Tag: Haley

Delegates after Super Tuesday

Well that was exciting.

Big huge batch of delegates for both parties.

Lets talk Democrats first.

1406 delegates got allocated on the Democratic side, of which 99.8% went to Biden.

There were also 14 more "Uncommitted" delegates in Minnesota, adding to the 2 in Michigan that were already there. But as I mentioned then, these delegates are just free agents who will eventually still vote for someone (probably Biden), so they just count as TBD for us.

But there is that 0.2%. That would be 3 delegates from American Samoa that ended up going to Jason Palmer. Only 91 people voted in the Democratic territorial caucus in American Samoa. But 51 of them voted for Palmer compared to 40 for Biden. So they split the 6 delegates from American Samoa evenly, 3 delegates each.

This is the first person other than Biden to get delegates on the Democratic side this cycle. So we have a race! (Not really.)

Anyway, here are the key charts and graphs for the Democrats. We'll talk Republicans on the other side.

OK, Republicans.

819 delegates were allocated on the Republican side, of which 92.8% were for Trump.

There were also 4 "unbound" delegates in Minnesota. Like the Uncommitted delegates on the Democratic side, these end up essentially as free agents, so are just TBD here. They will probably vote for Trump.

Unlike the Democratic side, these 4 aren't the result of some campaign to have people vote a particular way, but appear to just be a result of Minnesota's particular rules on how to allocate delegates based on the vote results having some delegates "left over", and this is what they do with those.

Fun.

Haley did pick up 7.2% of the delegates from Super Tuesday though, including racking up her second outright win in Vermont, where she got all 17 delegates.

Of course that is nowhere near enough to change the trajectory of the race.

So here are the key charts and graphs:

And that is that for Super Tuesday.

Both Biden and Trump are very close to mathematically wrapping things up, but not quite. We'll have to wait for the 12th on the Republican side and the 19th on the Democratic side for that.

In the mean time, next up is the Democrats in Hawaii Wednesday, and the Republicans in American Samoa on Friday.

131.5 days until the Republican National Convention

166.5 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

Republican Delegates: Haley Wins DC

So wow.

Haley actually manages to win something.

Looks like she got about 63% of the vote in the DC primary.

DC allows for proportional allocation if nobody gets over 50%, but Haley's 63% handily exceeds that limit, so she ends up getting all 19 delegates from DC.

For the first time ever since the start of the delegate race, this means she improves her position compared to where she was before a day of primaries or caucuses.

Before DC, she needed 55.50% of all remaining delegates in order to catch up to Trump and win.

Now she needs… 55.10% of the remaining delegates.

So far she has only gotten 14.24% of the delegates, so this would be a massive improvement, which is expected by exactly nobody.

But here we are. She does rack up a victory.

Here are all the charts and graphs:

Next up, Republicans in North Dakota tomorrow.

Then Super Tuesday.

Super Tuesday will be a huge number of delegates in both parties, but mathematically the earliest Trump could clinch is March 12th, and the earliest Biden could clinch is March 19th.

Once each party has clinched, I'll still update delegates on the site, but won't do blog posts about them unless something crazy happens.

133.8 days until the Republican National Convention

168.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

Delegates after Michigan Primaries

I meant to post this last night, but I fell asleep. Oops. One delegate changed in the Green Papers estimates since yesterday, so good I waited I guess.

In any case, Michigan had primaries on both the Republican and Democratic sides on Tuesday. For the Democrats, that's it for Michigan. For the Republicans Michigan still has a caucus that allocates most of the delegates on Saturday, so more to come.

On both the Republican and Democratic sides, people are trying to read the primary results for clues to what will happen in November. That's all well and good, but here I'm only going to talk about the delegate race.

On the Democratic side, there was lots of drama in the press about the vote for "Uncommitted", but from a delegate point of view, an uncommitted delegate is just that, a delegate that is still TBD in terms of how they will vote.

As of now it looks like there will be 2 uncommitted delegates coming out of Michigan. But until or unless we get actual people assigned as those delegates, and they declare who they intend to vote for, Biden still has 100% of the allocated delegates.

So yeah. That's what that was about. In terms of delegates anyway.

OK, on the Republican side, Haley got 4 out of the 16 delegates, but of course that was nowhere near what she'd have to be doing to be catching up to Trump. She is just falling further behind, although she is ever so slightly slowing Trump's progress toward the nomination.

Meanwhile, some revisions to the estimates in some earlier states. Haley lost 3 delegates to Trump in South Carolina, and 1 more to him in New Hampshire.

The lower Trump gets, the closer he is to clinching the nomination, the higher Haley goes, the closer she gets to being mathematically eliminated.

No real surprises here.


That is it for today's update. Next up: Republicans in Idaho and Michigan on Saturday, DC on Sunday, and North Dakota on Monday.

Then Super Tuesday for both parties.

137.8 days until the Republican National Convention

172.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

Delegates After New Hampshire

On the Democratic side, New Hampshire has been penalized and only has 10 delegates, which theoretically won't be allocated by the results of today's primary, but maybe eventually will be, just not directly. In any case, we go by The Green Papers, and at least so far, they haven't estimated any delegates there. So lets stick to the Republicans, because that is where the action is anyway.

So what happened there? Well, Trump won New Hampshire as expected, although perhaps Haley made it a little closer than Trump would have liked.

Here is the full state breakdown so far:

Which makes the overview look like this:

I explained last time that the "% of Remaining Delegates Needed to Win" column there is the most important to watch, so here is the chart of that:

Ramaswamy and DeSantis are of course racing upward out of contention since they have dropped out.

