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2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-10-17 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 2024-10-21 14:14 UTC Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then! |
Switch to National Summary
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Poll Average Categorization | | Harris | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 226 | 312 | Trump by 86 |
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| Expected | 257 | 281 | Trump by 24 |
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| Harris Best | 326 | 212 | Harris by 114 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Trump is ahead by 0.9%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Trump by 34 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Harris by 4 ----- Trump by 66 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Harris by 46 ---------- Trump by 90 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Harris by 96 --------------- Trump by 112 | | Odds: | Harris: 17.5% — Tie: 0.9% — Trump: 81.6% |
| | Harris vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 191 | 347 | Trump by 156 |
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| Expected | 226 | 312 | Trump by 86 |
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| Biden Best | 267 | 271 | Trump by 4 |
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The tipping point state is NC where Trump is ahead by 5.0%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Trump by 110 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Trump by 86 ----- Trump by 134 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Trump by 54 ---------- Trump by 156 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Trump by 10 --------------- Trump by 182 | | Odds: | Biden: 0.0% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 99.9% |
| | Biden vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | DeSantis | Margin |
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| DeSantis Best | 212 | 326 | DeSantis by 114 |
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| Expected | 276 | 262 | Biden by 14 |
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| Biden Best | 377 | 161 | Biden by 216 |
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The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 0.6%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | DeSantis by 18 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 34 ----- DeSantis by 56 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 94 ---------- DeSantis by 88 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 142 --------------- DeSantis by 114 | | Odds: | Biden: 35.9% — Tie: 1.5% — DeSantis: 62.6% |
| | Biden vs DeSantis Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Haley | Margin |
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| Haley Best | 208 | 330 | Haley by 122 |
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| Expected | 337 | 201 | Biden by 136 |
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| Biden Best | 413 | 125 | Biden by 288 |
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The tipping point state is TX where Biden is ahead by 1.7%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Biden by 38 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 102 ----- Haley by 30 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 156 ---------- Haley by 84 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 200 --------------- Haley by 122 | | Odds: | Biden: 70.7% — Tie: 0.7% — Haley: 28.6% |
| | Biden vs Haley Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Kennedy | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 236 | 302 | Trump by 66 |
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| Expected | 282 | 256 | Kennedy by 26 |
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| Kennedy Best | 362 | 176 | Kennedy by 186 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Kennedy is ahead by 3.1%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Kennedy by 8 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Kennedy by 44 ----- Trump by 26 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Kennedy by 86 ---------- Trump by 56 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Kennedy by 126 --------------- Trump by 86 | | Odds: | Kennedy: 58.1% — Tie: 2.3% — Trump: 39.6% |
| | Kennedy vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Newsom | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 208 | 330 | Trump by 122 |
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| Expected | 232 | 306 | Trump by 74 |
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| Newsom Best | 329 | 209 | Newsom by 120 |
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The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 1.2%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Trump by 74 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Trump by 26 ----- Trump by 96 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Newsom by 14 ---------- Trump by 120 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Newsom by 50 --------------- Trump by 140 | | Odds: | Newsom: 5.1% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 94.8% |
| | Newsom vs Trump Summary |
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
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