2020 Electoral College

Warren vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-03-05 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-06-24 06:41 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Summary View

Probabilistic View (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 20
1σ (68.27%) range:
Warren by 28 ----- Trump by 66
2σ (95.45%) range:
Warren by 82 ---------- Trump by 104
Odds:
Warren: 31.5% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 66.7%

Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)

Median:
Trump by 80
1σ (68.27%) range:
Warren by 136 ----- Trump by 120
2σ (95.45%) range:
Warren by 198 ---------- Trump by 158
Odds:
Warren: 40.2% — Tie: 0.9% — Trump: 58.9%

Categorization View

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump BestWarren/Trump TIE
ExpectedWarren/Trump TIE
Warren BestWarren/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Warren is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Warren

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((82.4%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((29.5%)))))

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((25.8%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV|  ((((25.5%)))) 

Rhode Island | 4 EV| (((((24.1%)))))

California |55 EV|      23.5%     

Maryland |10 EV|  ((((22.2%)))) 

New York |29 EV|  ((((22.0%)))) 

Washington |12 EV|    ((16.5%))   

Illinois |20 EV| (((((16.3%)))))

Connecticut | 7 EV|   (((16.0%)))  

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

New Jersey |14 EV|  ((((13.5%)))) 

Delaware | 3 EV|  ((((13.1%)))) 

Strong Warren

Maine (All) | 2 EV|   ((( 9.9%)))  

Oregon | 7 EV| ((((( 8.8%)))))

New Mexico | 5 EV|  (((( 8.3%)))) 

Minnesota |10 EV|  (((( 6.8%)))) 

Colorado | 9 EV|   ((( 5.0%)))  

Weak Warren

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 3.4%)))))

Nevada | 6 EV|       1.6%     

Virginia |13 EV|       1.4%     

Pennsylvania |20 EV|       0.2%     

Michigan |16 EV|       0.1%     

Weak Trump

New Hampshire | 4 EV|       0.4%     

•  Ohio |18 EV|       0.5%     

Wisconsin |10 EV|       2.0%     

Florida |29 EV|       2.3%     

Arizona |11 EV|       2.5%     

North Carolina |15 EV|       3.1%     

Georgia |16 EV|       4.0%     

Strong Trump

Texas |38 EV|       5.6%     

Iowa | 6 EV|       7.3%     

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 9.7%)))))

Solid Trump

South Carolina | 9 EV|    ((12.2%))   

Indiana |11 EV| (((((12.9%)))))

Montana | 3 EV|   (((13.7%)))  

Missouri |10 EV|     (14.6%)    

Louisiana | 8 EV| (((((15.5%)))))

Mississippi | 6 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Alaska | 3 EV|  ((((18.4%)))) 

Tennessee |11 EV|  ((((19.3%)))) 

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((19.5%)))))

Kansas | 6 EV|   (((19.9%)))  

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((20.1%)))))

West Virginia | 5 EV| (((((20.2%)))))

Arkansas | 6 EV|  ((((20.8%)))) 

Utah | 6 EV|    ((22.6%))   

North Dakota | 3 EV|  ((((23.9%)))) 

Kentucky | 8 EV|  ((((24.1%)))) 

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((24.8%)))))

Alabama | 9 EV|  ((((24.8%)))) 

Oklahoma | 7 EV| (((((30.9%)))))

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((33.4%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| (((((39.7%)))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((46.6%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Michigan, Maine (CD2), Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire,
Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, Nebraska (CD2), New Mexico

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 2.9 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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