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2024 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 2023-12-08 01:24 UTC |
Switch to National Summary
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 202 | 336 | Trump by 134 |
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| Expected | 236 | 302 | Trump by 66 |
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| Biden Best | 304 | 234 | Biden by 70 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Trump is ahead by 2.8%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Trump by 74 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Trump by 46 ----- Trump by 94 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Trump by 6 ---------- Trump by 114 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 44 --------------- Trump by 134 | | Odds: | Biden: 1.5% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 98.2% |
| | Biden vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | DeSantis | Margin |
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| DeSantis Best | 227 | 311 | DeSantis by 84 |
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| Expected | 260 | 278 | DeSantis by 18 |
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| Biden Best | 377 | 161 | Biden by 216 |
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The tipping point state is WI where DeSantis is ahead by 0.4%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | DeSantis by 22 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 22 ----- DeSantis by 58 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 82 ---------- DeSantis by 86 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 134 --------------- DeSantis by 114 | | Odds: | Biden: 29.5% — Tie: 1.8% — DeSantis: 68.7% |
| | Biden vs DeSantis Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Haley | Margin |
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| Haley Best | 208 | 330 | Haley by 122 |
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| Expected | 262 | 276 | Haley by 14 |
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| Biden Best | 373 | 165 | Biden by 208 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Haley is ahead by 0.1%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Haley by 14 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 36 ----- Haley by 64 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 84 ---------- Haley by 100 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 132 --------------- Haley by 128 | | Odds: | Biden: 37.2% — Tie: 0.8% — Haley: 61.9% |
| | Biden vs Haley Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Harris | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 223 | 315 | Trump by 92 |
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| Expected | 276 | 262 | Harris by 14 |
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| Harris Best | 362 | 176 | Harris by 186 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Harris is ahead by 2.5%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Harris by 4 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Harris by 48 ----- Trump by 36 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Harris by 92 ---------- Trump by 72 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Harris by 130 --------------- Trump by 102 | | Odds: | Harris: 52.2% — Tie: 2.0% — Trump: 45.8% |
| | Harris vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Pence | Margin |
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| Pence Best | 227 | 311 | Pence by 84 |
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| Expected | 276 | 262 | Biden by 14 |
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| Biden Best | 373 | 165 | Biden by 208 |
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The tipping point state is VA where Biden is ahead by 3.5%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Biden by 16 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 64 ----- Pence by 20 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 110 ---------- Pence by 56 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 154 --------------- Pence by 90 | | Odds: | Biden: 66.8% — Tie: 2.2% — Pence: 31.0% |
| | Biden vs Pence Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Youngkin | Margin |
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| Youngkin Best | 223 | 315 | Youngkin by 92 |
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| Expected | 263 | 275 | Youngkin by 12 |
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| Biden Best | 346 | 192 | Biden by 154 |
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The tipping point state is IA/VA where Youngkin is ahead by 0.7%. |
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| Probabilistic Model (Indep States) | | Median: | Youngkin by 12 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 38 ----- Youngkin by 42 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 80 ---------- Youngkin by 72 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 118 --------------- Youngkin by 104 | | Odds: | Biden: 39.4% — Tie: 3.5% — Youngkin: 57.1% |
| | Biden vs Youngkin Summary |
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
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