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2024 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-18 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-21 19:51 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best191347Trump by 156
Expected226312Trump by 86
Biden Best308230Biden by 78
The tipping point state is PA where Trump is ahead by 4.4%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 108
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 82 ----- Trump by 132
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 48 ---------- Trump by 154
3σ (99.73%) range:
Trump by 6 --------------- Trump by 180
Odds:
Biden: 0.1% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 99.9%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenDeSantisMargin
DeSantis Best212326DeSantis by 114
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best377161Biden by 216
The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 0.6%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
DeSantis by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 34 ----- DeSantis by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 94 ---------- DeSantis by 88
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 142 --------------- DeSantis by 114
Odds:
Biden: 35.9% — Tie: 1.5% — DeSantis: 62.6%

Biden vs DeSantis Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenHaleyMargin
Haley Best208330Haley by 122
Expected337201Biden by 136
Biden Best413125Biden by 288
The tipping point state is TX where Biden is ahead by 1.7%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 38
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 102 ----- Haley by 30
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 156 ---------- Haley by 84
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 200 --------------- Haley by 122
Odds:
Biden: 70.6% — Tie: 0.7% — Haley: 28.7%

Biden vs Haley Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best208330Trump by 122
Expected226312Trump by 86
Harris Best340198Harris by 142
The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 2.9%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 84
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 48 ----- Trump by 106
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 4 ---------- Trump by 122
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 40 --------------- Trump by 142
Odds:
Harris: 2.0% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 97.9%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

KennedyTrumpMargin
Trump Best236302Trump by 66
Expected282256Kennedy by 26
Kennedy Best362176Kennedy by 186
The tipping point state is PA where Kennedy is ahead by 3.1%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Kennedy by 8
1σ (68.27%) range:
Kennedy by 44 ----- Trump by 26
2σ (95.45%) range:
Kennedy by 86 ---------- Trump by 56
3σ (99.73%) range:
Kennedy by 126 --------------- Trump by 86
Odds:
Kennedy: 58.0% — Tie: 2.4% — Trump: 39.7%

Kennedy vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenKennedyMargin
Kennedy Best213325Kennedy by 112
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best345193Biden by 152
The tipping point state is WI/NV where Biden is ahead by 2.7%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Kennedy by 8
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 26 ----- Kennedy by 44
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 74 ---------- Kennedy by 78
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 106 --------------- Kennedy by 112
Odds:
Biden: 37.8% — Tie: 2.3% — Kennedy: 59.9%

Biden vs Kennedy Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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