2020 Electoral College
Buttigieg vs Trump - Texas [38 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-24 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-03-01 17:07 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Buttigieg vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Buttigieg Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-02-24 12:00
CNN
47.0%
48.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2020-02-22 2020-02-26
2020-02-28 2020-02-29 00:25
2020-02-24 00:00
Univision w/Lean [2]
40.0%
46.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-02-21 2020-02-26
2020-02-28 2020-02-28 23:55
2020-02-24 00:00
Univision wo/Lean [2]
32.0%
40.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-02-21 2020-02-26
2020-02-28 2020-02-28 23:53
2020-02-22 00:00
UT Tyler
41.0%
45.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2020-02-17 2020-02-26
2020-03-01 2020-03-01 17:07
2020-02-05 00:00
UT/TT
42.0%
47.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2020-01-31 2020-02-09
2020-02-14 2020-02-14 06:24
2020-01-26 00:00
UT Tyler LV [2]
37.0%
47.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-01-21 2020-01-30
2020-02-02 2020-02-03 00:48
2020-01-26 00:00
UT Tyler RV [2]
34.0%
46.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-01-21 2020-01-30
2020-02-02 2020-02-03 00:32
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Buttigieg Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-01-19 00:00
Data for Progress wo/DK [2]
36.0%
56.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-01-16 2020-01-21
2020-01-29 2020-01-29 21:58
2020-01-19 00:00
Data for Progress w/DK [2]
35.0%
54.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-01-16 2020-01-21
2020-01-29 2020-01-29 21:56
2020-01-15 00:00
Texas Lyceum
43.0%
51.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-01-10 2020-01-19
2020-01-29 2020-01-29 17:46
2019-12-06 12:00
CNN
43.0%
50.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2019-12-04 2019-12-08
2019-12-11 2019-12-11 20:24
2019-11-10 00:00
UT Tyler
32.7%
45.3%
Trump by 12.6%
2019-11-05 2019-11-14
2019-11-18 2019-11-18 18:03
2019-09-14 12:00
UT Tyler
30.4%
39.3%
Trump by 8.9%
2019-09-13 2019-09-15
2019-09-19 2019-09-19 17:44
2019-08-23 00:00
Climate Nexus
36.0%
44.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2019-08-20 2019-08-25
2019-09-11 2019-09-11 16:50
2019-08-03 00:00
UT Tyler
31.2%
37.5%
Trump by 6.3%
2019-08-01 2019-08-04
2019-08-06 2019-08-06 18:00
2019-08-02 12:00
Emerson
48.0%
52.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2019-08-01 2019-08-03
2019-08-06 2019-08-06 16:47
2019-07-26 00:00
UT Tyler
33.0%
38.6%
Trump by 5.6%
2019-07-24 2019-07-27
2019-07-30 2019-07-30 16:21
2019-06-01 12:00
Quinnipiac
44.0%
46.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2019-05-29 2019-06-04
2019-06-05 2019-06-05 18:12
2019-04-27 00:00
Emerson
46.3%
53.7%
Trump by 7.4%
2019-04-25 2019-04-28
2019-04-28 2019-04-29 15:24
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
43.2%
52.2%
REP by 9.0%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:11
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
41.4%
57.2%
REP by 15.8%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:13
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
43.7%
55.5%
REP by 11.8%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-06 01:52
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
38.2%
61.1%
REP by 22.9%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:11
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
38.0%
59.3%
REP by 21.3%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:05
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
43.8%
48.8%
REP by 4.9%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:44
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
37.1%
40.6%
REP by 3.5%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:58
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
43.4%
56.0%
REP by 12.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:01
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
36.1%
63.6%
REP by 27.5%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:07
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
41.4%
55.3%
REP by 13.9%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:20
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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