2020 Electoral College

Buttigieg vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-27 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-06-24 06:45 UTC

Actual EC Count: Biden 306 to Trump 232 - Biden by 74

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Summary View

	Buttigieg	Margin
Probabilistic View (Indep States)
Median:	Buttigieg/Trump TIE
1σ (68.27%) range:	Buttigieg by 50 ----- Trump by 42
2σ (95.45%) range:	Buttigieg by 100 ---------- Trump by 78
Odds:	Buttigieg: 47.7% — Tie: 3.9% — Trump: 48.3%
Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)
Median:	Buttigieg/Trump TIE
1σ (68.27%) range:	Buttigieg by 144 ----- Trump by 112
2σ (95.45%) range:	Buttigieg by 210 ---------- Trump by 158
Odds:	Buttigieg: 33.6% — Tie: 18.6% — Trump: 47.9%
Categorization View
Trump Best		Buttigieg/Trump TIE
Expected		Buttigieg/Trump TIE
Buttigieg Best		Buttigieg/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Buttigieg is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Buttigieg

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((82.4%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((29.5%)))))

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((25.8%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV| (((((25.7%)))))

Rhode Island | 4 EV| (((((24.1%)))))

California |55 EV| 23.2%

New York |29 EV| ((((23.0%))))

Maryland |10 EV| ((((22.4%))))

Illinois |20 EV| (((((16.3%)))))

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Connecticut | 7 EV| (((15.7%)))

Delaware | 3 EV| ((((13.5%))))

Washington |12 EV| ((((13.4%))))

New Jersey |14 EV| ((((13.3%))))

Strong Buttigieg

Maine (All) | 2 EV| ((( 9.3%)))

Oregon | 7 EV| ((((( 8.8%)))))

New Mexico | 5 EV| (((( 8.6%))))

Colorado | 9 EV| ((( 6.3%)))

New Hampshire | 4 EV| 6.1%

Minnesota |10 EV| ((((( 5.1%)))))

Weak Buttigieg

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 3.4%)))))

Virginia |13 EV| (( 3.4%))

Michigan |16 EV| 3.4%

Nevada | 6 EV| 0.9%

Pennsylvania |20 EV| 0.6%

Weak Trump

• Wisconsin |10 EV| 1.0%

North Carolina |15 EV| 1.9%

Florida |29 EV| 2.0%

Ohio |18 EV| (( 2.1%))

Iowa | 6 EV| ( 3.2%)

Arizona |11 EV| 3.8%

Georgia |16 EV| 4.8%

Strong Trump

Texas |38 EV| 5.6%

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 9.7%)))))

Solid Trump

Missouri |10 EV| (((10.3%)))

South Carolina | 9 EV| (((12.5%)))

Indiana |11 EV| (((((12.9%)))))

Montana | 3 EV| ((((14.7%))))

Louisiana | 8 EV| (((((15.5%)))))

Mississippi | 6 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Alaska | 3 EV| ((((18.0%))))

Tennessee |11 EV| ((((18.5%))))

Kansas | 6 EV| ((((18.7%))))

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((19.5%)))))

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((20.1%)))))

West Virginia | 5 EV| (((((20.2%)))))

Arkansas | 6 EV| ((((20.5%))))

North Dakota | 3 EV| ((((23.4%))))

Alabama | 9 EV| ((((23.6%))))

Kentucky | 8 EV| ((((24.1%))))

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((24.8%)))))

Utah | 6 EV| (((27.5%)))

Oklahoma | 7 EV| ((((31.7%))))

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((33.4%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| (((((39.7%)))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((46.6%)))))

Ten most needed polls:
Pennsylvania, Maine (CD2), Nevada, Ohio, Minnesota,
Wisconsin, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina, Colorado

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 10.1 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

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