Tag: Delegates

Delegates: BOTH Trump and Biden Clinch their Nominations

Welp, I expected Trump to clinch tonight, but that Biden would have to wait a week.

But Tuesday morning Green Papers updated their site to note that both Delaware and Florida had canceled their Democratic primaries and given all their delegates to Biden.

That was enough to put Biden close enough to clinch tonight too.

Since my update Sunday for the Republicans and my update Thursday for the Democrats, there have been results in a bunch of states, and some minor adjustments in others. There are still more results pending for tonight. Democrats Abroad, and the Republican caucus in Hawaii.

But I'm not going to wait for them. Here are the net delegate changes since my Sunday post:

  • Biden +484 delegates
  • Trump +137 delegates
  • Haley +3 delegates

And with that, we have presumptive nominees in both parties. The only way this changes is if one or both candidates drop out or become incapacitated or whatever before the conventions.

If that happens, I'll be back with more delegate blog posts. Otherwise, I'll continue to update the delegate totals on the website until the end of the primary season, but won't be posting anything here.

When you effectively have two incumbents, turns out the delegate races are pretty boring. Usually you have at something interesting to follow in at least one of the two parties.

Anyway, here are the important graphs and charts, one last time.

Democrats:

Republicans:

And that's it.

I am way overdue for a general election polling update. I'll get to it as soon as I can.

In the meantime, here are the countdowns until the conventions, one more time:

124.8 days until the Republican National Convention

159.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

Republican Delegates after American Samoa plus Cleanup

OK. American Samoa had a Republican caucus.

There were 110 votes total.

Trump got all of them.

So 9 more delegates for Trump.

Also, just some clean up on delegate totals as Super Tuesday delegate estimates continued to jiggle around a little.

The net changes from those adjustments compared to my last update were:

Trump lost 3 delegates. (Trump lost 9 in Texas that went back to TBD, gained 3 in Virginia,  and gained 3 in Minnesota.)

Haley lost 11 delegates. (Haley picked up 1 additional delegate in Minnesota, but then lost all 12 Minnesota delegates she had earned, because in Minnesota the rules say that once candidates drop out their delegates immediately become unbound.)

OK, so here are the important charts and graphs. As usual, click through for more.

Next up on Tuesday, both parties have Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington. The Republicans also have Hawaii. The Democrats also have Democrats Abroad and the Northern Marianas.

Unless something massively unexpected happens, Trump will go over the top and clinch the nomination once those results are in.

Biden will have to wait until a week later since the Democratic schedule takes longer to get to the 50% of delegates mark.

127.2 days until the Republican National Convention

162.2 days until the Democratic National Convention

Democratic Delegates with Hawaii, plus Super Tuesday Cleanup

Welp, first off, Hawaii had a Democratic caucus yesterday.

There may still be some adjustments, but for the moment it looks like 15 more delegates for Biden, and 7 uncommitted that we keep as TBD.

Second, Utah had a Republican caucus on Super Tuesday, but The Green Papers didn't have results until after I did my Super Tuesday summary post.

But we have those results now, and Trump got all 40 delegates from Utah.

So with those updates in, lets look at where everything is right now.

Democrats first:

And now the Republicans:

And that is it for now.

Next up, American Samoa for the Republicans on Friday.

Then a bunch of states on the 12th, and Trump should clinch his nomination.

Biden will have to wait a little longer, until the 19th.

130.1 days until the Republican National Convention

165.1 days until the Democratic National Convention

Delegates after Super Tuesday

Well that was exciting.

Big huge batch of delegates for both parties.

Lets talk Democrats first.

1406 delegates got allocated on the Democratic side, of which 99.8% went to Biden.

There were also 14 more "Uncommitted" delegates in Minnesota, adding to the 2 in Michigan that were already there. But as I mentioned then, these delegates are just free agents who will eventually still vote for someone (probably Biden), so they just count as TBD for us.

But there is that 0.2%. That would be 3 delegates from American Samoa that ended up going to Jason Palmer. Only 91 people voted in the Democratic territorial caucus in American Samoa. But 51 of them voted for Palmer compared to 40 for Biden. So they split the 6 delegates from American Samoa evenly, 3 delegates each.

This is the first person other than Biden to get delegates on the Democratic side this cycle. So we have a race! (Not really.)

Anyway, here are the key charts and graphs for the Democrats. We'll talk Republicans on the other side.

OK, Republicans.

819 delegates were allocated on the Republican side, of which 92.8% were for Trump.

There were also 4 "unbound" delegates in Minnesota. Like the Uncommitted delegates on the Democratic side, these end up essentially as free agents, so are just TBD here. They will probably vote for Trump.

Unlike the Democratic side, these 4 aren't the result of some campaign to have people vote a particular way, but appear to just be a result of Minnesota's particular rules on how to allocate delegates based on the vote results having some delegates "left over", and this is what they do with those.

Fun.

Haley did pick up 7.2% of the delegates from Super Tuesday though, including racking up her second outright win in Vermont, where she got all 17 delegates.

Of course that is nowhere near enough to change the trajectory of the race.

So here are the key charts and graphs:

And that is that for Super Tuesday.

Both Biden and Trump are very close to mathematically wrapping things up, but not quite. We'll have to wait for the 12th on the Republican side and the 19th on the Democratic side for that.

In the mean time, next up is the Democrats in Hawaii Wednesday, and the Republicans in American Samoa on Friday.

131.5 days until the Republican National Convention

166.5 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

Republican Delegates after North Dakota

Super Tuesday results will start coming in within a few hours.

But in the meantime, we had North Dakota yesterday.

Trump got all 29 delegates based on getting about 85% of the vote.

