2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Cruz - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-05-03 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-09-20 06:53 UTC

Earned EC: Trump 306, Clinton 232

Actual EC: Trump 304, Clinton 227, Powell 3, Kasich 1, Paul 1, Sanders 1, Spotted Eagle 1

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

 

Current Summary

ClintonCruzMargin
Cruz Best
Expected
Clinton Best

The 'Expected' scenario represents each candiate winning all the states they are ahead in. 'Best' scenarios represent the candidate winning all of the states they are ahead in, plus all of their opponent's 'weak' states.

 

The 'tipping point' state is the state that puts the winning candidate over the top if the states are sorted by margin.

 

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

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Solid Clinton
StateEVAhead by
District of Columbia

3

((((75.9%))))

Hawaii

4

((((28.0%))))

New York

29

27.2%

Maryland

10

((27.0%))

Massachusetts

11

(((25.9%)))

Vermont

3

((((25.3%))))

California

55

24.5%

Rhode Island

4

((((24.1%))))

Connecticut

7

(20.5%)

New Jersey

14

((17.8%))

Illinois

20

((17.4%))

Maine (CD1)

1

(((((16.9%)))))

Delaware

3

((((15.2%))))

Maine (All)

2

(((14.0%)))

Washington

12

((13.3%))

Oregon

7

(((10.3%)))

Strong Clinton
StateEVAhead by
Maine (CD2)

1

(((((9.8%)))))

New Mexico

5

(((9.3%)))

New Hampshire

4

7.1%

Michigan

16

7.1%

Pennsylvania

20

7.0%

Florida

29

6.5%

Virginia

13

5.4%

Weak Clinton
StateEVAhead by
Ohio

18

4.3%

Nevada

6

((((4.2%))))

Minnesota

10

3.9%

North Carolina

15

1.5%

Wisconsin

10

1.0%

Weak Cruz
StateEVAhead by
Colorado

9

0.2%

Iowa

6

0.6%

Georgia

16

(0.7%)

Kentucky

8

(5.0%)

Strong Cruz
StateEVAhead by
Arizona

11

5.2%

Kansas

6

5.6%

South Carolina

9

(7.4%)

Texas

38

7.5%

Mississippi

6

(7.5%)

Indiana

11

((7.7%))

Louisiana

8

((9.5%))

Missouri

10

((9.6%))

Solid Cruz
StateEVAhead by
Arkansas

6

((11.8%))

Nebraska (CD2)

1

(((((12.1%)))))

Alaska

3

((13.2%))

Tennessee

11

(((14.3%)))

Montana

3

(15.3%)

West Virginia

5

((16.2%))

South Dakota

3

((((16.7%))))

Nebraska (CD1)

1

(((((17.7%)))))

North Dakota

3

((((19.2%))))

Alabama

9

((((20.5%))))

Nebraska (All)

2

((((23.1%))))

Idaho

4

((26.8%))

Oklahoma

7

((((27.1%))))

Utah

6

((34.5%))

Wyoming

3

((((36.2%))))

Nebraska (CD3)

1

(((((41.8%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin,
Maine (CD2), North Carolina, Nebraska (CD2), New Mexico, Oregon

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

 

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 6.3 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

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