2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Massachusetts [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-19 17:14 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Massachusetts [11 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 Massachusetts [11 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-07-17 12:00

Suffolk w/6P

47.2%

23.8%

29.0%

Biden
by 18.2%

2024-07-16
2024-07-18

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 17:14

2024-05-24 00:00

YouGov w/Lean w/3P [2]

48.0%

25.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2024-05-17
2024-05-30

2024-06-05
2024-06-06 02:17

2024-05-24 00:00

YouGov wo/Lean w/3P [2]

47.0%

27.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2024-05-17
2024-05-30

2024-06-05
2024-06-06 02:14

2024-05-18 12:00

UNH [2]

68.0%

0.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 36.0%

2024-05-16
2024-05-20

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:07

2024-05-18 12:00

UNH w/5P [2]

55.0%

19.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 29.0%

2024-05-16
2024-05-20

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:03

2024-04-18 12:00

Suffolk w/4P

52.0%

26.0%

22.0%

Biden
by 30.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-20

2024-04-25
2024-04-25 18:19

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

55.2%

9.0%

35.8%

Biden
by 19.4%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 04:43

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-25 12:00

MassINC LV w/Lean w/4P [4]

53.0%

20.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 26.0%

2024-03-21
2024-03-29

2024-04-10
2024-04-10 17:20

2024-03-25 12:00

MassINC LV w/4P [4]

50.0%

24.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 24.0%

2024-03-21
2024-03-29

2024-04-10
2024-04-10 17:17

2024-03-25 12:00

MassINC RV w/Lean w/4P [4]

46.0%

26.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2024-03-21
2024-03-29

2024-04-10
2024-04-10 17:15

2024-03-25 12:00

MassINC RV w/4P [4]

44.0%

30.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2024-03-21
2024-03-29

2024-04-10
2024-04-10 17:10

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

58.8%

7.5%

33.7%

Biden
by 25.1%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:09

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

57.8%

8.7%

33.5%

Biden
by 24.3%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:08

2024-02-04 00:00

Suffolk w/4P

45.0%

29.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2024-02-02
2024-02-05

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 02:04

2023-10-17 00:00

YouGov w/3P

43.0%

36.0%

21.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2023-10-13
2023-10-20

2023-10-25
2023-10-26 04:00

2022-10-22 00:00

UMass Lowell

58.0%

10.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 26.0%

2022-10-18
2022-10-25

2022-11-03
2023-03-24 02:49

2022-09-08 00:00

Emerson

54.0%

12.3%

33.7%

Biden
by 20.3%

2022-09-07
2022-09-08

2022-09-09
2023-03-21 17:01

2022-06-11 12:00

UMass Lowell

60.0%

9.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 29.0%

2022-06-07
2022-06-15

2022-06-22
2023-03-20 16:51

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

65.6%

2.3%

32.1%

DEM
by 33.5%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 06:57

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

60.0%

7.2%

32.8%

DEM
by 27.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 02:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.7%

1.8%

37.5%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:36

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.8%

2.2%

36.0%

DEM
by 25.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:05

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

61.9%

1.3%

36.8%

DEM
by 25.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:19

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

59.8%

7.7%

32.5%

DEM
by 27.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:51

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

61.5%

10.4%

28.1%

DEM
by 33.4%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 09:34

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

47.5%

23.4%

29.0%

DEM
by 18.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

53.2%

1.4%

45.4%

DEM
by 7.8%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:24

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

48.4%

0.4%

51.2%

REP
by 2.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:40

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.8%

16.4%

41.9%

REP
by 0.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:56

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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