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2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20231129 12:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20231208 01:24 UTC 
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Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  202  336  Trump by 134 

Expected  236  302  Trump by 66 

Biden Best  304  234  Biden by 70 

The tipping point state is PA where Trump is ahead by 2.8%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Trump by 74  1σ (68.27%) range:  Trump by 46  Trump by 94  2σ (95.45%) range:  Trump by 6  Trump by 114  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 44  Trump by 134  Odds:  Biden: 1.5% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 98.2% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  DeSantis  Margin 

DeSantis Best  227  311  DeSantis by 84 

Expected  260  278  DeSantis by 18 

Biden Best  377  161  Biden by 216 

The tipping point state is WI where DeSantis is ahead by 0.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  DeSantis by 22  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 22  DeSantis by 58  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 82  DeSantis by 86  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 134  DeSantis by 114  Odds:  Biden: 29.5% — Tie: 1.8% — DeSantis: 68.7% 
 Biden vs DeSantis Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Haley  Margin 

Haley Best  208  330  Haley by 122 

Expected  262  276  Haley by 14 

Biden Best  373  165  Biden by 208 

The tipping point state is PA where Haley is ahead by 0.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Haley by 14  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 36  Haley by 64  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 84  Haley by 100  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 132  Haley by 128  Odds:  Biden: 37.2% — Tie: 0.8% — Haley: 61.9% 
 Biden vs Haley Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  223  315  Trump by 92 

Expected  276  262  Harris by 14 

Harris Best  362  176  Harris by 186 

The tipping point state is PA where Harris is ahead by 2.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Harris by 4  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 48  Trump by 36  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 92  Trump by 72  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 130  Trump by 102  Odds:  Harris: 52.2% — Tie: 2.0% — Trump: 45.8% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Pence  Margin 

Pence Best  227  311  Pence by 84 

Expected  276  262  Biden by 14 

Biden Best  373  165  Biden by 208 

The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Biden by 16  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 64  Pence by 20  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 110  Pence by 56  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 154  Pence by 90  Odds:  Biden: 66.8% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 31.0% 
 Biden vs Pence Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Youngkin  Margin 

Youngkin Best  223  315  Youngkin by 92 

Expected  263  275  Youngkin by 12 

Biden Best  346  192  Biden by 154 

The tipping point state is IA/VA where Youngkin is ahead by 0.7%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Youngkin by 12  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 38  Youngkin by 42  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 80  Youngkin by 72  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 118  Youngkin by 104  Odds:  Biden: 39.4% — Tie: 3.5% — Youngkin: 57.1% 
 Biden vs Youngkin Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
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