2020 Electoral College - Warren vs Trump - National Summary

2020 Electoral College

Warren vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-03-05 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-06-24 06:41 UTC

Actual EC Count: Biden 306 to Trump 232 - Biden by 74

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Summary View

	Warren	Margin
Probabilistic View (Indep States)
Median:	Trump by 20
1σ (68.27%) range:	Warren by 28 ----- Trump by 66
2σ (95.45%) range:	Warren by 82 ---------- Trump by 104
Odds:	Warren: 31.6% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 66.7%
Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)
Median:	Trump by 80
1σ (68.27%) range:	Warren by 136 ----- Trump by 120
2σ (95.45%) range:	Warren by 198 ---------- Trump by 158
Odds:	Warren: 40.2% — Tie: 0.9% — Trump: 58.9%
Categorization View
Trump Best		Warren/Trump TIE
Expected		Warren/Trump TIE
Warren Best		Warren/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Warren is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Spectrum View

Solid Warren
State	EV	Ahead by
District of Columbia	3	(((((82.4%)))))
Hawaii	4	(((((29.5%)))))
Vermont	3	(((((25.8%)))))
Massachusetts	11	((((25.5%))))
Rhode Island	4	(((((24.1%)))))
California	55	23.5%
Maryland	10	((((22.2%))))
New York	29	((((22.0%))))
Washington	12	((16.5%))
Illinois	20	(((((16.3%)))))
Connecticut	7	(((16.0%)))
Maine (CD1)	1	(((((15.8%)))))
New Jersey	14	((((13.5%))))
Delaware	3	((((13.1%))))

Strong Warren
State	EV	Ahead by
Maine (All)	2	(((9.9%)))
Oregon	7	(((((8.8%)))))
New Mexico	5	((((8.3%))))
Minnesota	10	((((6.8%))))
Colorado	9	(((5.0%)))

Weak Warren
State	EV	Ahead by
Maine (CD2)	1	(((((3.4%)))))
Nevada	6	1.6%
Virginia	13	1.4%
Pennsylvania	20	0.2%
Michigan	16	0.1%

Weak Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
New Hampshire	4	0.4%
• Ohio	18	0.5%
Wisconsin	10	2.0%
Florida	29	2.3%
Arizona	11	2.5%
North Carolina	15	3.1%
Georgia	16	4.0%

Strong Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
Texas	38	5.6%
Iowa	6	7.3%
Nebraska (CD2)	1	(((((9.7%)))))

Solid Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
South Carolina	9	((12.2%))
Indiana	11	(((((12.9%)))))
Montana	3	(((13.7%)))
Missouri	10	(14.6%)
Louisiana	8	(((((15.5%)))))
Mississippi	6	(((((15.8%)))))
Alaska	3	((((18.4%))))
Tennessee	11	((((19.3%))))
Nebraska (CD1)	1	(((((19.5%)))))
Kansas	6	(((19.9%)))
South Dakota	3	(((((20.1%)))))
West Virginia	5	(((((20.2%)))))
Arkansas	6	((((20.8%))))
Utah	6	((22.6%))
North Dakota	3	((((23.9%))))
Kentucky	8	((((24.1%))))
Nebraska (All)	2	(((((24.8%)))))
Alabama	9	((((24.8%))))
Oklahoma	7	(((((30.9%)))))
Idaho	4	(((((33.4%)))))
Wyoming	3	(((((39.7%)))))
Nebraska (CD3)	1	(((((46.6%)))))

Ten most needed polls:
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine (CD2),
Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, Oregon, Nevada

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 5.5 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

Page cached at 2023-05-19 08:47:18 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.627 seconds

Page displayed at 2023-05-28 16:42:18 UTC

Page generated in 0.268 seconds