Since the last update, there have been polls in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The only category changes that resulted were in the Biden vs. Trump matchup.
- Michigan moved from Solid Biden to Strong Biden
- Wisconsin moved from Weak Biden to Strong Biden.
Only the second of these changes the Election Graphs "expected range," lowering Trump's "Best Case" from a 98 electoral vote win to a 78 electoral vote win by taking Wisconsin out of the list of swing states.
That dip in the upper right of the "envelope" represents this change.
Now, keep in mind that this is the result of the very first Biden vs. Trump poll in Wisconsin. It showed Biden leading Trump by 8.6% in a two-way race, and leading by 6.8% if you include Schultz as a third party candidate. Since the 2000 election result, where the Democrat won by 0.2% was getting knocked off the average, this represents an improvement.
The average goes from a Democratic lead of 4.1% based on the last five presidential elections, to a 5.6% Biden lead based on the previous four presidential elections, plus this first poll.
But this is still only one poll. And of course people will point out that the final Election Graphs average in Wisconsin in 2016 was Clinton up by 7.1%, and Trump still won by 0.8%. So yes, polls can be wrong. But that was one of only a very few. For now though, with this minimal data, Biden is looking very good in Wisconsin.
And just checking the comparisons with how other candidates are doing against Trump, Biden is still doing better than the other four "best polled" Democrats in both Michigan and Wisconsin.
596.6 days until polls start to close. Stay tuned.
For more information:
This post is an update based on the data on the Election Graphs Electoral College 2020 page. Election Graphs tracks a poll-based estimate of the Electoral College. The charts, graphs, and maps in the post above are all as of the time of this post. Click through on any image to go to a page with the current interactive versions of that chart, along with additional details. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates. For those interested in individual poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as I add them. If you find the information in these posts informative or useful, please consider visiting the donation page.