This summary assumes that any state with a current poll average margin of less than 5% could go either way, leading to the two best cases where one candidate wins all of these states. The "Expected" case is when each candidate wins every state they currently lead, regardless of how small that lead may be.
This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.
2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs)
Accounting For Time Left Before Election
Median:
Trump by 36
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 112 ----- Trump by 142
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 208 ---------- Trump by 172
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 348 --------------- Trump by 220
Odds:
Harris: 40.7% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 59.3%
This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.
Probabilistic View
If The Election Was Always Now
2024 EC (Indep States Probs)
If The Election Was Always Now
Median:
Trump by 34
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 6 ----- Trump by 70
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 46 ---------- Trump by 102
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 84 --------------- Trump by 130
Odds:
Harris: 18.8% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 79.9%
This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.
2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs)
If The Election Was Always Now
Median:
Trump by 56
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 80 ----- Trump by 122
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 114 ---------- Trump by 162
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 208 --------------- Trump by 172
Odds:
Harris: 35.4% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 64.6%
This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.
Ten most needed polls: Iowa, Maine (CD2), Nebraska (CD2), Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, South Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana, Maine (All)
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".