2020 Electoral College

Warren vs Trump - North Carolina [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-28 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-03-03 02:06 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Warren vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Warren Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Warren Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterWarrenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-02-28 00:00

East Carolina University

40.9%

49.3%

Trump
by 8.4%

2020-02-27
2020-02-28

2020-03-01
2020-03-01 18:39

2020-02-17 12:00

Climate Nexus

43.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-02-15
2020-02-19

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 02:06

2020-02-15 00:00

SurveyUSA

44.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-02-13
2020-02-16

2020-02-19
2020-02-19 23:03

2019-11-12 00:00

Fox News

43.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-11-10
2019-11-13

2019-11-14
2019-11-14 23:33

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 02:15

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterWarrenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-10-20 00:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

44.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-26

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:42

2019-10-20 00:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

44.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-26

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:41

2019-10-06 00:00

East Carolina University

47.6%

48.5%

Trump
by 0.9%

2019-10-02
2019-10-09

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 20:39

2019-10-05 12:00

PPP

49.0%

46.0%

Warren
by 3.0%

2019-10-04
2019-10-06

2019-10-09
2019-10-09 20:26

2019-10-03 12:00

Meredith

33.0%

39.1%

Trump
by 6.1%

2019-09-29
2019-10-07

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 18:09

2019-08-03 12:00

SurveyUSA

44.0%

43.0%

Warren
by 1.0%

2019-08-01
2019-08-05

2019-08-06
2019-08-08 16:03

2019-08-03 00:00

Civitas

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2019-08-01
2019-08-04

2019-08-14
2019-08-14 16:42

2019-06-18 00:00

PPP

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-06-17
2019-06-18

2019-06-20
2019-06-20 23:41

2019-06-02 00:00

Emerson

50.3%

49.7%

Warren
by 0.6%

2019-05-31
2019-06-03

2019-06-04
2019-06-04 18:22

2019-01-06 00:00

PPP

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2019-01-04
2019-01-07

2019-01-09
2019-03-04 09:17

2018-01-23 12:00

Meredith

39.6%

47.7%

Trump
by 8.1%

2018-01-21
2018-01-25

2018-01-26
2019-03-04 04:46

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.2%

49.8%

REP
by 3.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:10

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

48.4%

50.4%

REP
by 2.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:03

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

49.7%

49.4%

DEM
by 0.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:36

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

43.6%

56.0%

REP
by 12.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:58

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.2%

56.0%

REP
by 12.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:38

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

44.0%

48.7%

REP
by 4.7%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 17:30

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

42.7%

43.4%

REP
by 0.8%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:35

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

41.7%

58.0%

REP
by 16.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:32

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

37.9%

61.9%

REP
by 24.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.2%

49.3%

REP
by 2.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:01

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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