Currently being updated. Automatic reload in seconds.
|
2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-05-21 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 2023-05-26 18:27 UTC |
Switch to National Summary
|
|---|
Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Trump | Margin |
|---|
| Trump Best | 221 | 317 | Trump by 96 |
|---|
| Expected | 260 | 278 | Trump by 18 |
|---|
| Biden Best | 350 | 188 | Biden by 162 |
|---|
The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 0.2%. |
|---|
| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Trump by 18 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 26 ----- Trump by 56 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 76 ---------- Trump by 88 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 134 --------------- Trump by 120 | | Odds: | Biden: 35.0% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 63.7% |
| | Biden vs Trump Summary |
|---|
|
|---|
Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | DeSantis | Margin |
|---|
| DeSantis Best | 223 | 315 | DeSantis by 92 |
|---|
| Expected | 270 | 268 | Biden by 2 |
|---|
| Biden Best | 360 | 178 | Biden by 182 |
|---|
The tipping point state is PA/ME-CD2 where Biden is ahead by 1.8%. |
|---|
| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | DeSantis by 24 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 8 ----- DeSantis by 56 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 56 ---------- DeSantis by 86 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 114 --------------- DeSantis by 114 | | Odds: | Biden: 26.0% — Tie: 5.2% — DeSantis: 68.8% |
| | Biden vs DeSantis Summary |
|---|
|
|---|
Poll Average Categorization | | Harris | Trump | Margin |
|---|
| Trump Best | 223 | 315 | Trump by 92 |
|---|
| Expected | 276 | 262 | Harris by 14 |
|---|
| Harris Best | 346 | 192 | Harris by 154 |
|---|
The tipping point state is VA where Harris is ahead by 3.5%. |
|---|
| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Harris by 8 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Harris by 52 ----- Trump by 28 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Harris by 92 ---------- Trump by 64 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Harris by 120 --------------- Trump by 98 | | Odds: | Harris: 57.6% — Tie: 2.1% — Trump: 40.3% |
| | Harris vs Trump Summary |
|---|
|
|---|
Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Pence | Margin |
|---|
| Pence Best | 223 | 315 | Pence by 92 |
|---|
| Expected | 276 | 262 | Biden by 14 |
|---|
| Biden Best | 373 | 165 | Biden by 208 |
|---|
The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%. |
|---|
| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Biden by 14 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 60 ----- Pence by 24 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 106 ---------- Pence by 60 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 148 --------------- Pence by 92 | | Odds: | Biden: 63.9% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 33.9% |
| | Biden vs Pence Summary |
|---|
|
|---|
Poll Average Categorization | | Harris | DeSantis | Margin |
|---|
| DeSantis Best | 223 | 315 | DeSantis by 92 |
|---|
| Expected | 276 | 262 | Harris by 14 |
|---|
| Harris Best | 346 | 192 | Harris by 154 |
|---|
The tipping point state is VA where Harris is ahead by 3.5%. |
|---|
| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Harris/DeSantis TIE | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Harris by 26 ----- DeSantis by 34 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Harris by 74 ---------- DeSantis by 68 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Harris by 116 --------------- DeSantis by 100 | | Odds: | Harris: 47.4% — Tie: 2.7% — DeSantis: 49.9% |
| | Harris vs DeSantis Summary |
|---|
|
|---|
Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Youngkin | Margin |
|---|
| Youngkin Best | 223 | 315 | Youngkin by 92 |
|---|
| Expected | 276 | 262 | Biden by 14 |
|---|
| Biden Best | 346 | 192 | Biden by 154 |
|---|
The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 2.0%. |
|---|
| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Biden by 2 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 46 ----- Youngkin by 34 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 86 ---------- Youngkin by 70 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 120 --------------- Youngkin by 100 | | Odds: | Biden: 50.7% — Tie: 2.7% — Youngkin: 46.7% |
| | Biden vs Youngkin Summary |
|---|
|
|---|
| |
| |
| |
|
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.
Like Election Graphs on Facebook.
Read the Election Graphs blog posts.
If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com
If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
Page cached at 2023-05-27 16:45:13 UTC
Original calculation time was 1.412 seconds
Page displayed at 2023-05-28 16:51:50 UTC
Page generated in 0.018 seconds