2020 Electoral College

Buttigieg vs Trump - Missouri [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-08 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-02-20 03:23 UTC

Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Buttigieg vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Buttigieg Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Buttigieg Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterButtigiegTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

38.1%

56.8%

REP
by 18.6%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:23

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.4%

53.8%

REP
by 9.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:40

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

49.3%

49.4%

REP
by 0.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:13

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

46.1%

53.3%

REP
by 7.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:27

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.1%

50.4%

REP
by 3.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:57

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterButtigiegTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

47.5%

41.2%

DEM
by 6.3%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:40

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

44.1%

33.9%

DEM
by 10.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:32

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.9%

51.8%

REP
by 4.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 12:34

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.0%

60.0%

REP
by 20.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:50

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

44.4%

51.2%

REP
by 6.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:03

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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