2020 Electoral College

Warren vs Trump - Pennsylvania [20 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-02-27 20:53 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Warren vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Warren Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Warren Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterWarrenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-02-16 12:00

Muhlenberg

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-02-12
2020-02-20

2020-02-27
2020-02-27 20:53

2020-02-16 00:00

YouGov

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2020-02-11
2020-02-20

2020-02-23
2020-02-23 16:09

2020-02-15 12:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

44.0%

Warren
by 3.0%

2020-02-12
2020-02-18

2020-02-20
2020-02-20 19:29

2019-12-04 12:00

Firehouse

40.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2019-12-03
2019-12-05

2019-12-08
2019-12-09 20:18

2019-11-07 00:00

Muhlenberg

50.0%

45.0%

Warren
by 5.0%

2019-11-04
2019-11-09

2019-11-14
2019-11-14 18:49

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterWarrenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

48.0%

43.0%

Warren
by 5.0%

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 01:41

2019-10-19 12:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-25

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:18

2019-10-19 12:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-25

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:16

2019-09-08 12:00

Firehouse

43.0%

41.0%

Warren
by 2.0%

2019-09-07
2019-09-09

2019-09-12
2019-09-13 06:15

2019-06-12 12:00

Firehouse

34.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2019-06-11
2019-06-13

2019-06-16
2019-06-19 21:58

2019-05-12 00:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

44.0%

Warren
by 3.0%

2019-05-09
2019-05-14

2019-05-15
2019-05-15 18:04

2019-03-27 12:00

Emerson

52.4%

47.6%

Warren
by 4.8%

2019-03-26
2019-03-28

2019-03-28
2019-03-29 04:12

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.5%

48.2%

REP
by 0.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

46.6%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.5%

44.2%

DEM
by 10.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.9%

48.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:04

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

46.4%

DEM
by 4.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:47

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

40.0%

DEM
by 9.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 19:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.2%

36.1%

DEM
by 9.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:41

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.4%

50.7%

REP
by 2.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:47

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

46.0%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:55

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

49.6%

REP
by 7.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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