2020 Electoral College
Warren vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-21 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-06-24 06:41 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Warren vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Warren Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-02-21 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
49.0%
47.0%
Warren by 2.0%
2020-02-19 2020-02-23
2020-02-27 2020-06-24 06:41
2020-02-21 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
44.0%
47.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2020-02-19 2020-02-23
2020-02-27 2020-02-27 21:16
2020-02-16 00:00
YouGov
46.0%
44.0%
Warren by 2.0%
2020-02-11 2020-02-20
2020-02-23 2020-02-23 16:28
2020-02-15 12:00
Quinnipiac
41.0%
51.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-02-12 2020-02-18
2020-02-20 2020-02-20 19:37
2020-01-10 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
45.0%
49.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2020-01-08 2020-01-12
2020-01-15 2020-06-24 06:32
2020-01-10 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
45.0%
48.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2020-01-08 2020-01-12
2020-01-15 2020-01-15 19:17
2020-01-07 00:00
Fox News
44.0%
42.0%
Warren by 2.0%
2020-01-05 2020-01-08
2020-01-09 2020-01-10 00:16
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Warren Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2019-12-06 00:00
Marquette LV [2]
46.0%
48.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-08
2019-12-12 2020-06-24 06:22
2019-12-06 00:00
Marquette RV [2]
44.0%
45.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-08
2019-12-12 2019-12-13 07:08
2019-12-04 12:00
Firehouse
37.0%
50.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2019-12-03 2019-12-05
2019-12-08 2019-12-09 20:36
2019-11-15 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
43.0%
50.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2019-11-13 2019-11-17
2019-11-20 2020-06-24 06:09
2019-11-15 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
43.0%
48.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2019-11-13 2019-11-17
2019-11-20 2019-11-20 19:34
2019-11-03 12:00
Civiqs
49.0%
44.0%
Warren by 5.0%
2019-11-03 2019-11-03
2019-11-05 2019-11-06 01:50
2019-10-20 00:00
NYT/Sienna LV [2]
45.0%
47.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-26
2019-11-04 2019-11-04 20:54
2019-10-20 00:00
NYT/Sienna RV [2]
46.0%
46.0%
TIED
2019-10-13 2019-10-26
2019-11-04 2019-11-04 20:53
2019-10-15 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
50.0%
45.0%
Warren by 5.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-17
2019-10-23 2020-06-24 06:00
2019-10-15 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
47.0%
46.0%
Warren by 1.0%
2019-10-13 2019-10-17
2019-10-23 2019-10-24 07:25
2019-10-01 00:00
Fox News
45.0%
41.0%
Warren by 4.0%
2019-09-29 2019-10-02
2019-10-06 2019-10-06 15:55
2019-09-08 12:00
Firehouse
43.0%
42.0%
Warren by 1.0%
2019-09-07 2019-09-09
2019-09-12 2019-09-13 05:43
2019-08-27 12:00
Marquette LV [2]
48.0%
46.0%
Warren by 2.0%
2019-08-25 2019-08-29
2019-09-04 2020-06-24 05:46
2019-08-27 12:00
Marquette RV [2]
45.0%
45.0%
TIED
2019-08-25 2019-08-29
2019-09-04 2019-09-04 22:08
2019-06-12 12:00
Firehouse
41.0%
41.0%
TIED
2019-06-11 2019-06-13
2019-06-16 2019-06-19 21:34
2019-04-17 00:00
Zogby
47.0%
41.0%
Warren by 6.0%
2019-04-15 2019-04-18
2019-04-24 2019-04-25 04:38
2019-03-16 12:00
Emerson
52.1%
47.9%
Warren by 4.2%
2019-03-15 2019-03-17
2019-03-17 2019-03-18 06:10
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
46.5%
47.2%
REP by 0.8%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:34
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.8%
45.9%
DEM by 6.9%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:19
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
56.2%
42.3%
DEM by 13.9%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:22
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
49.7%
49.3%
DEM by 0.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:19
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
47.8%
47.6%
DEM by 0.2%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:16
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
48.8%
38.5%
DEM by 10.3%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:53
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
41.1%
36.8%
DEM by 4.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:09
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
51.4%
47.8%
DEM by 3.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:13
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
45.0%
54.2%
REP by 9.2%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:46
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
43.2%
47.9%
REP by 4.7%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:35
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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