2020 Electoral College
Sanders vs Trump - Pennsylvania [20 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-03-21 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-03-27 18:24 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Sanders vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-03-21 12:00
Baldwin Wallace w/Probably [2]
42.1%
47.6%
Trump by 5.5%
2020-03-17 2020-03-25
2020-03-26 2020-03-26 17:06
2020-03-21 12:00
Baldwin Wallace Definitely [2]
29.2%
38.6%
Trump by 9.4%
2020-03-17 2020-03-25
2020-03-26 2020-03-26 17:05
2020-03-20 12:00
Restoration PAC
42.7%
48.7%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-03-19 2020-03-21
2020-03-27 2020-03-27 18:24
2020-03-07 12:00
YouGov
43.0%
41.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2020-03-06 2020-03-08
2020-03-09 2020-03-09 19:38
2020-03-06 12:00
Firehouse
42.0%
46.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2020-03-05 2020-03-07
2020-03-08 2020-03-09 15:19
2020-02-16 12:00
Muhlenberg
49.0%
46.0%
Sanders by 3.0%
2020-02-12 2020-02-20
2020-02-27 2020-02-27 20:51
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-02-16 00:00
YouGov
47.0%
45.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2020-02-11 2020-02-20
2020-02-23 2020-02-23 16:07
2020-02-15 12:00
Quinnipiac
48.0%
44.0%
Sanders by 4.0%
2020-02-12 2020-02-18
2020-02-20 2020-02-20 18:53
2020-02-12 12:00
Expedition
45.0%
43.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2020-02-06 2020-02-18
2020-02-24 2020-03-07 16:04
2019-12-04 12:00
Firehouse
38.0%
48.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-05
2019-12-08 2019-12-09 20:22
2019-11-07 00:00
Muhlenberg
50.0%
45.0%
Sanders by 5.0%
2019-11-04 2019-11-09
2019-11-14 2019-11-14 18:43
2019-11-03 12:00
Civiqs
47.0%
44.0%
Sanders by 3.0%
2019-11-03 2019-11-03
2019-11-05 2019-11-06 01:46
2019-10-19 12:00
NYT/Sienna LV [2]
44.0%
45.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-25
2019-11-04 2019-11-04 20:22
2019-10-19 12:00
NYT/Sienna RV [2]
45.0%
44.0%
Sanders by 1.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-25
2019-11-04 2019-11-04 20:21
2019-09-08 12:00
Firehouse
44.0%
42.0%
Sanders by 2.0%
2019-09-07 2019-09-09
2019-09-12 2019-09-13 06:13
2019-06-12 12:00
Firehouse
41.0%
44.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2019-06-11 2019-06-13
2019-06-16 2019-06-19 21:56
2019-05-12 00:00
Quinnipiac
50.0%
43.0%
Sanders by 7.0%
2019-05-09 2019-05-14
2019-05-15 2019-05-15 18:03
2019-04-16 12:00
Tulchin Final [2]
51.0%
42.0%
Sanders by 9.0%
2019-04-14 2019-04-18
2019-04-22 2019-04-23 06:46
2019-04-16 12:00
Tulchin Initial [2]
51.0%
43.0%
Sanders by 8.0%
2019-04-14 2019-04-18
2019-04-22 2019-04-23 06:41
2019-03-27 12:00
Emerson
54.6%
45.4%
Sanders by 9.2%
2019-03-26 2019-03-28
2019-03-28 2019-03-29 04:24
2019-03-20 12:00
Firehouse
44.0%
44.0%
TIED
2019-03-19 2019-03-21
2019-03-23 2019-03-27 03:21
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.5%
48.2%
REP by 0.7%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:57
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.0%
46.6%
DEM by 5.4%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:08
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
54.5%
44.2%
DEM by 10.3%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:39
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
50.9%
48.4%
DEM by 2.5%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:04
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
50.6%
46.4%
DEM by 4.2%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:47
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
49.2%
40.0%
DEM by 9.2%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 19:43
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
45.2%
36.1%
DEM by 9.0%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:41
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
48.4%
50.7%
REP by 2.3%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:47
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
46.0%
53.3%
REP by 7.4%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:55
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
42.5%
49.6%
REP by 7.1%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:10
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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