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2024 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-05-21 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-05-26 18:27 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best221317Trump by 96
Expected260278Trump by 18
Biden Best350188Biden by 162
The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 0.2%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 26 ----- Trump by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 76 ---------- Trump by 88
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 134 --------------- Trump by 120
Odds:
Biden: 35.0% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 63.7%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenDeSantisMargin
DeSantis Best223315DeSantis by 92
Expected270268Biden by 2
Biden Best360178Biden by 182
The tipping point state is PA/ME-CD2 where Biden is ahead by 1.8%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
DeSantis by 24
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 8 ----- DeSantis by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 56 ---------- DeSantis by 86
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 114 --------------- DeSantis by 114
Odds:
Biden: 26.0% — Tie: 5.2% — DeSantis: 68.8%

Biden vs DeSantis Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best223315Trump by 92
Expected276262Harris by 14
Harris Best346192Harris by 154
The tipping point state is VA where Harris is ahead by 3.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Harris by 8
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 52 ----- Trump by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 92 ---------- Trump by 64
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 120 --------------- Trump by 98
Odds:
Harris: 57.6% — Tie: 2.1% — Trump: 40.3%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenPenceMargin
Pence Best223315Pence by 92
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best373165Biden by 208
The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 14
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 60 ----- Pence by 24
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 106 ---------- Pence by 60
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 148 --------------- Pence by 92
Odds:
Biden: 63.9% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 33.9%

Biden vs Pence Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisDeSantisMargin
DeSantis Best223315DeSantis by 92
Expected276262Harris by 14
Harris Best346192Harris by 154
The tipping point state is VA where Harris is ahead by 3.5%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Harris/DeSantis TIE
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 26 ----- DeSantis by 34
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 74 ---------- DeSantis by 68
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 116 --------------- DeSantis by 100
Odds:
Harris: 47.4% — Tie: 2.7% — DeSantis: 49.9%

Harris vs DeSantis Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenYoungkinMargin
Youngkin Best223315Youngkin by 92
Expected276262Biden by 14
Biden Best346192Biden by 154
The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 2.0%.

Probabilistic Model (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 2
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 46 ----- Youngkin by 34
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 86 ---------- Youngkin by 70
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 120 --------------- Youngkin by 100
Odds:
Biden: 50.7% — Tie: 2.7% — Youngkin: 46.7%

Biden vs Youngkin Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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