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2024 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-08 01:24 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best202336Trump by 134
Expected236302Trump by 66
Biden Best304234Biden by 70
The tipping point state is PA where Trump is ahead by 2.8%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 74
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 46 ----- Trump by 94
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 6 ---------- Trump by 114
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 44 --------------- Trump by 134
Odds:
Biden: 1.5% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 98.2%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenDeSantisMargin
DeSantis Best227311DeSantis by 84
Expected260278DeSantis by 18
Biden Best377161Biden by 216
The tipping point state is WI where DeSantis is ahead by 0.4%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
DeSantis by 22
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 22 ----- DeSantis by 58
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 82 ---------- DeSantis by 86
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 134 --------------- DeSantis by 114
Odds:
Biden: 29.5% — Tie: 1.8% — DeSantis: 68.7%

Biden vs DeSantis Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenHaleyMargin
Haley Best208330Haley by 122
Expected262276Haley by 14
Biden Best373165Biden by 208
The tipping point state is PA where Haley is ahead by 0.1%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Haley by 14
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 36 ----- Haley by 64
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 84 ---------- Haley by 100
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 132 --------------- Haley by 128
Odds:
Biden: 37.2% — Tie: 0.8% — Haley: 61.9%

Biden vs Haley Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best223315Trump by 92
Expected276262Harris by 14
Harris Best362176Harris by 186
The tipping point state is PA where Harris is ahead by 2.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Harris by 4
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 48 ----- Trump by 36
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 92 ---------- Trump by 72
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 130 --------------- Trump by 102
Odds:
Harris: 52.2% — Tie: 2.0% — Trump: 45.8%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenPenceMargin
Pence Best227311Pence by 84
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best373165Biden by 208
The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 16
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 64 ----- Pence by 20
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 110 ---------- Pence by 56
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 154 --------------- Pence by 90
Odds:
Biden: 66.8% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 31.0%

Biden vs Pence Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenYoungkinMargin
Youngkin Best223315Youngkin by 92
Expected263275Youngkin by 12
Biden Best346192Biden by 154
The tipping point state is IA/VA where Youngkin is ahead by 0.7%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Youngkin by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 38 ----- Youngkin by 42
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 80 ---------- Youngkin by 72
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 118 --------------- Youngkin by 104
Odds:
Biden: 39.4% — Tie: 3.5% — Youngkin: 57.1%

Biden vs Youngkin Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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