2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations in California [55 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2018-01-08 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-03-04 04:15 UTC

State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Biden Trump
58.1% 38.3%
 
Biden up by 19.8%
(Solid Biden)

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 18.4 years.

Biden vs Trump California Details

Warren Trump
58.1% 36.4%
 
Warren up by 21.6%
(Solid Warren)

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 14.4 years.

Warren vs Trump California Details

O'Rourke Trump
58.1% 38.3%
 
O'Rourke up by 19.8%
(Solid O'Rourke)

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 18.3 years.

O'Rourke vs Trump California Details

Harris Trump
58.1% 36.6%
 
Harris up by 21.4%
(Solid Harris)

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 14.4 years.

Harris vs Trump California Details

Sanders Trump
58.1% 38.3%
 
Sanders up by 19.8%
(Solid Sanders)

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 18.3 years.

Sanders vs Trump California Details

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.