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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs DeSantis - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-01-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-14 19:37 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Summary View

Probabilistic View (Indep States)

Median:
DeSantis by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 34 ----- DeSantis by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 94 ---------- DeSantis by 88
Odds:
Biden: 36.5% — Tie: 1.5% — DeSantis: 62.0%

Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)

Median:
DeSantis by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 136 ----- DeSantis by 114
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 216 ---------- DeSantis by 144
Odds:
Biden: 43.0% — Tie: 0.0% — DeSantis: 57.0%

Categorization View

BidenDeSantisMargin
DeSantis BestBiden/DeSantis TIE
ExpectedBiden/DeSantis TIE
Biden BestBiden/DeSantis TIE

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Biden

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((84.5%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((31.7%)))))

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((30.9%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV| (((((27.0%)))))

California |54 EV|   (((26.0%)))  

Maryland |10 EV|   (((24.2%)))  

New York |28 EV| (((((23.8%)))))

Rhode Island | 4 EV|  ((((20.7%)))) 

Illinois |19 EV|  ((((18.8%)))) 

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((18.8%)))))

Connecticut | 7 EV| (((((16.8%)))))

Delaware | 3 EV| (((((16.3%)))))

Washington |12 EV|  ((((15.8%)))) 

New Jersey |14 EV| (((((14.0%)))))

Oregon | 8 EV| (((((11.9%)))))

Maine (All) | 2 EV| (((((10.7%)))))

Strong Biden

New Hampshire | 4 EV|       9.6%     

Colorado |10 EV|   ((( 8.0%)))  

New Mexico | 5 EV|   ((( 7.4%)))  

Minnesota |10 EV|  (((( 5.7%)))) 

Weak Biden

Michigan |15 EV|       4.3%     

Pennsylvania |19 EV|       2.2%     

Virginia |13 EV|       1.6%     

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 1.6%)))))

•  Georgia |16 EV|       0.6%     

Weak DeSantis

Wisconsin |10 EV|     ( 0.4%)    

Arizona |11 EV|       1.7%     

Texas |40 EV|       2.1%     

Nevada | 6 EV|       2.9%     

North Carolina |16 EV|     ( 3.7%)    

Ohio |17 EV|       4.4%     

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 4.7%)))))

Strong DeSantis

Florida |30 EV|       5.9%     

Iowa | 6 EV|    (( 6.9%))   

South Carolina | 9 EV|  (((( 9.0%)))) 

Solid DeSantis

Missouri |10 EV| (((((10.1%)))))

Indiana |11 EV| (((((13.0%)))))

Montana | 4 EV|   (((13.3%)))  

Mississippi | 6 EV|  ((((13.6%)))) 

Kansas | 6 EV|  ((((15.8%)))) 

Louisiana | 8 EV|  ((((16.5%)))) 

Alaska | 3 EV| (((((17.2%)))))

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((17.9%)))))

Tennessee |11 EV|   (((18.7%)))  

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((20.8%)))))

Arkansas | 6 EV|  ((((22.6%)))) 

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((22.8%)))))

Kentucky | 8 EV| (((((22.9%)))))

Alabama | 9 EV| (((((24.5%)))))

North Dakota | 3 EV| (((((24.9%)))))

West Virginia | 4 EV| (((((26.7%)))))

Oklahoma | 7 EV|  ((((30.9%)))) 

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((31.6%)))))

Utah | 6 EV| (((((32.1%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| (((((40.4%)))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((48.0%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Maine (CD2), Wisconsin, Nebraska (CD2), Minnesota, Missouri,
Maine (All), South Carolina, Oregon, Georgia, New Mexico

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 6.7 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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