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2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20240718 12:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20240721 19:51 UTC Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 20082020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages. This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election! All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then! 
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Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  191  347  Trump by 156 

Expected  226  312  Trump by 86 

Biden Best  308  230  Biden by 78 

The tipping point state is PA where Trump is ahead by 4.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Trump by 108  1σ (68.27%) range:  Trump by 82  Trump by 132  2σ (95.45%) range:  Trump by 48  Trump by 154  3σ (99.73%) range:  Trump by 6  Trump by 180  Odds:  Biden: 0.1% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 99.9% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  DeSantis  Margin 

DeSantis Best  212  326  DeSantis by 114 

Expected  276  262  Biden by 14 

Biden Best  377  161  Biden by 216 

The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 0.6%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  DeSantis by 18  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 34  DeSantis by 56  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 94  DeSantis by 88  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 142  DeSantis by 114  Odds:  Biden: 35.9% — Tie: 1.5% — DeSantis: 62.6% 
 Biden vs DeSantis Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Haley  Margin 

Haley Best  208  330  Haley by 122 

Expected  337  201  Biden by 136 

Biden Best  413  125  Biden by 288 

The tipping point state is TX where Biden is ahead by 1.7%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Biden by 38  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 102  Haley by 30  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 156  Haley by 84  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 200  Haley by 122  Odds:  Biden: 70.6% — Tie: 0.7% — Haley: 28.7% 
 Biden vs Haley Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  208  330  Trump by 122 

Expected  226  312  Trump by 86 

Harris Best  340  198  Harris by 142 

The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 2.9%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Trump by 84  1σ (68.27%) range:  Trump by 48  Trump by 106  2σ (95.45%) range:  Trump by 4  Trump by 122  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 40  Trump by 142  Odds:  Harris: 2.0% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 97.9% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Kennedy  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  236  302  Trump by 66 

Expected  282  256  Kennedy by 26 

Kennedy Best  362  176  Kennedy by 186 

The tipping point state is PA where Kennedy is ahead by 3.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Kennedy by 8  1σ (68.27%) range:  Kennedy by 44  Trump by 26  2σ (95.45%) range:  Kennedy by 86  Trump by 56  3σ (99.73%) range:  Kennedy by 126  Trump by 86  Odds:  Kennedy: 58.0% — Tie: 2.4% — Trump: 39.7% 
 Kennedy vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Kennedy  Margin 

Kennedy Best  213  325  Kennedy by 112 

Expected  276  262  Biden by 14 

Biden Best  345  193  Biden by 152 

The tipping point state is WI/NV where Biden is ahead by 2.7%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Kennedy by 8  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 26  Kennedy by 44  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 74  Kennedy by 78  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 106  Kennedy by 112  Odds:  Biden: 37.8% — Tie: 2.3% — Kennedy: 59.9% 
 Biden vs Kennedy Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
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