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2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20230521 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20230526 18:27 UTC 
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Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  221  317  Trump by 96 

Expected  260  278  Trump by 18 

Biden Best  350  188  Biden by 162 

The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 0.2%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Trump by 18  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 26  Trump by 56  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 76  Trump by 88  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 134  Trump by 120  Odds:  Biden: 35.0% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 63.7% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  DeSantis  Margin 

DeSantis Best  223  315  DeSantis by 92 

Expected  270  268  Biden by 2 

Biden Best  360  178  Biden by 182 

The tipping point state is PA/MECD2 where Biden is ahead by 1.8%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  DeSantis by 24  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 8  DeSantis by 56  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 56  DeSantis by 86  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 114  DeSantis by 114  Odds:  Biden: 26.0% — Tie: 5.2% — DeSantis: 68.8% 
 Biden vs DeSantis Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  223  315  Trump by 92 

Expected  276  262  Harris by 14 

Harris Best  346  192  Harris by 154 

The tipping point state is VA where Harris is ahead by 3.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Harris by 8  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 52  Trump by 28  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 92  Trump by 64  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 120  Trump by 98  Odds:  Harris: 57.6% — Tie: 2.1% — Trump: 40.3% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Pence  Margin 

Pence Best  223  315  Pence by 92 

Expected  276  262  Biden by 14 

Biden Best  373  165  Biden by 208 

The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Biden by 14  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 60  Pence by 24  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 106  Pence by 60  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 148  Pence by 92  Odds:  Biden: 63.9% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 33.9% 
 Biden vs Pence Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  DeSantis  Margin 

DeSantis Best  223  315  DeSantis by 92 

Expected  276  262  Harris by 14 

Harris Best  346  192  Harris by 154 

The tipping point state is VA where Harris is ahead by 3.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Harris/DeSantis TIE  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 26  DeSantis by 34  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 74  DeSantis by 68  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 116  DeSantis by 100  Odds:  Harris: 47.4% — Tie: 2.7% — DeSantis: 49.9% 
 Harris vs DeSantis Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Youngkin  Margin 

Youngkin Best  223  315  Youngkin by 92 

Expected  276  262  Biden by 14 

Biden Best  346  192  Biden by 154 

The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 2.0%. 

 Probabilistic Model (Indep States)  Median:  Biden by 2  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 46  Youngkin by 34  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 86  Youngkin by 70  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 120  Youngkin by 100  Odds:  Biden: 50.7% — Tie: 2.7% — Youngkin: 46.7% 
 Biden vs Youngkin Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
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