Tag: Election 2024

Republican Delegates after NV & VI

Trump gets all 4 delegates from the Virgin Islands.

Haley got 26% of the vote there, but the Virgin Islands are Winner-Take-All, so that didn't matter.

Trump gets all 26 delegates from Nevada.

Haley got 30% in the primary vote there, coming in 2nd to "None of these Candidates", but that didn't matter since in Nevada, the primaries were not how delegates were allocated.

Instead, they were allocated by caucus, where the only other candidate besides Trump was Ryan Binkley, who got 0.71% of the vote. Never heard of him? Yeah, I hadn't either. Here is his website.

Anyway, that means Trump got 100% of the 30 delegates that were available tonight, which starts moving his "% of remaining delegates needed" number away from the 50% line, while Haley (and the others)  zoom upward.

Here are the most important charts and graphs:

Click on any of the above for the rest of the charts, and for the Democratic side too.

Next up: the Republicans in South Carolina on the 24th (winner-take-all), followed by the Democrats in Michigan on the 27th (proportional).

157.6 days until the Republican National Convention

192.6 days until the Democratic National Convention

Democratic Delegates after South Carolina

Well, this is boring.

Biden gets all the delegates from South Carolina.

This was also completely expected of course. The only place where the token opposition of Phillips and Williamson were expected to be able to get a non-trivial amount of support was in New Hampshire, where Phillips got 19.66% of the final vote, and Williamson got 4.05%, just ahead of write-in votes for Republican Nikki Haley at 3.84%. But of course no delegates were awarded based on that vote. New Hampshire will undoubtedly eventually get to send delegates to the convention, but how they will be allocated is yet to be seen.

Here in South Carolina, as of a few hours after poll closing, the partial count has Biden with 96.22%, Williamson with 2.08%, and Phillips with 1.71%. To get any delegates, Phillips or Williamson would have had to do MUCH better than that, either state wide, or at least in one of South Carolina's 7 congressional districts. Either way, they were not even close.

So Biden gets all 55 delegates from South Carolina, and starts on what will likely be an uninterrupted journey toward clinching the nomination on March 19th, the first date where it will be mathematically possible.

We'll track the updates as they happen from now until then, but unless something very unexpected happens, there won't be any drama.

Here is the main "% of remaining delegates needed to win" chart:

And the tabular summary of where things are:

Next up, Democrats in Nevada on Tuesday night.

It will probably be just as boring. But we will be here to confirm!

162.8 days until the Republican National Convention.

197.8 days until the Democratic National Convention.

Delegates After New Hampshire

On the Democratic side, New Hampshire has been penalized and only has 10 delegates, which theoretically won't be allocated by the results of today's primary, but maybe eventually will be, just not directly. In any case, we go by The Green Papers, and at least so far, they haven't estimated any delegates there. So lets stick to the Republicans, because that is where the action is anyway.

So what happened there? Well, Trump won New Hampshire as expected, although perhaps Haley made it a little closer than Trump would have liked.

Here is the full state breakdown so far:

Which makes the overview look like this:

I explained last time that the "% of Remaining Delegates Needed to Win" column there is the most important to watch, so here is the chart of that:

Ramaswamy and DeSantis are of course racing upward out of contention since they have dropped out.

With her showing tonight, Haley managed to not have her situation deteriorate TOO much. She went from needing 50.52% of the remaining delegates to win, to needing 50.57% of the remaining delegates to win. So she didn't improve her delegate position, it continued to deteriorate, but not by all that much.

Meanwhile, Trump improved from needing 50.02% of the remaining delegates to win, to only needing 49.98% of the remaining delegates, which is his first time under 50%. But just BARELY. His line has yet to start diving down toward 0%.

But it probably will.

The next contests on the calendar that actually allocate delegates on the Republican side will be the Nevada Caucus on February 8th (not the Nevada primary a few days earlier, which doesn't matter) and Caucus in the Virgin Islands. Haley registered for the Primary that doesn't matter in Nevada, but not for the Caucus, so Trump will likely win all 26 delegates there.

Then the next real competition with both Trump and Haley will be in South Carolina. Recent polls there have had Trump far ahead, and it is a winner take all state.

The only real hope on an actually interesting delegate race that isn't just a coronation for Trump is if somehow Haley's finish in New Hampshire was "close enough" to Trump that it shakes up Republicans in South Carolina (and beyond) and they start abandoning Trump in droves. Which seems really really unlikely.

We'll have the Democrats in South Carolina and Nevada before that though. So we'll see you again for that. Of course that will almost certainly just be walking to a coronation for Biden on that side of the fence.

So… yawn!

Wake me up if something interesting shakes things up.

173.6 days until the Republican National Convention

208.6 days until the Democratic National Convention