Tag: Democrats

Delegates: BOTH Trump and Biden Clinch their Nominations

Welp, I expected Trump to clinch tonight, but that Biden would have to wait a week.

But Tuesday morning Green Papers updated their site to note that both Delaware and Florida had canceled their Democratic primaries and given all their delegates to Biden.

That was enough to put Biden close enough to clinch tonight too.

Since my update Sunday for the Republicans and my update Thursday for the Democrats, there have been results in a bunch of states, and some minor adjustments in others. There are still more results pending for tonight. Democrats Abroad, and the Republican caucus in Hawaii.

But I'm not going to wait for them. Here are the net delegate changes since my Sunday post:

  • Biden +484 delegates
  • Trump +137 delegates
  • Haley +3 delegates

And with that, we have presumptive nominees in both parties. The only way this changes is if one or both candidates drop out or become incapacitated or whatever before the conventions.

If that happens, I'll be back with more delegate blog posts. Otherwise, I'll continue to update the delegate totals on the website until the end of the primary season, but won't be posting anything here.

When you effectively have two incumbents, turns out the delegate races are pretty boring. Usually you have at something interesting to follow in at least one of the two parties.

Anyway, here are the important graphs and charts, one last time.

Democrats:

Republicans:

And that's it.

I am way overdue for a general election polling update. I'll get to it as soon as I can.

In the meantime, here are the countdowns until the conventions, one more time:

124.8 days until the Republican National Convention

159.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

Democratic Delegates with Hawaii, plus Super Tuesday Cleanup

Welp, first off, Hawaii had a Democratic caucus yesterday.

There may still be some adjustments, but for the moment it looks like 15 more delegates for Biden, and 7 uncommitted that we keep as TBD.

Second, Utah had a Republican caucus on Super Tuesday, but The Green Papers didn't have results until after I did my Super Tuesday summary post.

But we have those results now, and Trump got all 40 delegates from Utah.

So with those updates in, lets look at where everything is right now.

Democrats first:

And now the Republicans:

And that is it for now.

Next up, American Samoa for the Republicans on Friday.

Then a bunch of states on the 12th, and Trump should clinch his nomination.

Biden will have to wait a little longer, until the 19th.

130.1 days until the Republican National Convention

165.1 days until the Democratic National Convention

Delegates after Super Tuesday

Well that was exciting.

Big huge batch of delegates for both parties.

Lets talk Democrats first.

1406 delegates got allocated on the Democratic side, of which 99.8% went to Biden.

There were also 14 more "Uncommitted" delegates in Minnesota, adding to the 2 in Michigan that were already there. But as I mentioned then, these delegates are just free agents who will eventually still vote for someone (probably Biden), so they just count as TBD for us.

But there is that 0.2%. That would be 3 delegates from American Samoa that ended up going to Jason Palmer. Only 91 people voted in the Democratic territorial caucus in American Samoa. But 51 of them voted for Palmer compared to 40 for Biden. So they split the 6 delegates from American Samoa evenly, 3 delegates each.

This is the first person other than Biden to get delegates on the Democratic side this cycle. So we have a race! (Not really.)

Anyway, here are the key charts and graphs for the Democrats. We'll talk Republicans on the other side.

OK, Republicans.

819 delegates were allocated on the Republican side, of which 92.8% were for Trump.

There were also 4 "unbound" delegates in Minnesota. Like the Uncommitted delegates on the Democratic side, these end up essentially as free agents, so are just TBD here. They will probably vote for Trump.

Unlike the Democratic side, these 4 aren't the result of some campaign to have people vote a particular way, but appear to just be a result of Minnesota's particular rules on how to allocate delegates based on the vote results having some delegates "left over", and this is what they do with those.

Fun.

Haley did pick up 7.2% of the delegates from Super Tuesday though, including racking up her second outright win in Vermont, where she got all 17 delegates.

Of course that is nowhere near enough to change the trajectory of the race.

So here are the key charts and graphs:

And that is that for Super Tuesday.

Both Biden and Trump are very close to mathematically wrapping things up, but not quite. We'll have to wait for the 12th on the Republican side and the 19th on the Democratic side for that.

In the mean time, next up is the Democrats in Hawaii Wednesday, and the Republicans in American Samoa on Friday.

131.5 days until the Republican National Convention

166.5 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

Democratic Delegates after South Carolina

Well, this is boring.

Biden gets all the delegates from South Carolina.

This was also completely expected of course. The only place where the token opposition of Phillips and Williamson were expected to be able to get a non-trivial amount of support was in New Hampshire, where Phillips got 19.66% of the final vote, and Williamson got 4.05%, just ahead of write-in votes for Republican Nikki Haley at 3.84%. But of course no delegates were awarded based on that vote. New Hampshire will undoubtedly eventually get to send delegates to the convention, but how they will be allocated is yet to be seen.

Here in South Carolina, as of a few hours after poll closing, the partial count has Biden with 96.22%, Williamson with 2.08%, and Phillips with 1.71%. To get any delegates, Phillips or Williamson would have had to do MUCH better than that, either state wide, or at least in one of South Carolina's 7 congressional districts. Either way, they were not even close.

So Biden gets all 55 delegates from South Carolina, and starts on what will likely be an uninterrupted journey toward clinching the nomination on March 19th, the first date where it will be mathematically possible.

We'll track the updates as they happen from now until then, but unless something very unexpected happens, there won't be any drama.

Here is the main "% of remaining delegates needed to win" chart:

And the tabular summary of where things are:

Next up, Democrats in Nevada on Tuesday night.

It will probably be just as boring. But we will be here to confirm!

162.8 days until the Republican National Convention.

197.8 days until the Democratic National Convention.