2020 Electoral College
Sanders vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-03-27 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-06-24 06:52 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Sanders vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-03-27 00:00
Marquette LV [2]
48.0%
45.0%
Sanders by 3.0%
2020-03-24 2020-03-29
2020-04-01 2020-06-24 06:52
2020-03-27 00:00
Marquette RV [2]
45.0%
47.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2020-03-24 2020-03-29
2020-04-01 2020-04-01 17:35
2020-03-21 12:00
Baldwin Wallace w/Probably [2]
42.0%
45.8%
Trump by 3.8%
2020-03-17 2020-03-25
2020-03-26 2020-03-26 17:11
2020-03-21 12:00
Baldwin Wallace Definitely [2]
28.2%
35.7%
Trump by 7.5%
2020-03-17 2020-03-25
2020-03-26 2020-03-26 17:09
2020-03-18 12:00
Restoration PAC
42.8%
50.3%
Trump by 7.5%
2020-03-17 2020-03-19
2020-03-27 2020-03-27 18:17
2020-03-11 00:00
PPP
48.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2020-03-10 2020-03-11
2020-03-12 2020-03-12 16:32
2020-03-07 12:00
YouGov
46.0%
40.0%
Sanders by 6.0%
2020-03-06 2020-03-08
2020-03-09 2020-03-09 19:43
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-03-06 12:00
Firehouse
42.0%
48.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-03-05 2020-03-07
2020-03-08 2020-03-09 15:24
2020-02-21 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
50.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 4.0%
2020-02-19 2020-02-23
2020-02-27 2020-06-24 06:39
2020-02-21 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
48.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2020-02-19 2020-02-23
2020-02-27 2020-02-27 21:13
2020-02-16 00:00
YouGov
46.0%
44.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2020-02-11 2020-02-20
2020-02-23 2020-02-23 16:26
2020-02-15 12:00
Quinnipiac
43.0%
50.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-02-12 2020-02-18
2020-02-20 2020-02-20 18:59
2020-02-12 12:00
Expedition
45.0%
46.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2020-02-06 2020-02-18
2020-02-24 2020-03-07 16:18
2020-01-15 12:00
Tarrance Definite [2]
37.0%
42.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2020-01-14 2020-01-16
2020-02-13 2020-02-14 01:32
2020-01-15 12:00
Tarrance All [2]
47.0%
47.0%
TIED
2020-01-14 2020-01-16
2020-02-13 2020-02-14 01:31
2020-01-10 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
47.0%
47.0%
TIED
2020-01-08 2020-01-12
2020-01-15 2020-06-24 06:31
2020-01-10 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
47.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 1.0%
2020-01-08 2020-01-12
2020-01-15 2020-01-15 19:14
2020-01-07 00:00
Fox News
46.0%
42.0%
Sanders by 4.0%
2020-01-05 2020-01-08
2020-01-09 2020-01-10 00:14
2019-12-06 00:00
Marquette LV [2]
46.0%
48.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-08
2019-12-12 2020-06-24 06:19
2019-12-06 00:00
Marquette RV [2]
45.0%
47.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-08
2019-12-12 2019-12-13 07:06
2019-12-04 12:00
Firehouse
38.0%
51.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-05
2019-12-08 2019-12-09 20:38
2019-11-15 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
45.0%
49.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2019-11-13 2019-11-17
2019-11-20 2020-06-24 06:07
2019-11-15 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
45.0%
48.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2019-11-13 2019-11-17
2019-11-20 2019-11-20 19:32
2019-11-03 12:00
Civiqs
47.0%
44.0%
Sanders by 3.0%
2019-11-03 2019-11-03
2019-11-05 2019-11-06 01:55
2019-10-20 00:00
NYT/Sienna LV [2]
47.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 1.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-26
2019-11-04 2019-11-04 20:58
2019-10-20 00:00
NYT/Sienna RV [2]
47.0%
45.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-26
2019-11-04 2019-11-04 20:56
2019-10-15 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
48.0%
45.0%
Sanders by 3.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-17
2019-10-23 2020-06-24 05:54
2019-10-15 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
48.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-17
2019-10-23 2019-10-24 07:24
2019-10-01 00:00
Fox News
45.0%
40.0%
Sanders by 5.0%
2019-09-29 2019-10-02
2019-10-06 2019-10-06 15:57
2019-09-08 12:00
Firehouse
49.0%
43.0%
Sanders by 6.0%
2019-09-07 2019-09-09
2019-09-12 2019-09-13 05:40
2019-08-27 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
48.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2019-08-25 2019-08-29
2019-09-04 2020-06-24 05:44
2019-08-27 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
48.0%
44.0%
Sanders by 4.0%
2019-08-25 2019-08-29
2019-09-04 2019-09-04 21:44
2019-06-12 12:00
Firehouse
47.0%
40.0%
Sanders by 7.0%
2019-06-11 2019-06-13
2019-06-16 2019-06-19 21:32
2019-04-17 00:00
Zogby
49.0%
42.0%
Sanders by 7.0%
2019-04-15 2019-04-18
2019-04-24 2019-04-25 04:44
2019-04-16 12:00
Tulchin Final [2]
50.0%
42.0%
Sanders by 8.0%
2019-04-14 2019-04-18
2019-04-22 2019-04-23 06:36
2019-04-16 12:00
Tulchin Initial [2]
52.0%
42.0%
Sanders by 10.0%
2019-04-14 2019-04-18
2019-04-22 2019-04-23 06:34
2019-03-20 12:00
Firehouse
48.0%
41.0%
Sanders by 7.0%
2019-03-19 2019-03-21
2019-03-23 2019-03-27 02:37
2019-03-16 12:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
48.4%
46.2%
Sanders by 2.2%
2019-03-15 2019-03-17
2019-03-17 2019-03-18 06:26
2019-03-16 12:00
Emerson [2]
52.1%
47.9%
Sanders by 4.2%
2019-03-15 2019-03-17
2019-03-17 2019-03-18 06:25
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
46.5%
47.2%
REP by 0.8%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:34
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.8%
45.9%
DEM by 6.9%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:19
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
56.2%
42.3%
DEM by 13.9%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:22
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
49.7%
49.3%
DEM by 0.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:19
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
47.8%
47.6%
DEM by 0.2%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:16
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
48.8%
38.5%
DEM by 10.3%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:53
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
41.1%
36.8%
DEM by 4.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:09
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
51.4%
47.8%
DEM by 3.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:13
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
45.0%
54.2%
REP by 9.2%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:46
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
43.2%
47.9%
REP by 4.7%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:35
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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