2020 Electoral College
Sanders vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-03-13 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-03-16 20:10 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Sanders vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-03-13 00:00
Marist
45.0%
48.0%
Trump
2020-03-10
2020-03-16
2020-03-13 00:00
Monmouth
43.0%
44.0%
Trump
2020-03-11
2020-03-16
2020-03-09 00:00
Univision w/Lean [2]
48.0%
43.0%
Sanders
2020-03-06
2020-03-13
2020-03-09 00:00
Univision wo/Lean [2]
42.0%
39.0%
Sanders
2020-03-06
2020-03-13
2020-03-04 00:00
OHPI
38.0%
45.0%
Trump
2020-03-03
2020-03-13
2020-03-03 00:00
PPP
46.0%
47.0%
Trump
2020-03-02
2020-03-05
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-02-13 12:00
Climate Nexus
44.0%
46.0%
Trump
2020-02-11
2020-03-13
2020-01-03 12:00
PPP
46.0%
47.0%
Trump
2020-01-02
2020-01-08
2019-12-04 00:00
OHPI
34.0%
47.0%
Trump
2019-12-03
2019-12-09
2019-11-03 12:00
Civiqs
46.0%
44.0%
Sanders
2019-11-03
2019-11-05
2019-10-27 00:00
Emerson
48.6%
51.4%
Trump
2019-10-25
2019-10-29
2019-10-18 12:00
NYT/Sienna LV [2]
45.0%
49.0%
Trump
2019-10-13
2019-11-04
2019-10-18 12:00
NYT/Sienna RV [2]
46.0%
47.0%
Trump
2019-10-13
2019-11-04
2019-09-11 00:00
Bendixen Amandi
37.0%
45.0%
Trump
2019-09-09
2019-09-18
2019-08-14 00:00
OHPI
34.0%
44.0%
Trump
2019-08-13
2019-08-22
2019-05-02 00:00
OHPI
37.0%
46.0%
Trump
2019-05-01
2019-05-07
2019-02-13 00:00
OHPI
37.0%
49.0%
Trump
2019-02-12
2019-02-19
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
45.1%
48.7%
REP
2016-11-08
2016-11-08
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
44.6%
53.7%
REP
2012-11-06
2012-11-06
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
45.1%
53.6%
REP
2008-11-04
2008-11-04
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
44.4%
54.9%
REP
2004-11-02
2004-11-02
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
44.7%
51.0%
REP
2000-11-07
2000-11-07
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
46.5%
44.3%
DEM
1996-11-06
1996-11-06
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
36.5%
38.5%
REP
1992-11-03
1992-11-03
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
38.7%
60.0%
REP
1988-11-08
1988-11-08
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
32.5%
66.4%
REP
1984-11-06
1984-11-06
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
28.2%
60.6%
REP
1980-11-04
1980-11-04
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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