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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs DeSantis - Nebraska (CD3) [1 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-03 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-03-16 15:24 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs DeSantis National Summary

 

2024 Nebraska (CD3) [1 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden DeSantis
 

 

2024 Nebraska (CD3) [1 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden DeSantis
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden DeSantis
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>DeSantisMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

22.4%

2.0%

75.6%

REP
by 53.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 15:24

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

19.7%

6.4%

73.9%

REP
by 54.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:43

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

27.8%

1.9%

70.2%

REP
by 42.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:45

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

29.6%

1.7%

68.6%

REP
by 39.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:24

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

23.7%

1.4%

74.9%

REP
by 51.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:48

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>DeSantisMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

24.9%

3.7%

71.4%

REP
by 46.4%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:22

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

28.7%

12.5%

58.8%

REP
by 30.1%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 15:59

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

23.4%

27.1%

49.5%

REP
by 26.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:15

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988(Est)

34.6%

0.7%

64.7%

REP
by 30.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:08

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984(Est)

23.4%

0.7%

76.0%

REP
by 52.6%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 04:14

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

20.5%

6.7%

72.8%

REP
by 52.3%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:42

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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