2020 Electoral College

Buttigieg vs Trump - Michigan [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-16 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-03-07 15:55 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Buttigieg vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Buttigieg Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Buttigieg Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterButtigiegTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-02-16 00:00

YouGov

47.0%

41.0%

Buttigieg
by 6.0%

2020-02-11
2020-02-20

2020-02-23
2020-02-23 15:46

2020-02-15 12:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

44.0%

Buttigieg
by 1.0%

2020-02-12
2020-02-18

2020-02-20
2020-02-20 19:43

2020-02-12 12:00

Expedition

44.0%

40.0%

Buttigieg
by 4.0%

2020-02-06
2020-02-18

2020-02-24
2020-03-07 15:55

2020-01-11 00:00

EPIC-MRA

47.0%

43.0%

Buttigieg
by 4.0%

2020-01-09
2020-01-12

2020-01-15
2020-01-15 15:53

2020-01-05 12:00

Glengariff

45.0%

43.2%

Buttigieg
by 1.8%

2020-01-03
2020-01-07

2020-01-08
2020-01-09 06:20

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterButtigiegTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-12-04 12:00

Firehouse

37.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2019-12-03
2019-12-05

2019-12-08
2019-12-09 20:08

2019-07-16 00:00

Climate Nexus

40.0%

37.0%

Buttigieg
by 3.0%

2019-07-14
2019-07-17

2019-07-29
2019-07-29 15:10

2019-06-12 12:00

Firehouse

40.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2019-06-11
2019-06-13

2019-06-16
2019-06-19 21:51

2019-05-29 12:00

Glengariff

46.8%

41.3%

Buttigieg
by 5.5%

2019-05-28
2019-05-30

2019-06-02
2019-06-05 14:30

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.3%

47.5%

REP
by 0.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:01

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

54.2%

44.7%

DEM
by 9.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:37

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.4%

41.0%

DEM
by 16.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:06

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.2%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:21

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

51.3%

46.2%

DEM
by 5.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:53

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.7%

38.5%

DEM
by 13.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:35

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.8%

36.4%

DEM
by 7.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:25

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

45.7%

53.6%

REP
by 7.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.2%

59.2%

REP
by 19.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:42

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

49.0%

REP
by 6.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:58

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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