2020 Electoral College

Sanders vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-10-15 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-10-17 18:43 UTC

Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

 

Poll Average Categorization

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump BestSanders/Trump TIE
ExpectedSanders/Trump TIE
Sanders BestSanders/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Sanders is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Sanders by 124
1σ (68.27%) range:
Sanders by 184 ----- Sanders by 58
2σ (95.45%) range:
Sanders by 220 ---------- Sanders by 8
3σ (99.73%) range:
Sanders by 232 --------------- Trump by 40
Odds:
Sanders: 98.3% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 1.4%

All of the above represents the situation as if the election was held today. Election Graphs does not try to extrapolate trends into the future. Things can and will change, sometimes dramatically in just a matter of weeks. Interpret these results accordingly.

 

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

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Solid Sanders

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((82.4%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((29.5%)))))

California |55 EV|    ((27.0%))   

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((25.8%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV|  ((((25.8%)))) 

New York |29 EV| (((((24.2%)))))

Rhode Island | 4 EV| (((((24.1%)))))

Maryland |10 EV| (((((20.7%)))))

Illinois |20 EV| (((((16.3%)))))

Connecticut | 7 EV|  ((((16.0%)))) 

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Washington |12 EV|  ((((15.4%)))) 

Delaware | 3 EV| (((((15.1%)))))

New Jersey |14 EV| (((((14.0%)))))

Maine (All) | 2 EV|   (((10.3%)))  

Strong Sanders

Oregon | 7 EV| ((((( 8.8%)))))

New Hampshire | 4 EV|     ( 7.3%)    

New Mexico | 5 EV| ((((( 6.6%)))))

Virginia |13 EV|   ((( 6.0%)))  

Wisconsin |10 EV|       5.8%     

Minnesota |10 EV| ((((( 5.1%)))))

Weak Sanders

Colorado | 9 EV|  (((( 4.8%)))) 

Michigan |16 EV|       4.8%     

•  Pennsylvania |20 EV|       4.7%     

Nevada | 6 EV|   ((( 4.4%)))  

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 3.4%)))))

Ohio |18 EV|       1.8%     

Texas |38 EV|       1.2%     

Florida |29 EV|    (( 0.5%))   

Weak Trump

North Carolina |15 EV|       0.1%     

Iowa | 6 EV|    (( 0.6%))   

Strong Trump

Arizona |11 EV|     ( 8.5%)    

Georgia |16 EV| ((((( 9.3%)))))

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 9.7%)))))

Solid Trump

Missouri |10 EV|   (((11.4%)))  

South Carolina | 9 EV|   (((12.4%)))  

Indiana |11 EV| (((((12.9%)))))

Montana | 3 EV|  ((((13.0%)))) 

Louisiana | 8 EV| (((((15.5%)))))

Mississippi | 6 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Tennessee |11 EV| (((((15.9%)))))

Alaska | 3 EV|  ((((16.6%)))) 

Arkansas | 6 EV| (((((17.1%)))))

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((19.5%)))))

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((20.1%)))))

West Virginia | 5 EV| (((((20.2%)))))

Kansas | 6 EV| (((((20.7%)))))

Kentucky | 8 EV|  ((((22.1%)))) 

Alabama | 9 EV| (((((22.4%)))))

North Dakota | 3 EV| (((((23.8%)))))

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((24.8%)))))

Utah | 6 EV|  ((((26.8%)))) 

Oklahoma | 7 EV| (((((30.9%)))))

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((33.4%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| (((((39.7%)))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((46.6%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Florida, Iowa, Maine (CD2), Minnesota, Colorado,
New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, North Carolina, Georgia

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 4.5 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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