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2020 Electoral College

Sanders vs Trump - Maine (All) [2 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-10-12 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-10-15 20:44 UTC

Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Sanders vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Sanders Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Sanders Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterSandersTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-10-12 12:00

PPP

53.0%

43.0%

Sanders
by 10.0%

2019-10-11
2019-10-13

2019-10-15
2019-10-15 20:44

2019-06-24 12:00

Gravis

53.0%

47.0%

Sanders
by 6.0%

2019-06-24
2019-06-24

2019-06-28
2019-06-28 17:54

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.8%

44.9%

DEM
by 3.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-19 11:10

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

56.3%

41.0%

DEM
by 15.3%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:32

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.7%

40.4%

DEM
by 17.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 06:00

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterSandersTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

53.6%

44.6%

DEM
by 9.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:05

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

49.1%

44.0%

DEM
by 5.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:38

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.6%

30.8%

DEM
by 20.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:10

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

38.8%

30.4%

DEM
by 8.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:40

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.9%

55.3%

REP
by 11.5%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:05

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.8%

60.8%

REP
by 22.1%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:47

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.3%

45.6%

REP
by 3.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:45

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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