2024 Electoral College

Biden vs DeSantis - Florida [30 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 02:12 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs DeSantis National Summary

 

2024 Florida [30 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden DeSantis
 

 

2024 Florida [30 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden DeSantis
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden DeSantis
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>DeSantisMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

34.0%

28.0%

38.0%

DeSantis
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 02:12

2023-11-14 12:00

Cygnal Total [2]

43.2%

10.7%

46.1%

DeSantis
by 2.9%

2023-11-13
2023-11-15

2023-11-20
2023-11-21 17:01

2023-11-14 12:00

Cygnal Definitely [2]

36.0%

27.3%

36.7%

DeSantis
by 0.7%

2023-11-13
2023-11-15

2023-11-20
2023-11-21 16:58

2023-11-04 00:00

Mainstreet

38.5%

15.0%

46.5%

DeSantis
by 8.0%

2023-10-27
2023-11-11

2023-11-16
2023-11-17 02:46

2023-06-29 12:00

Mainstreet

36.0%

15.0%

49.0%

DeSantis
by 13.0%

2023-06-27
2023-07-01

2023-07-10
2023-07-11 00:53

2023-03-14 12:00

Emerson

43.3%

10.5%

46.2%

DeSantis
by 2.9%

2023-03-13
2023-03-15

2023-03-17
2023-03-25 07:01

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>DeSantisMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2023-03-02 12:00

UNF

42.0%

7.0%

51.0%

DeSantis
by 9.0%

2023-02-25
2023-03-07

2023-03-09
2023-03-25 03:55

2023-02-15 00:00

Cherry

38.0%

13.0%

49.0%

DeSantis
by 11.0%

2023-02-10
2023-02-19

2023-02-23
2023-03-25 01:01

2022-11-17 00:00

Victory w/Lean [2]

47.4%

0.0%

52.6%

DeSantis
by 5.2%

2022-11-16
2022-11-17

2022-11-21
2023-03-24 05:10

2022-11-17 00:00

Victory [2]

46.1%

3.7%

50.2%

DeSantis
by 4.1%

2022-11-16
2022-11-17

2022-11-21
2023-03-24 05:07

2022-10-14 12:00

FAU

41.8%

10.1%

48.1%

DeSantis
by 6.3%

2022-10-12
2022-10-16

2022-10-21
2023-03-23 05:00

2022-09-17 00:00

Suffolk

43.6%

4.6%

51.8%

DeSantis
by 8.2%

2022-09-15
2022-09-18

2022-09-21
2023-03-23 01:42

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

32.0%

26.0%

42.0%

DeSantis
by 10.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 03:51

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

42.0%

7.0%

51.0%

DeSantis
by 9.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 02:16

2022-01-28 00:00

Suffolk

40.0%

13.0%

47.0%

DeSantis
by 7.0%

2022-01-26
2022-01-29

2022-02-01
2023-03-20 14:06

2021-09-17 12:00

Victory

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2021-09-16
2021-09-18

2021-10-12
2023-03-20 09:14

2021-09-12 00:00

Listener

55.2%

0.0%

44.8%

Biden
by 10.4%

2021-09-11
2021-09-12

2021-09-13
2023-03-20 09:00

2021-08-07 12:00

Susquehanna

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2021-08-04
2021-08-10

2021-08-23
2023-03-20 07:45

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

47.9%

0.9%

51.2%

REP
by 3.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 02:35

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.8%

3.2%

49.0%

REP
by 1.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:21

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.0%

0.9%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.0%

0.8%

48.2%

DEM
by 2.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:48

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.1%

0.8%

52.1%

REP
by 5.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:26

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

48.8%

2.3%

48.9%

REP
by 0.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:52

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

48.0%

9.7%

42.3%

DEM
by 5.7%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:31

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.0%

20.1%

40.9%

REP
by 1.9%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:16

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.5%

0.6%

60.9%

REP
by 22.4%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 05:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

34.7%

0.0%

65.3%

REP
by 30.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:24

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.5%

6.0%

55.5%

REP
by 17.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:24

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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