Currently being updated. Automatic reload in seconds.

2024 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-20 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-03-26 15:49 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best202336Trump by 134
Expected225313Trump by 88
Biden Best313225Biden by 88
The tipping point state is MI/AZ where Trump is ahead by 3.6%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 88
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 58 ----- Trump by 108
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 26 ---------- Trump by 134
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 14 --------------- Trump by 154
Odds:
Biden: 0.4% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 99.5%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenDeSantisMargin
DeSantis Best212326DeSantis by 114
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best377161Biden by 216
The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 0.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
DeSantis by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 34 ----- DeSantis by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 94 ---------- DeSantis by 88
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 144 --------------- DeSantis by 114
Odds:
Biden: 36.4% — Tie: 1.5% — DeSantis: 62.1%

Biden vs DeSantis Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenHaleyMargin
Haley Best208330Haley by 122
Expected337201Biden by 136
Biden Best413125Biden by 288
The tipping point state is TX where Biden is ahead by 1.7%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 38
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 102 ----- Haley by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 158 ---------- Haley by 82
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 202 --------------- Haley by 120
Odds:
Biden: 71.4% — Tie: 0.7% — Haley: 27.9%

Biden vs Haley Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best223315Trump by 92
Expected251287Trump by 36
Harris Best373165Harris by 208
The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.7%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 32
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 14 ----- Trump by 64
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 60 ---------- Trump by 92
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 98 --------------- Trump by 122
Odds:
Harris: 25.6% — Tie: 1.0% — Trump: 73.4%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

NewsomTrumpMargin
Trump Best208330Trump by 122
Expected276262Newsom by 14
Newsom Best329209Newsom by 120
The tipping point state is PA where Newsom is ahead by 0.2%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 26
1σ (68.27%) range:
Newsom by 14 ----- Trump by 62
2σ (95.45%) range:
Newsom by 62 ---------- Trump by 92
3σ (99.73%) range:
Newsom by 96 --------------- Trump by 122
Odds:
Newsom: 27.3% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 71.0%

Newsom vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenPenceMargin
Pence Best227311Pence by 84
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best373165Biden by 208
The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 16
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 64 ----- Pence by 20
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 110 ---------- Pence by 56
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 158 --------------- Pence by 90
Odds:
Biden: 66.9% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 30.9%

Biden vs Pence Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

Page cached at 2024-03-28 02:34:18 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.728 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-03-28 18:06:58 UTC

Page generated in 0.008 seconds