With her showing tonight, Haley managed to not have her situation deteriorate TOO much. She went from needing 50.52% of the remaining delegates to win, to needing 50.57% of the remaining delegates to win. So she didn't improve her delegate position, it continued to deteriorate, but not by all that much.

Meanwhile, Trump improved from needing 50.02% of the remaining delegates to win, to only needing 49.98% of the remaining delegates, which is his first time under 50%. But just BARELY. His line has yet to start diving down toward 0%.

But it probably will.

The next contests on the calendar that actually allocate delegates on the Republican side will be the Nevada Caucus on February 8th (not the Nevada primary a few days earlier, which doesn't matter) and Caucus in the Virgin Islands. Haley registered for the Primary that doesn't matter in Nevada, but not for the Caucus, so Trump will likely win all 26 delegates there.

Then the next real competition with both Trump and Haley will be in South Carolina. Recent polls there have had Trump far ahead, and it is a winner take all state.

The only real hope on an actually interesting delegate race that isn't just a coronation for Trump is if somehow Haley's finish in New Hampshire was "close enough" to Trump that it shakes up Republicans in South Carolina (and beyond) and they start abandoning Trump in droves. Which seems really really unlikely.

We'll have the Democrats in South Carolina and Nevada before that though. So we'll see you again for that. Of course that will almost certainly just be walking to a coronation for Biden on that side of the fence.

So… yawn!

Wake me up if something interesting shakes things up.

173.6 days until the Republican National Convention

208.6 days until the Democratic National Convention

 

 

Trump Wins Iowa Caucus (as expected)

So far, all the posts here on Election Graphs in the 2024 cycle have been about looking at state level polls for the general election in November.

That ends today, as the second part of Election Graphs opens up, as the delegate race begins on the Republican side.

The numbers may still shift a bit as all the T's are crossed and all the I's are dotted for the final counts, but the preliminary delegate counts at The Green Papers haven't shifted in a couple of hours, so that's good enough for now, lets start looking at the new charts and graphs.

Many places will have tables showing the delegate totals. Here is ours:

The first column shows how many delegates each candidate has right now, the second shows that as a percentage of the delegates so far, the third shows the percentage of the remaining delegates each candidate needs to win, and the last column is how much better than their performance so far each candidate needs to do to win.

The delegate race page shows graphs for all of these, but the main one, the one that matters the most, is the "% of remaining delegates needed" graph:

OK, we've only had the one delegate estimate from Iowa so far, so this is just a bunch of straight lines right now… kinda boring. It will get more interesting as we get results from more states.

Well, how interesting will depend on if we get any surprises in the race, but it will stop just being straight lines in any case.

Let me explain what you are looking at.

First, we specifically show graphs showing how those numbers evolve over time, not just "now". The data table is nice and all, but to get a sense of how things are going, it really helps to see how things have been changing. Is someone catching up? Or falling behind?

Second, while we do have a page that shows things in a date-based way, the primary view has the % of delegates that have been allocated on the x-axis rather than the date. This gives a much better sense of how far though the process we are. After Iowa, the Republicans have allocated 1.65% of their delegates. We are still a very long way from the end. On some primary days, only a small percentage of delegates will be allocated, but on the other extreme, 35.99% of the delegates will be allocated on Super Tuesday alone.

Third, the y-axis is of course the % of the remaining delegates that each candidate needs to win.

To me, the other graphs are nice, but this is the most important metric of all.

Why is this the most important thing? Because the absolute numbers can be misleading, because as more and more delegates get allocated, there is less and less opportunity for whoever is trailing the leader to catch up, and the leader has to do less and less in order to coast to the victory.

Just like any race, if you are behind, the less track you have left before the finish line, the faster you have to go to in order to catch up to the winner before they get to the finish line. It does you no good to catch up to them after they have already won.

The "% of remaining delegates needed to win" graph shows that more clearly than anything else.

Even though only a very small number of delegates have been allocated so far, you can already see that in the chart above. Everybody starts out needing just barely over 50% of the delegates to win.

But now with just a few delegates estimated, Ramaswamy, who actually already dropped out due to his 4th place finish here, would now have needed 50.73% of the remaining delegates to win. Haley needs 50.52%, DeSantis needs 50.48%.

Meanwhile Trump, after getting exactly half of the delegates from Iowa, only needs 50.02% of the remaining delegates to win.

As we continue through the primaries and caucuses, the losers will have their numbers move toward 100% faster and faster, while the winner will start dropping down toward 0%. This represents those who are behind needing to get a larger and larger percentage of the delegates to catch up, while the person in the lead needs less and less.

Later on in the race, it is very possible that a candidate could win a state, but not by enough to be on a pace to catch up, so even though they won, they still end up falling further behind.

In the epic 2008 race between Obama and Clinton, this happened to Clinton over and over in the second half of the race. She was winning states, but not by enough to be on a pace to catch up  to Obama.

As each losing candidate hits 100% and then goes beyond it, they are eliminated.

When the winning candidate gets to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.

OK, that sounds complicated. It really isn't. It will become clearer as the race progresses.

But if you really like raw counts better, it is there too:

On there is it just about who gets to 1,215 first.

In any case, next up New Hampshire, including delegates for the Democrats too, despite the penalties the Democrats put on New Hampshire for not moving their primary later in the year.

It is very very possible, probably very likely actually, that there will be no real drama in either party's delegate race this year. Even if Haley puts on a good show in New Hampshire next week.

Regardless, we'll track it all here, and see how it goes.

181.6 days until the Republican National Convention

216.6 days until the Democratic National Convention

Off we go.