Month: February 2024

Delegates after Michigan Primaries

I meant to post this last night, but I fell asleep. Oops. One delegate changed in the Green Papers estimates since yesterday, so good I waited I guess.

In any case, Michigan had primaries on both the Republican and Democratic sides on Tuesday. For the Democrats, that's it for Michigan. For the Republicans Michigan still has a caucus that allocates most of the delegates on Saturday, so more to come.

On both the Republican and Democratic sides, people are trying to read the primary results for clues to what will happen in November. That's all well and good, but here I'm only going to talk about the delegate race.

On the Democratic side, there was lots of drama in the press about the vote for "Uncommitted", but from a delegate point of view, an uncommitted delegate is just that, a delegate that is still TBD in terms of how they will vote.

As of now it looks like there will be 2 uncommitted delegates coming out of Michigan. But until or unless we get actual people assigned as those delegates, and they declare who they intend to vote for, Biden still has 100% of the allocated delegates.

So yeah. That's what that was about. In terms of delegates anyway.

OK, on the Republican side, Haley got 4 out of the 16 delegates, but of course that was nowhere near what she'd have to be doing to be catching up to Trump. She is just falling further behind, although she is ever so slightly slowing Trump's progress toward the nomination.

Meanwhile, some revisions to the estimates in some earlier states. Haley lost 3 delegates to Trump in South Carolina, and 1 more to him in New Hampshire.

The lower Trump gets, the closer he is to clinching the nomination, the higher Haley goes, the closer she gets to being mathematically eliminated.

No real surprises here.


That is it for today's update. Next up: Republicans in Idaho and Michigan on Saturday, DC on Sunday, and North Dakota on Monday.

Then Super Tuesday for both parties.

137.8 days until the Republican National Convention

172.8 days until the Democratic National Convention

Republican Delegates after South Carolina

Hey wow. Looks like Haley managed to get some delegates after all.

In my last update I mentioned South Carolina was Winner-Take-All. Well… not quite. It is winner take all, but with some of the delegates being WTA statewide, but some by congressional district. And it looks like Haley squeaked out very narrow wins in South Carolina's 1st and 6th congressional districts.

This gives her 6 of South Carolina's 50 delegates.

Of course that gives Trump 44.

So Trump continues his inexorable trip to the nomination.

Well, inexorable absent something on the order of a major health crisis or some such.

In any case, here are the most important charts and graphs:

Click on any of the above for the rest of the charts, and for the Democratic side too.

Next up: The Democrats in Michigan on Tuesday. There is no drama expected there of course.

141.7 days until the Republican National Convention.

176.7 days until the Democratic National Convention.

Republican Delegates after NV & VI

Trump gets all 4 delegates from the Virgin Islands.

Haley got 26% of the vote there, but the Virgin Islands are Winner-Take-All, so that didn't matter.

Trump gets all 26 delegates from Nevada.

Haley got 30% in the primary vote there, coming in 2nd to "None of these Candidates", but that didn't matter since in Nevada, the primaries were not how delegates were allocated.

Instead, they were allocated by caucus, where the only other candidate besides Trump was Ryan Binkley, who got 0.71% of the vote. Never heard of him? Yeah, I hadn't either. Here is his website.

Anyway, that means Trump got 100% of the 30 delegates that were available tonight, which starts moving his "% of remaining delegates needed" number away from the 50% line, while Haley (and the others)  zoom upward.

Here are the most important charts and graphs:

Click on any of the above for the rest of the charts, and for the Democratic side too.

Next up: the Republicans in South Carolina on the 24th (winner-take-all), followed by the Democrats in Michigan on the 27th (proportional).

157.6 days until the Republican National Convention

192.6 days until the Democratic National Convention

Democratic Delegates after Nevada

As expected, Biden gets all 36 delegates.

There is no serious competition of course, so while I'll keep updating, we are just going to see a Biden march to clinching the nomination.

Next up will be the Republicans in Nevada and the Virgin Islands on Thursday, which is expected to be equally boring from the other side.

In any case, here are the graph and table:

159.7 days until the Republican National Convention

194.7 days until the Democratic National Convention

Democratic Delegates after South Carolina

Well, this is boring.

Biden gets all the delegates from South Carolina.

This was also completely expected of course. The only place where the token opposition of Phillips and Williamson were expected to be able to get a non-trivial amount of support was in New Hampshire, where Phillips got 19.66% of the final vote, and Williamson got 4.05%, just ahead of write-in votes for Republican Nikki Haley at 3.84%. But of course no delegates were awarded based on that vote. New Hampshire will undoubtedly eventually get to send delegates to the convention, but how they will be allocated is yet to be seen.

Here in South Carolina, as of a few hours after poll closing, the partial count has Biden with 96.22%, Williamson with 2.08%, and Phillips with 1.71%. To get any delegates, Phillips or Williamson would have had to do MUCH better than that, either state wide, or at least in one of South Carolina's 7 congressional districts. Either way, they were not even close.

So Biden gets all 55 delegates from South Carolina, and starts on what will likely be an uninterrupted journey toward clinching the nomination on March 19th, the first date where it will be mathematically possible.

We'll track the updates as they happen from now until then, but unless something very unexpected happens, there won't be any drama.

Here is the main "% of remaining delegates needed to win" chart:

And the tabular summary of where things are:

Next up, Democrats in Nevada on Tuesday night.

It will probably be just as boring. But we will be here to confirm!

162.8 days until the Republican National Convention.

197.8 days until the Democratic National Convention.