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2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-20 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 2024-03-26 15:49 UTC Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages. All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day! This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY! |
Switch to National Summary
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Trump | Margin |
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Trump Best | 202 | 336 | Trump by 134 |
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Expected | 225 | 313 | Trump by 88 |
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Biden Best | 313 | 225 | Biden by 88 |
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The tipping point state is MI/AZ where Trump is ahead by 3.6%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | Median: | Trump by 88 | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Trump by 58 ----- Trump by 108 | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Trump by 26 ---------- Trump by 134 | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 14 --------------- Trump by 154 | Odds: | Biden: 0.4% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 99.5% |
| Biden vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | DeSantis | Margin |
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DeSantis Best | 212 | 326 | DeSantis by 114 |
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Expected | 276 | 262 | Biden by 14 |
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Biden Best | 377 | 161 | Biden by 216 |
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The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 0.5%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | Median: | DeSantis by 18 | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 34 ----- DeSantis by 56 | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 94 ---------- DeSantis by 88 | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 144 --------------- DeSantis by 114 | Odds: | Biden: 36.4% — Tie: 1.5% — DeSantis: 62.1% |
| Biden vs DeSantis Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Haley | Margin |
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Haley Best | 208 | 330 | Haley by 122 |
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Expected | 337 | 201 | Biden by 136 |
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Biden Best | 413 | 125 | Biden by 288 |
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The tipping point state is TX where Biden is ahead by 1.7%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | Median: | Biden by 38 | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 102 ----- Haley by 28 | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 158 ---------- Haley by 82 | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 202 --------------- Haley by 120 | Odds: | Biden: 71.4% — Tie: 0.7% — Haley: 27.9% |
| Biden vs Haley Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Harris | Trump | Margin |
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Trump Best | 223 | 315 | Trump by 92 |
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Expected | 251 | 287 | Trump by 36 |
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Harris Best | 373 | 165 | Harris by 208 |
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The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.7%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | Median: | Trump by 32 | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Harris by 14 ----- Trump by 64 | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Harris by 60 ---------- Trump by 92 | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Harris by 98 --------------- Trump by 122 | Odds: | Harris: 25.6% — Tie: 1.0% — Trump: 73.4% |
| Harris vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Newsom | Trump | Margin |
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Trump Best | 208 | 330 | Trump by 122 |
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Expected | 276 | 262 | Newsom by 14 |
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Newsom Best | 329 | 209 | Newsom by 120 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Newsom is ahead by 0.2%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | Median: | Trump by 26 | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Newsom by 14 ----- Trump by 62 | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Newsom by 62 ---------- Trump by 92 | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Newsom by 96 --------------- Trump by 122 | Odds: | Newsom: 27.3% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 71.0% |
| Newsom vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Pence | Margin |
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Pence Best | 227 | 311 | Pence by 84 |
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Expected | 276 | 262 | Biden by 14 |
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Biden Best | 373 | 165 | Biden by 208 |
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The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | Median: | Biden by 16 | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 64 ----- Pence by 20 | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 110 ---------- Pence by 56 | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 158 --------------- Pence by 90 | Odds: | Biden: 66.9% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 30.9% |
| Biden vs Pence Summary |
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
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