There would have been some proportionality, but only if the winning candidate was under 60%.

Trump wasn't.

So there you go.

Here are the key charts and graphs as of now. As usual, click through on any of them for even more.

And now we wait for Super Tuesday results. I'll update the site periodically through the evening, but won't do a blog post until it looks like the numbers are pretty settled.

Neither Biden will clinch the nomination tonight.

But they will both be pretty close.

132.1 days until the Republican National Convention

167.1 days until the Democratic National Convention

Republican Delegates: Haley Wins DC

So wow.

Haley actually manages to win something.

Looks like she got about 63% of the vote in the DC primary.

DC allows for proportional allocation if nobody gets over 50%, but Haley's 63% handily exceeds that limit, so she ends up getting all 19 delegates from DC.

For the first time ever since the start of the delegate race, this means she improves her position compared to where she was before a day of primaries or caucuses.

Before DC, she needed 55.50% of all remaining delegates in order to catch up to Trump and win.

Now she needs… 55.10% of the remaining delegates.

So far she has only gotten 14.24% of the delegates, so this would be a massive improvement, which is expected by exactly nobody.

But here we are. She does rack up a victory.

Here are all the charts and graphs:

Next up, Republicans in North Dakota tomorrow.

Then Super Tuesday.

Super Tuesday will be a huge number of delegates in both parties, but mathematically the earliest Trump could clinch is March 12th, and the earliest Biden could clinch is March 19th.

Once each party has clinched, I'll still update delegates on the site, but won't do blog posts about them unless something crazy happens.

133.8 days until the Republican National Convention

168.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

Republican Delegates after MI/ID/MO

I wasn't expecting Missouri.

Thought that wasn't going to be until May based on the Green Papers calendar.

But regardless, we got results for 54 delegates from Missouri, 39 delegates from Michigan, and 32 delegates from Idaho on Saturday.

Donald Trump got all 125 of those delegates.

And so the walk toward the nomination continues.

Next up, Republicans in DC later today, and in North Dakota Monday.

Then Super Tuesday.

134.3 days until the Republican National Convention

169.3 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

 

Delegates after Michigan Primaries

I meant to post this last night, but I fell asleep. Oops. One delegate changed in the Green Papers estimates since yesterday, so good I waited I guess.

In any case, Michigan had primaries on both the Republican and Democratic sides on Tuesday. For the Democrats, that's it for Michigan. For the Republicans Michigan still has a caucus that allocates most of the delegates on Saturday, so more to come.

On both the Republican and Democratic sides, people are trying to read the primary results for clues to what will happen in November. That's all well and good, but here I'm only going to talk about the delegate race.

On the Democratic side, there was lots of drama in the press about the vote for "Uncommitted", but from a delegate point of view, an uncommitted delegate is just that, a delegate that is still TBD in terms of how they will vote.

As of now it looks like there will be 2 uncommitted delegates coming out of Michigan. But until or unless we get actual people assigned as those delegates, and they declare who they intend to vote for, Biden still has 100% of the allocated delegates.

So yeah. That's what that was about. In terms of delegates anyway.

OK, on the Republican side, Haley got 4 out of the 16 delegates, but of course that was nowhere near what she'd have to be doing to be catching up to Trump. She is just falling further behind, although she is ever so slightly slowing Trump's progress toward the nomination.

Meanwhile, some revisions to the estimates in some earlier states. Haley lost 3 delegates to Trump in South Carolina, and 1 more to him in New Hampshire.

The lower Trump gets, the closer he is to clinching the nomination, the higher Haley goes, the closer she gets to being mathematically eliminated.

No real surprises here.


That is it for today's update. Next up: Republicans in Idaho and Michigan on Saturday, DC on Sunday, and North Dakota on Monday.

Then Super Tuesday for both parties.

137.8 days until the Republican National Convention

172.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

Republican Delegates after South Carolina

Hey wow. Looks like Haley managed to get some delegates after all.

In my last update I mentioned South Carolina was Winner-Take-All. Well… not quite. It is winner take all, but with some of the delegates being WTA statewide, but some by congressional district. And it looks like Haley squeaked out very narrow wins in South Carolina's 1st and 6th congressional districts.

This gives her 6 of South Carolina's 50 delegates.

Of course that gives Trump 44.

So Trump continues his inexorable trip to the nomination.

Well, inexorable absent something on the order of a major health crisis or some such.

In any case, here are the most important charts and graphs:

Click on any of the above for the rest of the charts, and for the Democratic side too.

Next up: The Democrats in Michigan on Tuesday. There is no drama expected there of course.

141.7 days until the Republican National Convention.

176.7 days until the Democratic National Convention.

Republican Delegates after NV & VI

Trump gets all 4 delegates from the Virgin Islands.

Haley got 26% of the vote there, but the Virgin Islands are Winner-Take-All, so that didn't matter.

Trump gets all 26 delegates from Nevada.

Haley got 30% in the primary vote there, coming in 2nd to "None of these Candidates", but that didn't matter since in Nevada, the primaries were not how delegates were allocated.

Instead, they were allocated by caucus, where the only other candidate besides Trump was Ryan Binkley, who got 0.71% of the vote. Never heard of him? Yeah, I hadn't either. Here is his website.

Anyway, that means Trump got 100% of the 30 delegates that were available tonight, which starts moving his "% of remaining delegates needed" number away from the 50% line, while Haley (and the others)  zoom upward.

Here are the most important charts and graphs:

Click on any of the above for the rest of the charts, and for the Democratic side too.

Next up: the Republicans in South Carolina on the 24th (winner-take-all), followed by the Democrats in Michigan on the 27th (proportional).

157.6 days until the Republican National Convention

192.6 days until the Democratic National Convention