54.0%

12.3%

33.7%

Biden
by 20.3%

2022-09-07
2022-09-08

2022-09-09
2023-03-21 17:01

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2022-06-11 12:00

UMass Lowell

60.0%

9.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 29.0%

2022-06-07
2022-06-15

2022-06-22
2023-03-20 16:51

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

65.6%

2.3%

32.1%

DEM
by 33.5%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 06:57

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

60.0%

7.2%

32.8%

DEM
by 27.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 02:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.7%

1.8%

37.5%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:36

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.8%

2.2%

36.0%

DEM
by 25.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:05

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

61.9%

1.3%

36.8%

DEM
by 25.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:19

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

59.8%

7.7%

32.5%

DEM
by 27.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:51

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

61.5%

10.4%

28.1%

DEM
by 33.4%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:34

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

47.5%

23.4%

29.0%

DEM
by 18.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

53.2%

1.4%

45.4%

DEM
by 7.8%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:24

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

48.4%

0.4%

51.2%

REP
by 2.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:40

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.8%

16.4%

41.9%

REP
by 0.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:56

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

Page cached at 2024-03-28 13:32:12 UTC

Original calculation time was 11.955 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-03-28 21:55:02 UTC

Page generated in 0.120 seconds